Saracens v Toulon, Match Preview

Perhaps unfair to say it, but even at the heights of their European dominance, I always had a sense that a squad as talented as Toulon's was playing well within itself, certainly in terms of style if not results. 

If their semi-final defeat against Racing 92 had seemed to mark a changing of the guard in French domestic terms, even if now that prediction has been wildly inaccurate, Saracens' spellbinding round 1 success at Toulon has been a more accurate reflection of the shift in power in club if not country terms within the European tournament.

For all that, the best, or at least the most consistent, sides find a way to win, as Toulon did against Sale, or, as in Saracens' case over the past two weekends, force a last-gasp draw. The extra point at Scarlets still means that a home Quarter Final still remains well within Sarries' grasp with qualification and top spot of Pool 2 already sealed unless the visitors record a large win. in contrast, Toulon probably need to win for qualification, though might squeak through if the hosts draw their third match in a row (any bookies on the site got odds for this?), but have lost their last five away matches in a row. Toulon may arguably be past their best, and frustratingly one-dimensional at times, but Chris Ashton's future employers have not imploded in the same way as Racing have done of late. However, for a club of their ambition, fifth in the present Top 14 standings is relatively modest, and they have slipped slightly since the first pool game, as home wins have dovetailed with away defeats. Between Rounds 2 and 3 of Europe, they earnt home successes against Grenoble (42-12), Stade Francais (31-12) and Bordeaux-Begles (37-10) but lost out at Lyon (27-13) and Castres (34-17). The year ended with a 33-29 setback at Montpellier and 2017 began with a 17-11 home success over Racing and a 30-6 reverse at ASM Clermont Auvergne. 

In terms of Europe, following Saracens' win in the South of France, a first ever home defeat in Europe for the hosts, Toulon claimed their first European win of the campaign in unimpressive style with a 15-5 win at Sale Sharks, with the hosts missing several chances to claim victory, as back row Charles Ollivon got the game's solitary try. Forward dominance and a powerful performance by centre Mathieu Bastareaud proved the key ingredient as a 31-20 bonus point win was claimed against Scarlets, with the tries coming from back row Mamuka Gorgodze, Leigh Halfpenny, lock Romain Taofifenua and hooker Guilhem Guirado. A key ingredient in any successful side is an ability to edge the tight games, and Saracens have made an art form of this at times, but Toulon found themselves beaten by a point, 22-21 in the return game in Carmarthenshire, failing to score a try but at least narrowing a deficit which was 16-3 at one stage, and Halfpenny missing a last gasp kick to win it. There was much to be said for the spirit and application in last week's 27-12 home win over Sale, as their late show yielded what may be a vital fifth point. Centre Ma'a Nonu provided the opening try but the home side were losing 7-5 at the break. Bryan Habana nudged them ahead, and when the Sharks were down to 14 men with four minutes left, there were well-worked tries for Jonathan Pelissie and an attack from deep which culminated in the bonus point score for Josua Tuisova.

If Mike Ford's accession to the head coach role was a surprise, then Richard Cockerill's arrival in recent weeks was even more so and he will turn his skills to improving an imposing pack still further. However, it's a double edged sword in some ways, Saracens and to a lesser extent Scarlets, exploited that a big pack may win penalties from the scrum, but it can also struggle to keep up with incisive attacking play.  With Sarries suffering a couple of absences in the forwards compared to last October, it's crucial to keep the ball in the right areas against a side happy to play pragmatically with so much at stake. For the hosts, though, a chance to record a significant double, and the first Toulon would have conceded, thus underlining the "changing of the guard" is complete. A possible line up has Alex Goode returning at full back, with Chris Ashton and Nathan Earle on the wings, outside a centre partnership of Marcelo Bosch and Nick Tompkins, with a remaining half back combination of Owen Farrell and Richard Wigglesworth. Pack-wise, Richard Barrington, Jamie George and Juan Figallo could form the front row, with Maro Itoje and Will Skelton in the second row and an unchanged back row of Michael Rhodes, Schalk Burger and Jackson Wray. Toulon look likely to field a similar line up to last week with Halfpenny at full back, James O'Connor and Habana on the wings, with Bastereaud at centre, possibly alongside the returning Matt Giteau, and the half back duo of fly half Pierre Bernard and scrum half Sebastien Tillous-Borde. Laurent Delboulbes, Guirado and Marcel van der Merwe are a possible front row, with Jocelino Suta and Samu Manoa in the second row and a back row comprised of Liam Gill, Juan Fernandez Lobbe and Duane Vermeulen.