Top 4 Tracker 70 points target
Posted by: BathJoe88 (IP Logged)
Date: 13 September, 2017 14:53

Hey guys,

Long time reader, first time poster - apologies if someone has already submitted something like this but thought I would share!

I've seen the tracker which shows how Bath are doing vs last season and it got me thinking about judging how I could track our progress towards a top 4 finish in a simple way.

Looking back at the last several seasons, reaching 70 points more or less guarantees top 4 - usually with a couple of points to spare.

This is fairly crude but we can achieve this by setting out the following targets which given the odd exception I don't think are too unrealistic to aim for.

Win all home games: 11 x 4pts = 44pts
Win away vs bottom 5 teams: 5 x 4pts = 20pts
Secure losing bonus point away vs top 6: 6 x 1pts = 6pts

"Bottom 5" and Top 6" refers to the final positions of each team last year. It also excludes Bath from the equation technically making it a table of 11 teams (so Northampton would technically count as a top 6 side despite finishing 7th). London Irish take the place this year of the relegated Bristol.

This totals exactly 70 points. Obviously there will be upsets (arguably Sarries at home wouldn't fit this mold as many expected a loss) but it is the simplest approach I could think of to deliver the right number of points. It also doesn't factor in winning bonus points which could obviously negate the odd upset.

So far this season then:

Leicester Away:
Target = 1pts
Actual = 4pts

Sarries Home:
Target = 4pts
Actual = 4pts

Totals:
Target: 5pts
Actual: 8pts

So essentially according to my crude method, Bath are 3 points ahead of schedule. Or as a percentage we are 11% of the way towards 70 points vs a target of 7% - so a great start!

Not perfect, possibly pointless, but I thought I'd share it anyway!

Can update if anyone other than me cares and if someone tells me how to paste in an excel table without screwing up the formatting or post a screenshot I can make it much more aesthetic and laydown the table for the whole season.

Cheers

Re: Top 4 Tracker 70 points target
Posted by: Which Tyler (IP Logged)
Date: 13 September, 2017 15:10

Welcome to the board - posting Excel sheets is best done by taking a screenshot of them and opsting the jpg.

As for the system - the previous Ed. used to run a similar thread; a like-for-like comparison of the current season to the previous couple, along with aggragate difference. I'm sure he'd be more than happy for you to take over (but I could always be wrong - it does happen sometimes...)



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Re: Top 4 Tracker 70 points target
Posted by: Pie-Half (IP Logged)
Date: 13 September, 2017 15:53

i beleive the average for 4th is around 64pts i seem to remember from last seasons ending



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Re: Top 4 Tracker 70 points target
Posted by: BathJoe88 (IP Logged)
Date: 13 September, 2017 19:33

It's about 66 points on average over the last 5 years.

Highest requirement in the last 5 years is 68 points so 70 *should* be enough to comfortably qualify for playoffs.

Re: Top 4 Tracker 70 points target
Posted by: hasta (IP Logged)
Date: 13 September, 2017 20:36

The rough rule Stu used to have was 'win all your home games plus 4 away games = top four'.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 13/09/2017 20:38 by hasta.

Re: Top 4 Tracker 70 points target
Posted by: Bath Hammer (IP Logged)
Date: 14 September, 2017 01:01

It's an interesting approach for a change BJ so give it a go. It's best to make it a challenging target.

Re: Top 4 Tracker 70 points target
Posted by: gaz59 (IP Logged)
Date: 14 September, 2017 08:07

As Wasps and Quins have found there is no easy, obvious 5 pointer and if you look beyond Irish and Worcs for the bottom 2 places then look at the starting 15 for the teams you think most likely to be placed at 9th and 10th

The AP is getting increasingly competitive and the points difference between 3rd and 8th will be small - 70 points will smash a play off position

Re: Top 4 Tracker 70 points target
Posted by: jayeatman (IP Logged)
Date: 14 September, 2017 15:41

Quote:
BathJoe88
Hey guys,
Win all home games: 11 x 4pts = 44pts
Win away vs bottom 5 teams: 5 x 4pts = 20pts
Secure losing bonus point away vs top 6: 6 x 1pts = 6pts

Cheers

A man after my own heart!
This is pretty much what we achieved in coming second in 2014/5 when I think we beat all the bottom 6 away.
Last season, our undoing was to lose away to the bottom 4 teams and winning those away game this season will be the hardest thing, especially when they are on plastic!

Obviously you're not going to be on the winning side in every close game, last year it was 50/50. It probably felt worse because most of the losses were at the end of the season, but you'd hope for a few TBPs to go with the LBPs and compensate for the odd slip up.

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