Make or Break?

Danger from Big Les
By Andy Brown
October 2 2009

Many people have decided that the game against Gloucester will be critical for our chances of survival in the Premierhsip this season. Win, and there's a modicum of pride restored and the sense of setting onto the right track. Lose, however, and an inevitable decline into the lowest reaches of despair drops the morale of team and supporters to a level that even Gordon Brown would feel pity for us.

I, however, don't think it's anything like so cut-and-dried.

Gloucester are most definitely out of sorts, and, on a long trip North will be justifiably slightly nervous at the thought that, if they put in a poor performance and lose, it will be they sinking towards the basement section of the Premiership, something which this time last season would have been unimaginable. Great players abound in the side there's no doubt, but if the mindset isn't right, there could be problems for them.

Leeds have also to banish the thoughts of the last horror show they put on at Headingley, when London Irish helped themselves to wayward passes a-plenty and scored off every one, and crashed through weak tackling and lacklustre decision making. Leeds can't possibly be as bad again, and their display against Northampton last week, while disappointing score-wise (which is all that matters at the end of the day), went some way to prove that notion.

So the two sides facing each other on Sunday are converging towards a common level which will make for a fascinating encounter. Whoever wins will be relieved more than triumphant.

But lets not fall into that trap of the make-or-break game. Losing on Sunday will no doubt heap pressure on Leeds, but the break imposed on the Premiership by the European season and Anglo-Welsh cup will serve to give coaches and medics a chance to take stock, ring the changes and experiment with combinations in a less intense environment. Time to regroup. On the other hand though, winning against Gloucester won't be the pivotal moment some claim it would be either. Because again, the European season would break up the newly found momentum for winning and may well cause some to lose concentration on the job in hand, so when the Premiership restarts we could be back in the problem zone.

Given those two options though, I would take the win on Sunday, and let the coaches worry about the whole momentum thing.

News reaches us through the official website that Henry Fa'afili is unlikely to be selected for this encounter which, looking at the size of the man in the video press conference, is a pity - he looks like he could do some serious damage if taking a fast pop-ball from deep, and hopefully we'll get to see that soon. A new signing that definitely IS playing is Seru Rabeni although he is selected at 12 which will raise a few Yorkshire eyebrows. No doubt the guy is a class act, but I would have thought he would be more suited to the 13 channel. With the number of injuries on the table at the moment, the pack more or less picks itself, with the only (seemingly constant) connumdrum being whether to pick Alfie as a starter or an impact sub. Kiwi and Backy have gone for the former, so Rhys Oakley warms the bench from the off. Tom Denton was apparently extremely impressive at 6 last week, and rightly retains his starting spot for this encounter.

Looking at the Gloucester squad it reads like a veritable who's who of international talent (I imagine with his royal connections Mike Tindall is actually in the real thing!). Tinds captains the side, and Lesley Vainikolo, with the weight of his court case now completely off his shoulders will relish the chance to return to the scene of his Premiership debut and will hope to make a similar impact. With Alasdair Strokosch and Andy Hazell in the team there will be some hard graft for the Leeds fetchers.Olivier Azam also appears, dispite the kicking incident which sidelined Steve Borthwick last week and for which he was cited by the RFU. Presumably Gloucester will be getting all the mileage they can out of him before any potential forced rest period. With Voyce, Sinbad and Vainikolo in the team there are some scary looking back line options, and with Nicky Robinson controlling the moves there will be danger from everywhere.

The Gloucester side looks menacing, and the Leeds side looks less so. I would really love them to win it, and I expect them to run the visitors close. I KNOW it will be great entertainment and I will be bellowing my lungs out for a Leeds win. How about you lot?

Teams

Leeds: Jon Goodridge, Richard Welding, Jonny Hepworth, Seru Rabeni, Lee Blackett, Ceiron Thomas, Andy Gomarsall,Gareth Hardy, Phil Nilsen, Juan Gomez, Erik Lund, Marco Wentzel (capt), Tom Denton, Hendrie Fourie, Alfie To'oala

Replacements: Vili Ma'asi, Alex Moreno, Tommy McGee, Calum Clark, Rhys Oakley, Scott Mathie, Henry Paul, Luther Burell

Gloucester: Tom Voyce, James Simpson-Daniel, Mike Tindall (capt), Eliota Fuimaono-Sapolu, Lesley Vainikolo, Nicky Robinson, Rory Lawson, Alasdair Dickinson, Olivier Azam, Paul Doran-Jones, Dave Attwood, Alex Brown, Alasdair Strokosch, Andrew Hazell, Adam Eustace

Replacements: Darren Dawiduik, Shaun Knight, Pierre Capdevielle, Peter Buxton, Akapusi Qera, Dave Lewis, Freddie Burns, Olly Morgan