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Top 4 Tracker 70 points target
Posted by: BathJoe88 (IP Logged)
Date: 13 September, 2017 13:53

Hey guys,

Long time reader, first time poster - apologies if someone has already submitted something like this but thought I would share!

I've seen the tracker which shows how Bath are doing vs last season and it got me thinking about judging how I could track our progress towards a top 4 finish in a simple way.

Looking back at the last several seasons, reaching 70 points more or less guarantees top 4 - usually with a couple of points to spare.

This is fairly crude but we can achieve this by setting out the following targets which given the odd exception I don't think are too unrealistic to aim for.

Win all home games: 11 x 4pts = 44pts
Win away vs bottom 5 teams: 5 x 4pts = 20pts
Secure losing bonus point away vs top 6: 6 x 1pts = 6pts

"Bottom 5" and Top 6" refers to the final positions of each team last year. It also excludes Bath from the equation technically making it a table of 11 teams (so Northampton would technically count as a top 6 side despite finishing 7th). London Irish take the place this year of the relegated Bristol.

This totals exactly 70 points. Obviously there will be upsets (arguably Sarries at home wouldn't fit this mold as many expected a loss) but it is the simplest approach I could think of to deliver the right number of points. It also doesn't factor in winning bonus points which could obviously negate the odd upset.

So far this season then:

Leicester Away:
Target = 1pts
Actual = 4pts

Sarries Home:
Target = 4pts
Actual = 4pts

Totals:
Target: 5pts
Actual: 8pts

So essentially according to my crude method, Bath are 3 points ahead of schedule. Or as a percentage we are 11% of the way towards 70 points vs a target of 7% - so a great start!

Not perfect, possibly pointless, but I thought I'd share it anyway!

Can update if anyone other than me cares and if someone tells me how to paste in an excel table without screwing up the formatting or post a screenshot I can make it much more aesthetic and laydown the table for the whole season.

Cheers

Re: Top 4 Tracker 70 points target
Posted by: Which Tyler (IP Logged)
Date: 13 September, 2017 14:10

Welcome to the board - posting Excel sheets is best done by taking a screenshot of them and opsting the jpg.

As for the system - the previous Ed. used to run a similar thread; a like-for-like comparison of the current season to the previous couple, along with aggragate difference. I'm sure he'd be more than happy for you to take over (but I could always be wrong - it does happen sometimes...)



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Re: Top 4 Tracker 70 points target
Posted by: Pie-Half (IP Logged)
Date: 13 September, 2017 14:53

i beleive the average for 4th is around 64pts i seem to remember from last seasons ending



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Re: Top 4 Tracker 70 points target
Posted by: BathJoe88 (IP Logged)
Date: 13 September, 2017 18:33

It's about 66 points on average over the last 5 years.

Highest requirement in the last 5 years is 68 points so 70 *should* be enough to comfortably qualify for playoffs.

Re: Top 4 Tracker 70 points target
Posted by: hasta (IP Logged)
Date: 13 September, 2017 19:36

The rough rule Stu used to have was 'win all your home games plus 4 away games = top four'.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 13/09/2017 19:38 by hasta.

Re: Top 4 Tracker 70 points target
Posted by: Bath Hammer (IP Logged)
Date: 14 September, 2017 00:01

It's an interesting approach for a change BJ so give it a go. It's best to make it a challenging target.

Re: Top 4 Tracker 70 points target
Posted by: gaz59 (IP Logged)
Date: 14 September, 2017 07:07

As Wasps and Quins have found there is no easy, obvious 5 pointer and if you look beyond Irish and Worcs for the bottom 2 places then look at the starting 15 for the teams you think most likely to be placed at 9th and 10th

The AP is getting increasingly competitive and the points difference between 3rd and 8th will be small - 70 points will smash a play off position

Re: Top 4 Tracker 70 points target
Posted by: jayeatman (IP Logged)
Date: 14 September, 2017 14:41

Quote:
BathJoe88
Hey guys,
Win all home games: 11 x 4pts = 44pts
Win away vs bottom 5 teams: 5 x 4pts = 20pts
Secure losing bonus point away vs top 6: 6 x 1pts = 6pts

Cheers

A man after my own heart!
This is pretty much what we achieved in coming second in 2014/5 when I think we beat all the bottom 6 away.
Last season, our undoing was to lose away to the bottom 4 teams and winning those away game this season will be the hardest thing, especially when they are on plastic!

Obviously you're not going to be on the winning side in every close game, last year it was 50/50. It probably felt worse because most of the losses were at the end of the season, but you'd hope for a few TBPs to go with the LBPs and compensate for the odd slip up.

Re: Top 4 Tracker 70 points target
Posted by: BathJoe88 (IP Logged)
Date: 01 October, 2017 16:01

So the win at Leicester away gave us a cracking start which we backed up with a home win at sarries to leave us on 8 points vs a target of 5.

The (non bonus point) loss at Northampton left us on 8 points vs a target of 6 so still a decent start.

Targeting a win against Newcastle at home we came up short, but 4 tries and a losing BP meant we picked up the 2 points necessary to leave us on 10 total points vs a target of 10 so bang on course.

Todays great result gave us 4 points vs a target of 1 to leave us 3 points ahead of schedule!

Target: 11
Current: 14

Overall, we've navigated a very tricky start to the season pretty well and with the first quarter of the season almost over we've already played 3 of the top 7 teams last year away from home.

Hopefully we can push on and if we can stay strong at home there's every chance we can make a real push for top 4.

Bathjoe

Re: Top 4 Tracker 70 points target
Posted by: dcsh (IP Logged)
Date: 01 October, 2017 16:08

Good to know, thanks for the update.

Re: Top 4 Tracker 70 points target
Posted by: gaz59 (IP Logged)
Date: 01 October, 2017 17:31

Did any team last year [or year before for that matter] beat Tiggers away, Sarries at home and Wasps away?

Had we kept our heads in the Saints game after doing so well for the first 36 minutes and then closed out the Newcastle game when clearly ahead we would be purring

On the other hand to ship so many tries to Saints and gift Falcons a 5 pointer at the Rec does suggest the old soft vulnerable under belly is still with us

Weird!

Re: Top 4 Tracker 70 points target
Posted by: OutsideBath (IP Logged)
Date: 02 October, 2017 09:40

Losing at Saints is no shame, but losing at home to Falcons does suggest we have some fundamental weakness.

We seem to be a really inconsistent team, beat Tigers, Sarries and Wasps then lose to Falcons!



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Re: Top 4 Tracker 70 points target
Posted by: Which Tyler (IP Logged)
Date: 02 October, 2017 10:36

Quote:
OutsideBath
Losing at Saints is no shame, but losing at home to Falcons does suggest we have some fundamental weakness.
We seem to be a really inconsistent team, beat Tigers, Sarries and Wasps then lose to Falcons!
The implication is that you don't consider Falcons to be a good team - which puts you a couple of years out of date.


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Re: Top 4 Tracker 70 points target
Posted by: Big Dog (IP Logged)
Date: 02 October, 2017 10:49

Quote:
Which Tyler
Quote:
OutsideBath
Losing at Saints is no shame, but losing at home to Falcons does suggest we have some fundamental weakness.
We seem to be a really inconsistent team, beat Tigers, Sarries and Wasps then lose to Falcons!
The implication is that you don't consider Falcons to be a good team - which puts you a couple of years out of date.

Burn...

To be fair though WT does raise a good point which is that we probably do not perceive Falcons to be a threat but really we should. They have started the season tremendously well and were well deserving of their win against us to be fair. We should also count our blessings really that we got two losing bonus points at that given that we were 19-0 down in 20 minutes and how tight the league is this year they may be vital points in the end for top 4 places.

For me they are definitely top 4 if not title contenders if they continue as they are!



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Re: Top 4 Tracker 70 points target
Posted by: OutsideBath (IP Logged)
Date: 02 October, 2017 11:28

Quote:
Which Tyler
Quote:
OutsideBath
Losing at Saints is no shame, but losing at home to Falcons does suggest we have some fundamental weakness.
We seem to be a really inconsistent team, beat Tigers, Sarries and Wasps then lose to Falcons!
The implication is that you don't consider Falcons to be a good team - which puts you a couple of years out of date.

It's possible that I have let my intense dislike for them cloud my judgement, however when you look at who they have played so far I do believe they are in a slightly false position.



Jack Wilson - Adopted player 2017/18

Re: Top 4 Tracker 70 points target
Posted by: BathJoe88 (IP Logged)
Date: 08 October, 2017 10:03

Right back on track after yesterdays victory against Worcester.

A home game so obviously targeting a win and this was one of those games where you hope for a bonus point to give ourselves a bit of breathing room. The 4 tries means we pull one point further ahead of our season target to date:

Target: 15 pts
Current: 19 pts

We are now over 25% through the season and 4 points ahead of schedule which allows us a potential wobble at some point.

That being said, upcoming home games and match ups vs weaker opposition do mean we will need to put a run together over the next 3 games. Heres hoping we can do that now!

Would've taken this at the start of the season.

Bathjoe88

Re: Top 4 Tracker 70 points target
Posted by: BathJoe88 (IP Logged)
Date: 10 October, 2017 12:20

[ibb.co]

Finally worked out how to do this - Screenshot of my table saved here.

Re: Top 4 Tracker 70 points target
Posted by: Bathovalballer (IP Logged)
Date: 10 October, 2017 12:40

Be assured Newcastle are no mugs and have achieved their excellent start without their 'new stars' Flood and Mermoz starting yet.

They play an all action, running game, backing up and off loading close to any breach in a defense. They may lack a real speedster but have huge experience in players like Gonova and their scrum half, workmanlike mobile pack with the excellent Wilson to the fore, very much like Exeter's game plan of 2/3 seasons ago. They will continue to beat other, better on paper sides, and will not be weakened by international call ups either.

IMO a true force to be reckoned with and could easily be in the top 4 at the end of the season.

Re: Top 4 Tracker 70 points target
Posted by: hasta (IP Logged)
Date: 10 October, 2017 14:16

I suspect Newcastle will be 5th-6th.

Re: Top 4 Tracker 70 points target
Posted by: Which Tyler (IP Logged)
Date: 10 October, 2017 15:14

I think there's so little to choose between 3rd and 10th that luck could make the difference across that range.
In terms of quality of squad (team and backroom) call it "par":
Saracens and Wasps are top of the pile

Bath, Exeter & Leicester are much of a muchness; and only slightly behind them are
Gloucester, Harlequins, Newcastle, Northampton & Sale are also much of a muchness

Bristol, LIrish & Worcester all pretty close to each other



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