Aviva Premiership 2010/11 Preview
By ChrisC
August 27 2010
In the dog days of the closed season I have been looking forward to the forthcoming season with its new sponsor and newcomer Exeter Chiefs. I am indebted to Yorkie for all his dedication in keeping his Premiership Movements thread up to date, his diligence has made my task all the easier. I hope to produce previews for the Tigers’ matches during the season but in the meantime:
The 2009/10 season was one of the closest I can recall with Tigers once again triumphing but by just 2 points from second placed Northampton.
At the bottom Worcester finally succumbed and were relegated by amassing 28 points, just four more than their nearest rivals for the big drop; Sale Sharks.
Tigers accumulated the most match points at 541 although Northampton conceded the fewest at 322 just three fewer than Tigers’ 325.
Contrary to popular myth Tigers were one of the most prolific try scorers with 46, only Bath bettered them with 49 however Tigers racked up the largest number of Try Bonus points with 7 against Bath’s 5.
However the perception of Tigers having the meanest defence was borne out by their record of conceding just 18 tries, the nearest in the skinflint stakes being Saracens who permitted just 22.
Leicester Tigers
2009/10 – Premiership Champions (73 points)
As is the case with most clubs the Champions had a nett outflow of five players at the end of the season with current England captain Lewis Moody arguably being the highest profile departure.
Otherwise I don’t believe the squad has been significantly weakened with the arrival of Waldrom, Skivington and Hawkins in particular however I confess to not knowing much of Bucknall other than he made just two appearances for Leeds last term. Robinson and Agulla have improved options out wide but I remain concerned at the paper thin cover at hooker and half back with Youngs and Flood likely to be spending considerable periods of time with the EPS set up and their stand ins; Grindal and Staunton more containers than creators.
While I see Tigers going close I have the feeling that this year may not see another league championship title, largely due to the lack of cover in key positions and the lottery of injuries, particularly in the front row, combining with international demands.
Forecast 2010/11 – 2nd
Northampton Saints
2009/10 – 2nd (71 points)
The Franklins’ Gardens outfit has also seen a drastic reduction in playing staff, the most significant of
which for me is the departure of Lobbe and Kruger who were both major go to men last season and I see nobody of their quality arriving but with the talented Laws in the wings I expect to see the young man finally nail a second row spot on a regular basis and enhance his international career.
The back division has been boosted by the arrival of Matt Cornwall and Joe Ford and I see this as being a good season for the East Midlanders with their squad having a well balanced look and good cover in key positions.
Forecast 2010/11 – Champions
Saracens
2009/10 – 3rd (69 points)
After so much money being spent and so many coaches and players being bought and discarded the Watford club came close last year to winning some more silverware.
The key departure here is Glen Jackson who was such a major part of anything good that Saracens did and while I expect to see the talented Goode move to take over the #10 shirt he will be learning his craft there, also he’ll have to share with Hougaard who may just choose this season to show he’s the positive attacking influence that he’s largely failed to demonstrate since originally arriving in the UK at Tigers, if not then I see Saracens being back to the stodge.
Elsewhere perhaps there has been too great a loss of on field experience with, amongst others, Marshall departing to be replaced by Wigglesworth, and it will remain to be seen how Stevens plays after his exile.
Maybe Strettle will regain his form and benefit the potentially dynamic back division however with the possibility of the #10 connect being disjointed I sense a season of consolidation at best and most likely some slippage as the squad regains its balance.
Forecast 2010/11 – 5th
Bath Rugby
2009/10 – 4th (61 points)
Certainly the hoary cliché of it being a season of two halves applied nowhere more than at the Recreation Ground last term.
The arrival of Moody has grabbed the headlines however it remains to be seen how much time he spends with his team given the demands on his time as the World Cup approaches next year. I thought Julien Salvi to be one of the stand out back rows last season and of course he could be ever present, so I see this as a negative change in many ways.
Even more significant is the departure of Joe Maddock who has been a veritable scoring machine for the West Countrymen for so long, Tom Biggs, who is his natural replacement, is not within a country mile of Maddock in terms of being able to produce a try from nowhere. Biggs, to my mind, is in the Varndell bracket of winger, in that if he has the ball in an odds on scoring position he’ll most likely take it but to magically produce something from nothing ala Maddock, I don’t see it. Cover for James at fly half seems to be Sam Vesty with Little and Davis both departing so it looks thin here and the free flowing style that is Bath may suffer from the changes.
Forecast 2010/11 – 3rd
Wasps
2009/10 – 5th (57 points)
The trademark late season surge after a poor first half to the season came to naught last year and the Wycombe outfit will be hoping for a better start this time.
The return of Ricki Flutey is key here as in tandem with, for my money, the standout 13 of last season, Dom Waldouck, this could be THE centre partnership of next season however they first need the ball and I see nobody arriving to improve the Wasps’ scrum and with the departure of Skivington their already suspect lineout will also suffer.
Powell’s arrival from Blues is eye catching for sure but he’s a player who has become a predictable albeit a hard running ball carrier in the style of the departed Leo and the surely waning Worsley.
Out wide veteran Richard Haughton arrives to replace Paul Sackey for which see my comments on Maddock vs Biggs at Bath. With Varndell remaining the enigma he was at Tigers there seems a lack of creativity out wide to score from nothing with only Lemi bringing such a skill to the party and much will depend on the Flutey/Waldouk axis.
Forecast 2010/11 – 6th
London Irish
2009/10 – 6th (52 points)
After a bright start Irish drifted out of contention for honours again last season and really the closed season has seen little change in the squad make up, which as their set up worked pretty well for a long period may be no bad thing, what they need to do now is maintain the intensity of their game for 80 minutes and for every match throughout the season, which I am sure will be the focus of Toby Booth and his charges during the closed season.
If they are lucky with injuries, which they weren’t last year, I think a better outcome is possible.
Forecast 2010/11 – 4th
Gloucester
2009/10 – 7th (48 points)
The perennial under achievers from Kingsholm did it again last season but didn’t even flatter to deceive this time.
With the departure of Bortolami, Boer (again), Delve, Eustace, Satala and Sommerville, Walkinshaw has shed loads (see what I did there - shed loads)of experience with the arrival of Brett Deacon from Tigers bringing a good squad man to Gloucester and another ex Tiger, Jim Hamilton also arriving, although likely to absent with Scotland for long periods.
But maybe the biggest loss is McGeechan, who’s arrival at Kingsholm coincided with a distinct improvement in form last year and I am surprised that heaven and earth wasn’t moved to keep him in his consulting role at Gloucester but then maybe it was and he just wanted out to Bath.
I see nothing to suggest anything other than a lower table finish.
Forecast 2010/11 – 8th
Harlequins
2009/10 – 8th (46 points)
With the arrival of Conor OShea the self styled Diamond Geezers gained a sense of stability at least after a season when they went from looking quite useful one day to relegation material the next.
England Saxon Ollie Smith arrives from Montpellier after a low profile spell in France and slots into the Tiesi role but otherwise the closed season changes have been unremarkable and with the departure of Croall, Fuga, Masson, Mordt and Strettle in particular the tight five of the squad looks to have been weakened.
Much will depend on the ability of one of the top Premierships fly-halves, Nick Evans, to stay fit and link with Easter and Care to form what is a potentially great axis, if he does then I see mid table for the Londoners but I suspect the lack of quality cover at half back will come back to haunt them.
Forecast 2010/11 – 9th
Newcastle Falcons
2009/10 – 9th (37 points)
Unusually Falcons have a nett inflow of players but I would suggest it is quantity over quality and experience with the standout recruit the excellent Ally Hogg.
Last season the north-easterners finally produced a scrum that could compete but with the departure of Carl Hayman I wonder if his influence in the pack and at the club will be too great a blow.
They will again rely heavily on the boot of Jimmy Gopperth, the league’s top scorer ahead of Toby Flood last season, and I struggle to see anything other than another season of survival.
Forecast 2010/11 – 11th
Leeds
2009/10 – 10th (36 points)
Arguably the most outstanding team effort of the last season saw Neil Back and his colleagues overcome the inherent protectionism of PRL in maintaining the status quo within the Premiership.
A net outflow of 10 players here from Leeds however I’m sure Back and Key will have chosen wisely in their new signings and here is truly a club where the whole is greater than the individual parts and for this reason I don’t feel that this season will be quite the struggle of last year but with consolidation the name of the game.
Forecast 2010/11 – 10th
Sale Sharks
2009/10 – 11th (32 points)
The cheque book has been out up at Edgeley Park with a nett inflow of 5 players.
Unusually there is a clutch of declared trialists but of the arrivals I think the recruitment of American Mike Petri from NY Athletic Club is the most eye catching. The USA international was impressive in the Churchill Cup and Charlie Hodgeson should benefit from good service, all that remains to see is if Sheridan returns and anchors the scrum while for once maintaining his binding and not putting his hand on the pitch instead.
It’s not that there’s a lack of quality at Sale it’s just, to me, they didn’t look to be a team last year, if they can fix this issue, which I think they can then a better year.
Forecast 2010/11 – 7th
Exeter Chiefs
2009/10 – League One Champions
As has so often seen to be the case the difference in pace and class between the League and the Premiership is vast and as already mentioned the inability of promoted clubs to buy appropriate players is hamstrung by the lack of the same financial PRL arrangements as applies to the rest of the premiership.
Exeter were seen as surprise arrivals in the Premiership however I would not be surprised to see them relegated.
Forecast 2010/11 – 12th and relegated
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That said I'm not sure on Sarries - who I think will be in 1st or 2nd or Wasps and Sale who I see struggling much more than Quins and Glaws. Also not sure if Newcastle have enough to resist the likely cohesive, unified desparation of Ex.
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A net outflow is likely and, if some are deservedly promoted from the academy, is a healthy sign.
Quote:Exeter were seen as surprise arrivals in the Premiership however I would not be surprised to see them relegated.
Forecast 2010/11 – 12th and relegated
Prepare to be surprised again
Good luck from all of us though!
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I might even have a smile on my face if Glos went down.
Thanks for the analysis Chris (and for the credit too).
Having spent a summer reviewing many DVDs covering many seasons, it is the sheer bloddy mindedness that turned around many a game.
Thanks Chris. I have to disagree on the two major prizes as I can see no-one to touch Tigers over the domestic season and I think Gosforth have toyed with survival on a budget one tweak too far this time around. Exiter are wanted for regional balance and are serious investors - Gosforth may fit the first, but .......
As for Europe. Yeah, this is where the squad size sees us lost in any permutation of a semi-final, barring sheer grit and a fanciful amount of luck.
'Lions led by donkeys' .. Lest we forget