Next 3 games
Posted by: WesternWanderer (IP Logged)
Date: 21 September, 2018 11:25

I think performances in the next 3 games will give us a reasonable assessment of where we're at. These are all games we can win - tough, but winable.

Win 3 out of 3 - pushing Top 4.
Win 2 out of 3 - 5/6 mid table respectability
Win 1 out of 3 not much progress on last season
Win 0 out of 3 - OMG relegation concerns.

Admittedly results not everything - team could play really well and but for a bounce of ball, strange referee interpretation could lose, but think it will be indicative.

Think we should beat Bristol and the other two are very tight to call. What do you guys reckon?

Re: Next 3 games
Posted by: St Marcus (IP Logged)
Date: 21 September, 2018 12:04

Pretty much agree with your summary there. 0 wins would be bad news, I think most likely it'll be one or two.

We're probably least likely to beat Bath, should (trying not to count chickens) beat Bristol and Tigers is more or less 50-50 (hopefully home support will count, to give us a slight advantage).

I think out play has generally looked better than last season, but we still look prone to suspect decision making/ execution at the end of tight matches.

Re: Next 3 games
Posted by: andysaint (IP Logged)
Date: 21 September, 2018 12:47

Bristol will certainly target us at home, Bath will be a 50:50 depending on which Bath side shows up and Leicester will be a tricky game considering we have given away home advantage and they are playing better now there has been a change in management. We could lose all three, we could win all three we could win one or two. I think we have to target a miminum of 8 points. If after 6 games of the season we are stuck on 10 points or less, I think there should be concerns as to how are season is going.

Re: Next 3 games
Posted by: Duckonstilts (IP Logged)
Date: 21 September, 2018 12:57

I expect we will get about 7-9 points out of these games. That would be a fair result IMO.

I would take 2 close wins OR one good win and two close losses. Obviously more would be nice but I need to be realistic.

What I dont want to see though is a return to rugby by numbers. It will take time to get the team all firing under the new structure but you have to stick at it.

Re: Next 3 games
Posted by: Saint Stokey (IP Logged)
Date: 21 September, 2018 13:56

i think we should be targetting 15 points.

It may not happen, but there's no point going out not intending to get the maximum points.

I think we'll beat Bristol. If our forwards can hold their own, we can beat Bath. Looking at the backs, on the whole, i would prefer to have ours over theirs.

15. Tuala
14. Naiyaravoro
13. Symons/ Brew - I don't know much about either
12. Francis
11. Cokanasiga
10. Biggar
9. Reinach.

As for Leicester, i wonder how much of their apparant resurgence is down to a 'feel good' factor about Murphy taking over. You'd have to assume that Worcester won't be too much of a struggle, but Sale could be tricky. A poor performance may knock the wind out of their sails, in the same was as it could do with us.

So realistically for me, 10 points.

Re: Next 3 games
Posted by: SaintMaul (IP Logged)
Date: 21 September, 2018 17:38

I liked your analysis WW.

Zero wins and that's 1 win from 6 games. Equally when was the last time we won 3 games on the trot away from home (ie not at Franklin's Gardens). Probably when we we got in the Top 4.

I'd add we've gained no bonus points in 3 games. I've enjoyed watching the style of play so far this season by that lack of ruthlessness/accuracy is not top 4 behaviour IMHO.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 21/09/2018 17:43 by SaintMaul.

Re: Next 3 games
Posted by: Saint Stokey (IP Logged)
Date: 21 September, 2018 17:46

We've lost to Sarries and Gloucester, 1st and 3rd.

There was a poll where most of us suspected we'd finish 5th or 6th. So if thats the prediction, why are we surprised to lose against 2 top 4 teams. It should become a concern when we dont beat the likes of Bath, Quins or Sale.

Re: Next 3 games
Posted by: MarchingIn (IP Logged)
Date: 21 September, 2018 19:11

It comes more down to points than wins in my view. They could and should have got 1-2 of them instead of 0 last week.

If Saints win 2 out of 3 with 3 or less tries and no LBP, that's 8 points

If Saints win 1 out of 3 with 4 tries, but pick up 3 from 4 bonus points in the losing games, that's also 8 points.

It really doesn't matter which way you get 8 points, they are all counted the same way.

1x5 point win and 2x2 point losses for 9 points IS better than 2x4 point wins and a 0 point loss!

8 points from 3 games = 58-59 points out of a season = 6th place last year.

8 points is the minimum required to show meaningful progress. Less is not neccesarily a disaster, it just shows things will take time. 12 points or less from the next 6 games and real concern would set in for me.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 22/09/2018 15:27 by MarchingIn.

Re: Next 3 games
Posted by: SaintMaul (IP Logged)
Date: 21 September, 2018 23:09

Quote:
Saint Stokey
We've lost to Sarries and Gloucester, 1st and 3rd.
There was a poll where most of us suspected we'd finish 5th or 6th. So if thats the prediction, why are we surprised to lose against 2 top 4 teams. It should become a concern when we dont beat the likes of Bath, Quins or Sale.

17% thought we'd make top 4 i.e. just under 1 in 5 Saints forum members who voted.

For me it's less the losses, which were predictable, but rather not picking up any bonus points on early Autumn firm pitches when most games are seeing one or even both teams picking up bonus points. For example Tigers managed a try bonus plus losing bonus point playing away at Wasps despite playing half the game a man down after Spencer's red card.



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 21/09/2018 23:17 by SaintMaul.

Re: Next 3 games
Posted by: ancient mariner (IP Logged)
Date: 22 September, 2018 13:28

[We're probably least likely to beat Bath, should (trying not to count chickens) beat Bristol and Tigers is more or less 50-50 (hopefully home support will count, to give us a slight advantage).[/quote]

Tigers have twice the FG capacity and a typical gate that's also twice Saints', so I seriously doubt there will be more Saints fans at Twickers than Tigers fans as it's not an actual "home" game, where we have a good season ticket base. I wonder how many ST holders will go down to London, with all the hassle, when it's on TV?

Re: Next 3 games
Posted by: airdog (IP Logged)
Date: 22 September, 2018 18:24

in case the news has not reached you yet Bris beat Quins 17 10 today with the pundits saying Bris the best team .

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