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Odds up
Posted by: Whagwan (IP Logged)
Date: 11 July, 2018 08:52

Was on Bet365 putting a couple on the football tonight and I've noticed they've already got odds up for the rugby.

They have Bath to win by 6 in the opening game but interestingly the outright odds put us on 100/1 to win the Prem whilst Wuss are on 250/1.

Re: Odds up
Posted by: Jim H (IP Logged)
Date: 11 July, 2018 08:59

What are the odds on our relegation and are we favorites for it?

Re: Odds up
Posted by: Whagwan (IP Logged)
Date: 11 July, 2018 09:01

Relegation isn't a listed market but going by the odds for winning, Wuss are favourites for relegation by some margin.

Re: Odds up
Posted by: Standardprocedure (IP Logged)
Date: 11 July, 2018 10:29

Depends on the bookie. Ladborkes has us as 200/1 outsiders to win, whereas Wuss are 100/1.

Re: Odds up
Posted by: Whagwan (IP Logged)
Date: 11 July, 2018 11:58

Quote:
Standardprocedure
Depends on the bookie. Ladborkes has us as 200/1 outsiders to win, whereas Wuss are 100/1.

Interesting difference there...

Re: Odds up
Posted by: Rich. (IP Logged)
Date: 11 July, 2018 11:58

Did they watch Worcester at the end of last season! We HAVE to be favs for drop IMO because we are the unknown quantity and the rest are so good and have added quality to their squads over the summer. I don't think we will go down mind you!

IMO Quins are the most likely to be bottom if we are not. By they are a NAME so bookies will assume all will be fixed from last year. But regardless of how good or bad Kingston was as a head coach/DOR, you would hope the players would play for their pride and for their teammates and they just showed a very weak back bone last season and a new Head Coach may help or may not ......

Re: Odds up
Posted by: chuckynut (IP Logged)
Date: 11 July, 2018 12:35

Quote:
Rich.
Did they watch Worcester at the end of last season! We HAVE to be favs for drop IMO because we are the unknown quantity and the rest are so good and have added quality to their squads over the summer. I don't think we will go down mind you!
IMO Quins are the most likely to be bottom if we are not. By they are a NAME so bookies will assume all will be fixed from last year. But regardless of how good or bad Kingston was as a head coach/DOR, you would hope the players would play for their pride and for their teammates and they just showed a very weak back bone last season and a new Head Coach may help or may not ......

Agree, we should be strong favourites for the drop: we did so badly last time up and the other teams were all pretty competitive last season.

If any of us, Quins, Saints, Warriors (and maybe at B**h to the list) are far adrift at the end of the first block of fixtures then think that'll be them at the bottom for the duration.

We have to start well, 2 wins and 4BPs as an absolute minimum.

Re: Odds up
Posted by: Gray_Lensman (IP Logged)
Date: 11 July, 2018 15:54

Quins, Saints and us. Although I have a feeling Wasps might have some issues.

Re: Odds up
Posted by: JamboBris (IP Logged)
Date: 11 July, 2018 17:15

Lawes and Gibson aside, not too many of saints forwards came out of last year with much credit. I know Waller got injured who's a mainstay of their pack but even so I wasn't impressed.

Quins were dire at times given the number of caps they can field.

Not saying they'll be for the drop for a minute but will be interested to see how Exeter go given the increasing number of internationals that will be absent compared to past seasons.

Worcester every season look like they should improve and never seem to. Hope it isn't a straight shootout between the two of us and some other teams have to worry.

Re: Odds up
Posted by: Rich. (IP Logged)
Date: 11 July, 2018 20:36

I'd expect us to improve the most as the season goes on (as Irish did) so I won't be despairing if we are a bit isolated early on.

Re: Odds up
Posted by: BS7 (IP Logged)
Date: 11 July, 2018 21:47

Most have recruited well and based on the latter part of last season, Saints & Harlequins must be worried, could be a 3-way fight with us, just hope not. If any side deserves a bit of luck, I think we do as had more of our share of heart ache. Worcs will be stronger unless they are imbalanced as a side & get the jitters but think not.Usual suspects at the top again I feel although Glos might be a bit more consistent and be in the mix.

Re: Odds up
Posted by: thorpebayexile (IP Logged)
Date: 11 July, 2018 22:27

Not too sure about worcs. Their current owner wants out but had to invest to keep them up. The ownership uncertainty for another draining financial year will be a strain.

Re: Odds up
Posted by: Rich. (IP Logged)
Date: 12 July, 2018 06:35

But pretty sure Worcester have recruited well so suggests plug not about to be pulled and Duckworth won't leave them in the lurch but will only sell when he happy new owner will maintain his legacy.

Yes Saints a mess last year but they got a lot better at end, Inc win v Tigers. Still chance they might struggle mind. Until the last 3 weeks of season I'd have said Bath would be in the fight (& they still might). Did they eventually realise how they need to play at the end or did the results give a false impression? I believe think Blackadder bowed to pressure to change tactics and it worked and so they will do ok enough.

all of this said, although all the Premiership sides generally looked great when playing each other last year the results in Europe suggest they may have slipped and therefore perhaps we will have a greater chance than we think!!

We need good luck with injuries. but also Pat has had the luxury that many coaches have not had in being able to bring in or develop players who all meet the Vision he has for how he wants us to play. he has brought in ball-playing skillful forwards who will help link with the backs and create the 15 main game he wants and which was not always possible last season with the odd one or two players we had.

Re: Odds up
Posted by: tbr (IP Logged)
Date: 12 July, 2018 09:11

Remember... bookies produce a book via risk assessment or damage limitation in line with how much money they could lose if a particular sporting result should happen.
This is usually (but not always) in line with actually likelihood of that result actually happening (as your average punter isn't completely daft) but the book isn't at all soley based on the likelihood of that event happening. That isn't how bookmakers work.

An example.
Tony McCoy was often artificially VERY short priced favourite in the races he rode in.
Not primarily because he was far more likely to win than other jockeys.
But because he was probably a bit more likely to win but the bookies shortened his odds artificially to limit potential damage if he did win... as being the punters and or housewives favourite... the bookies would expect a bigger total stake on him than perhaps other jockeys and therefore face a bigger payout/loss.

Bookmakers will vary a bit (although the wuss/Bris difference above is a little puzzling) but I would suggest that many bookies MIGHT put forward the notion (if pushed) that there might be more potential for more Bris money on a Premership win than Wuss money.
So I'd expect our odds to be perhaps shortened slightly. Compared to sayyyy Wuss.
This doesn't necessarily mean bookies think a Bris Premiership win is more likely than a Wuss Premiership win ... but more that if Bris DO win... any damage to the bookies' coffers is mitigated somewhat.

All a bit far fetched though really... and not a huge influence on this particular book at this particular time... as the ACTUAL likelihood of either Wuss or Bris winning the Premiership is at best... very unlikely indeed.


I hope all this makes sense.

I just wanted to point out that the difference in price on Bris or Wuss to win the Premiership at any specific bookies doesn't reflect the bookies view on the sole difference in likelihood of either of those teams actually winning.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 12/07/2018 09:12 by tbr.

Re: Odds up
Posted by: Rich. (IP Logged)
Date: 16 July, 2018 07:59

I'd forgotten that Taqele Naiyaravoro is joining Saints! If he stays fit then I think we can count them out of the relegation dog fight.

Re: Odds up
Posted by: JamboBris (IP Logged)
Date: 16 July, 2018 10:30

Biggar at 10 usually sits deep so will be interested to see how well he can get saints back line going. Naiyaravoro very good player for sure though.

Re: Odds up
Posted by: Whagwan (IP Logged)
Date: 17 July, 2018 07:45

£10 on Bris to win the Prem, don't let me down boys! (Sm128)

(Yeah I know, but tell that to Leicester City fans from a couple of years ago)

Re: Odds up
Posted by: Furriner (IP Logged)
Date: 17 July, 2018 09:46

As far as I can see weíve got two Prem games during the autumn international window: Wasps and Exeter. Hopefully thatíll improve the odds of us pulling it off against two of the better sides.

Re: Odds up
Posted by: Furriner (IP Logged)
Date: 17 July, 2018 09:53

Then is it Wasps, Northampton and Wuss during the 6 Nations? Each of them will lose team members to the international matches Iíd have thought.

I know this sounds a bit negative, but being Bris attempting to cling in there for a season or two of bedding in, we need every advantage going imo.

Re: Odds up
Posted by: Standardprocedure (IP Logged)
Date: 17 July, 2018 10:54

Won't we be losing our Samoan and Tongan players during the AIs too?

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