New Zealand RWC Preview
By Tigersfan1
September 6 2011
To “The Big One” then – no, not my preview, but the question that is on everyone’s lips about what is surely without dispute the best team currently on the planet: Can they do it this time?????
The answer, at last, has to be yes. Nigh on unbeatable at home, darlings of the IRB, the best player(s) in the world and a coaching team that has tasted failure and will have learned how to succeed in the process…etc…etc
So, given their almost total domination of the world number 1 ranking since England relinquished it in 2004, is it not a foregone conclusion that the Kiwis only have to turn up every week for 7 games (remember that phrase), to retain the trophy they won in such glorious style four years ago? Aaah, therein lies the issue – we have been here many times before with New Zealand. If the “favourites” always prevailed in sport, the All Blacks would have won every world cup except 1991 (if I remember correctly they were in decline from the heights of 1987 by then), and 2003 when England rightly held the tag of favourites, and were good enough to deliver. But the well-documented catalogue of slip-ups (accompanied by outcries of whingeing excuses) have done for them time and again. And most times, I think it has come back to that phrase – “is it not a foregone conclusion that the Kiwis only have to turn up every week, for 7 games”. They look like they believe it, coming from an untouchable record in between world cups, but with a lack of regard (or, in their own over-used R-word, Respect) for their opponents’ qualities of attrition, and the thought that the opposition may be capable of capturing the adrenalin of the occasion to raise their game, or bringing a tactical change to the party to knock them off their stride under the most intense of pressure situations.
This time round? In rugby terms they are probably further out in front than ever; not without relative weakness (suspect line-out, back-up at 7 and 10, and lack of a world-class 9, for example) but with enough talent surely to triumph. Anybody who can leave the likes of Hosea Gear and Sivivatu at home, or contemplate not starting a 12 with the presence of Ma’a Nonu because they think Sonny Bill brings even more to the side, has riches in their back division to die for.
They have the world’s stand-out performers at 7 and 10 where both have been so for 6 or 7 years, and a 15 not far behind. A rugged, nasty old lock in Brad Thorn that previous NZ management would have put out to grass 8 years ago for a flashier, younger option, but who is in the exact mould needed for when the going gets tough. Beyond that, the All Black scrum on its day can be a destructive unit against all but the strongest of scrummaging sides and, again with the majority of first choice available, is rarely if ever bettered. Similarly, the front five is a very functional unit in the tight, not exceptional but very good (including that very very nice Kevvy), and with a dynamic and balanced back row which optimises every breakdown situation if the front 5 so much as gain parity. And from there, an attacking set of backs without peer, led by the wonderful Caaaader.
The defence is pretty hard to fault as well, especially given McCaw’s consistent use of an Invisibility Cloak (and force of personality) to enable him to slow down, or turn over, opposition ball and elsewhere, seemingly no weaknesses individually or in the system.
All in all I sound like I’m saying there is no point anyone else turning up after all, but of course there is! The superiority the AB’s have enjoyed is in no small part down to a relative lack of mis-fortune on the injury front and if that changes – if they lose 3 or 4 (especially in certain positions) say by the time the semi’s come along – it evens up the playing field considerably when you think of a bristling, hard-nosed and talented South Africa in a probable semi-final, or an inspired France or Australia in a likely final. And it has to be said, under pressure in a close game, even Dan Carter’s composure has been known to crack and in world cups, the outcome can depend on the smallest of margins.
However, I do think it is New Zealand’s to lose, like never before. Perhaps because of the home advantage, and also that I can’t believe, if they do stay at full strength, they will capitulate again if someone has the temerity to get close enough to slug it out with them – the pain of the 2007 failure will surely keep the mind focussed, and bring the degree of pragmatism all rugby world cup winners have had (in spades!).
On a personal note, how would I feel if they were to be crowned champions? You may have picked up some slightly barbed comments through the preview, I hate their holier-than-thou attitude when any of their players transgresses, especially when compared with the outcry if one of their “precious ones” gets a bit back; their attitude about the Haka and the colour strip they play in; the fans who take the “whingeing” and “arrogant” tags usually aimed at the English to new heights (or depths). But away from their “All Blacks” obsession, New Zealanders are the nicest, most gracious people you could meet, and who could begrudge them their day in the sun, and their team that for so long now has constantly played a fantastic, exciting brand of rugby, and done it better than anyone else? Not me!
Here are the ones chosen to deliver:
Squad:
John Afoa, Anthony Boric, Daniel Carter, Jimmy Cowan, Israel Dagg, Andy Ellis, Corey Flynn, Ben Franks, Owen Franks, Zac Guildford, Andrew Hore, Cory Jane, Richard Kahui, Jerome Kaino, Richie McCaw (capt), Keven Mealamu, Mils Muliaina, Ma'a Nonu, Kieran Read, Colin Slade, Conrad Smith, Adam Thomson, Brad Thorn, Isaia Toeava, Victor Vito, Piri Weepu, Sam Whitelock, Ali Williams, Sonny Bill Williams, Tony Woodcock.
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Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2011:09:17:10:19:27 by Stephen Bath.
But something strange very often happens in major team sporting events and the favourites often don't win (Spain in the last footie World Cup did but the favourites often don't).
I think the variables in the RWC (and the strength of other teams) mean that it's not "NZ's to lose" at all. IMHO - though the bookies may not agree, I don't know - surely every team in the competition (including NZ) must have more chance of not winning it, however good they are, than actually winning it - even if NZ have the best chance of doing so. NZ only have to slip up once out of three times from the quarter-finals on not to do so.
I wouldn't be suprised to see England, France, Australia or South Africa win it. And my jaw wouldn't hit the ground too hard if Ireland did so either. I don't think it's a question of them perhaps "capitulating" - more that it's possible another team just plays better than them on the day. And are they so far in front of the others? Well, they didn't win the Tri-Nations this year.
Since the beginning of 2009 they've won 26 out of 34 games (approximately 3 out of 4), losing only to South Africa (4 times), Australia (twice), France and the Barbarians (once each) and only twice, if I'm not mistaken, in NZ (against SA and France). So a very enviable record but they haven't proved to be unbeatable.
If they do win, though - as well they might - good luck to them. And if they don't - well, their Tri-Nations record (10 champions titles out of 16) and their record against 6 Nations teams surely proves they've usually been the best in the world in the last 16 years (never mind before).
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2011:09:07:09:51:46 by Parma Jack.
You won't be surprised to find that I agree - almost entirely. They are, whether we like it or no the best team in the world (by a distance imo); I think they are the most attractive team in the world too and I just couldn't begrudge them the win - especially given how important it is to them but I can't help feel my hackles rise when I thnk about the way they become, well, unhinged - as a nation - when it comes to the AB's and when I think about - as you say - their complete inability to accept that any of their sainted ones can ever transgress. I suppose there is a degree of schadenfreude but also I have to confess to a mite of envy. But I do take Parma Jack's point - the chances of them losing it are greater than those of them winnig it - which is a comfort to us all (though frankly should Ireland win it my jaw won't just hit the ground hard but I may suffer some sort of seizure as my brain attempts to encompass an event so improbable - what next - Scotalnd winning it?) and given the random nature of things - especially those involving an oval ball - I rather think that they won't manage it. Especially when one considers the pressure (somethnig they have not handled well before) that they will be under.
I rather think that the best thing that could happen to them is to stumble, struggling and bloodied from a tough group in which they find form and consistency difficult to find. That might ensure that there will be no complacency - and in which case - watch out world.
I still have Aus as my favourites though. It feels a little bit like 1999 to me.
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Quote:Rich W
(though frankly should Ireland win it my jaw won't just hit the ground hard but I may suffer some sort of seizure as my brain attempts to encompass an event so improbable - what next - Scotalnd winning it?) .
Ha-ha, Rich. Nice one! But I wouldn't write Ireland off completely. If they play (a couple of times) like they did against England in the 6 Nations last season, or like Leinster did against Saints in the HC Final you never know. Stranger things have happened. What about France beating Italy or Samoa beating Australia recently. I know they were just one-offs but....
And I know that it's a different sport but would it be stranger than Denmark winning the UEFA European Football Championship in 1992 or Greece winning it in 2004?
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Over here (in Italy), we're certainly hoping that Italy beat Ireland but that doesn't mean we think they're a better team. Italy can beat Scotland sometimes but haven't been able to beat England, South Africa or Australia whereas Scotland have in recent years. You know how these things work....So I would never tip Italy to get to the Final (with the best will in the world I'd have the men in white coats round) - or even the SF really, but I think Ireland are outsiders to win it.
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2011:09:07:11:01:47 by Parma Jack.
Agreed Parma Jack - and I didn't mean to suggest that Italy might win the whole thing - more unlikely than Ireland - just. I meant that I can see them beating Ireland in the group - and therfore qualifying for the 1/4's.
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Quote:Tigersfan1
Just for the record, I wrote this preview. Would hate TigerR to get the kiwi hate mail!
Ooops, sorry, now corrected !!
Recently, of course, things have got pretty good in Ireland, with a grand slam, 3 Heineken Cup winners in 4 years, 3 victories in their last 4 test matches against South Africa and 1 victory and a draw in the last 4 against Australia.
In any case, in any sport a team that were European Champions three years ago, currently ranked 8th out of 93 teams, with recent victories over two of the world's best three, would have to be considered a significant power at the very least.
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2011:09:08:08:16:56 by Parma Jack.
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The next tier are the one tournement wonders: Wales, Scotland and Argentina; who have all achieved a semi final appearence.
Then Ireland are on a par with Samoa, Fiji and Canada who have appeared in world cup quarter finals but not everytime and never a semi final.
I wouldn't call all the teams outwith the top 10 'minnows'. Fiji have twice reached the RWC quarter-finals and Italy are a 6 Nations team that recently beat France and got a crowd of 80,000 at home to New Zealand. All the teams from 11 to 20 have qualified for the RWC and most usually do. I reckon the 'minnows' start a bit further down the rankings.
NZ, Az, ZA, Eng, Fr, Wales, Ire, Scot, Fifi, Samoa, Tonga, Italy, Arg.
But that doesn't make all of the major powers. I'd suggest that there are 5 'major' powers and around 8 - not sure on Tonga and Samoa so it might be 6 - mid-ranked teams who can't in all honesty be described as major powers.
Wales are probably the only exception as they were once a major power.
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The world ranking - 11th Italy, 12th Tonga, 13th Japan, 14th Canada, 15th Fiji (a mere 3 rating points separating all 5 teams). Canada have beaten Italy 2 times out of 6. If Fiji and Italy can be described as mid-ranked, I think Canada and Japan can be too,
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New Zealanders are on the whole a lot less precious than the nutters who make so much noise and piss off everyone else. They also annoy most NZers.
There have been exceptions when most of the country got worked up. Cardiff 2007 for example. And a lot of us get irritated with endless moaning about illegal play and ABs getting away with so much. And this rather too often elicits sour and nasty replies.
And honestly, I didn't hear anything other than cynical amusement over the black uniform affair. Of course certain politicians thought they might derive points from a whinge but when all they got was yawns they soon dried up quickly.
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