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Big Underdogs....
Posted by: greenwood (IP Logged)
Date: 16 May, 2018 10:42

Saracens 2/13
Tie 25/1
Wasps 9/2

Wasps + 12.5 pts 10/11

No point in turning up then is there.....

Re: Big Underdogs....
Posted by: Tervueren (IP Logged)
Date: 16 May, 2018 10:46

Put £50 on Wasps to win and it pays for a celebration afterwards.

Re: Big Underdogs....
Posted by: greenwood (IP Logged)
Date: 16 May, 2018 10:47

What time do you want me there ?

Re: Big Underdogs....
Posted by: Heathen (IP Logged)
Date: 16 May, 2018 10:49

When you look at the stats, the bookies have it about right. However, anything can happen in 80 minutes.

Re: Big Underdogs....
Posted by: Tervueren (IP Logged)
Date: 16 May, 2018 10:55

Perhaps a few of the Sarries team will throw sickies to watch the wedding.

We've just got to do all we can to make the place sound like it is a Wasps home match.

Re: Big Underdogs....
Posted by: kentwasp1 (IP Logged)
Date: 16 May, 2018 10:58

Iíll be there thanks to a gent on this site

Re: Big Underdogs....
Posted by: DGPWasp (IP Logged)
Date: 16 May, 2018 13:13

I know Sarries are strong favourites, but that looks like a pretty generous price on Wasps in a two horse race.

Re: Big Underdogs....
Posted by: ricohchezwasp (IP Logged)
Date: 16 May, 2018 14:09

Surely you can be too big to be under a dog !?



Not a Doctor and not a troll!!

Re: Big Underdogs....
Posted by: greenwood (IP Logged)
Date: 16 May, 2018 14:39

Er ?
A small underdog would be + 0.5pt
A real big underdog would be Pertemps Bees +35Pts....

OH NO !!

Re: Big Underdogs....
Posted by: welsh wasp (IP Logged)
Date: 16 May, 2018 14:49

So not worth an investment greenwood?

Re: Big Underdogs....
Posted by: kentwasp1 (IP Logged)
Date: 16 May, 2018 19:29

Caution cast into the north London wind. Placed £30 bet on BET365, and if we prevail I get £150. Any DW at Allianz Park after the match please head to nearest bar afterwards and PM me - drinks on me. Be so pleased to spend it on you guys.
This is my first EVER bet (I had no clue about all the option 3 way, 2 way etc), so if I win this may be the start of a downward slide into insanity and addiction

Re: Big Underdogs....
Posted by: Heathen (IP Logged)
Date: 16 May, 2018 19:46

Quote:
greenwood
Er ?
A small underdog would be + 0.5pt
A real big underdog would be Pertemps Bees +35Pts....

OH NO !!

One of my biggest regrets is that I never put a K on them at 250/1!!!!!

Re: Big Underdogs....
Posted by: roberth72 (IP Logged)
Date: 16 May, 2018 20:51

3/1 now on skybet maybe with hughes back they think it maybe a bit closer

Re: Big Underdogs....
Posted by: roberth72 (IP Logged)
Date: 16 May, 2018 20:59

Exeter game priced up very similar which makes sense given our 2nd half wobble but these are essentially knock out games, who would have though Liverpool would smash man city!! It is possible lets hope so

Re: Big Underdogs....
Posted by: Barnetsarrie12 (IP Logged)
Date: 16 May, 2018 21:18

It is a knock out game so anything can happen but I think both games are priced right and reasonably. Both home teams are favourites, very few teams win away from home in the premiership playoffs and Sarries and Exeter are better teams than both away teams.

In a one off game, anybody can win so you can never discount anybody despite the odds but it will be a surprise to see either away team win on saturday and the bookies are right

Re: Big Underdogs....
Posted by: Buzzil (IP Logged)
Date: 16 May, 2018 21:54

I would debate that they are better teams than Wasps - definitely more consistent though

Re: Big Underdogs....
Posted by: Barnetsarrie12 (IP Logged)
Date: 16 May, 2018 23:02

I would say a team with 6 lions players would probably be better than the other team. Player for player especially in the forwards, the sarries players are not only more accomplished, they have had higher peaks and are better players. Now that does not necessarily translate to wins but the forward pack that you will play on saturday has 4 lions starters and a player in Billy who was also chosen for the lions, that is more than half the pack. You don't have one.

There are very few teams that I would say are better or comparable to sarries, Leinster being a team that comes to mind. Exeter vs Newcastle is the same thing.

You then combine that with the fact that we beat you twice this year with a bonus point each time and since 2015, when we have played Itoje and Billy in a game against Wasps, we have never lost and we are playing at home, it will be a surprise if we lost, does not mean we won't lose but there is a reason why the odds are the way they are and part of it is because the sarries team is better

Re: Big Underdogs....
Posted by: westwaleswasp (IP Logged)
Date: 16 May, 2018 23:26

Quote:
Barnetsarrie12
I would say a team with 6 lions players would probably be better than the other team. Player for player especially in the forwards, the sarries players are not only more accomplished, they have had higher peaks and are better players. Now that does not necessarily translate to wins but the forward pack that you will play on saturday has 4 lions starters and a player in Billy who was also chosen for the lions, that is more than half the pack. You don't have one.
There are very few teams that I would say are better or comparable to sarries, Leinster being a team that comes to mind. Exeter vs Newcastle is the same thing.

You then combine that with the fact that we beat you twice this year with a bonus point each time and since 2015, when we have played Itoje and Billy in a game against Wasps, we have never lost and we are playing at home, it will be a surprise if we lost, does not mean we won't lose but there is a reason why the odds are the way they are and part of it is because the sarries team is better

To be fair regarding this year's away result.....we rested a large number from a massively depleted team because of our 5 day turnaround in Europe. Our team was-

Wasps: Le Roux; Watson, Daly, Macken, Bassett; Miller, Simpson; Mullan (capt), Johnson, Moore, Garratt, Rowlands, Haskell, Willis, Young.

Replacements: Cruse, Harris, Cooper-Woolley, Gaskell, Willis, Robson, De Jongh, Wade.


For comparison few months previously we beat Sarries similarly rested/weakened team 35-15 with

Beale; Wade, Daly, Gopperth, Le Roux; Cipriani, Simpson; Mullan, T Taylor, Cooper-Woolley, Launchbury (capt), Symons, Haskell, Young, Hughes.

Replacements: Johnson for Taylor (18), Swainston for Cooper-Woolley (23) Robson for Simpson (55), McIntyre for Mullan (64), Thompson for Haskell (64), Myall for Symons (69), Bassett for le Roux (72)

To be equally fair one of your Lions is Kruis, who is well behind JL in international stakes, and probably behind several others now. Haskell was selected for the Lions after Billy's injury and probably won't make our starters, I am not entirely sure red or even white shirt appearances make much difference. Wigglesworth was England's scrum half in the 6n after call up, but you would swap him for Robson in a heartbeat.

I do think Sarries will win- they should as we are away and the stats massively favour home teams. I also think wasps have the better backs- by a mile- more probably- but that it probably won't matter too much given our defensive travails this year. If we click and play for 80 it would be very interesting, but that has been beyond us this year.

Re: Big Underdogs....
Posted by: Barnetsarrie12 (IP Logged)
Date: 16 May, 2018 23:29

Actually I am sorry 7 lions players if you include Liam Williams and 8 if you include Maitland but i won't as he is not a test lion. Half of the team played the lions, the others have won in the last 3 years 2 european cups and 2 prem titles. You can argue on many things and the result but player for player, sarries have a much better team than wasps

Re: Big Underdogs....
Posted by: Barnetsarrie12 (IP Logged)
Date: 16 May, 2018 23:42

That is not true that Kruis is behind Launchbury Westwales, the last game that England played, please remind me who started that game and who was on the bench, if i remember correctly and i am sure i do, Kruis started and Launchbury was on the bench and Launchbury is behind Itoje in the England pecking order if we want to play that game.

Now even if you take out the lions factor and judging players which can be highly subjective, what is not subjective are numbers.

This season we had more points than you, scored more tries than you or anyone else, conceded less than anyone and our points difference was the highest in the league by a mile and you don't have a good defense so there is no area of the game, points, attack, wins where we did not do better this season than you, hence why we are playing at home.

You combine that with the lions factor and the fact that you are facing a team that has won 4 major trophies in the last 3 years and you have none and I don't know how you can say with any objective proof that Wasps have a better team than Saracens. Also Itoje has been a professional since 2015, he has played Wasps at least 5 times and never lost a game to wasps and the only two games you have won against us home or away or on neutral ground in the last 3 years was during the six nations period in 2016 when we were missing virtually 90 percent of our starters and the game before the european cup final last year where we also rested most of our starters.

Now again that does not mean we will win and that is the beauty of a one game elimination but in terms of teams, the sarries team is better and that is why the odds are massively in sarries favour with the book makers, if they thought the wasps team was nearly as good, the odds will be much closer than they are

It is a bit like Munster vs Leinster, Munster can beat Leinster this weekend, that does not mean Munster has a better team than Leinster.

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