2006/07 Season Preview

By Mark H
August 30 2006

The start of the season brings two previews to the site. The second, a joint match preview written by Leipy and myself for Sunday's game, will be here on Friday. Until then, here's my tradional head on the block preview of the 2006/07 Guinness Premiership.

As an avid follower of French rugby, the main thing that frustrates me is the predictability of it all – not the style of play, that’s possibly the best thing about it.  No, the gnawing thing that I’m fed up with is the same clubs contesting the top end of the Top 14 and effectively having a 26 game warm up for the two league matches that matter every year – the semi final and final.  Last season as a case in point; towards the end of the season, it was just a question of who would fall through the trapdoor, and it ended on the last day with Pau blowing their elite place with some kamikaze decision making in the last few moments against Castres.

 

For France 2005/06 (and probably this season too), read the Guinness Premiership 2006/07.  It looks to be the most predictable for years; Sale and Leicester will fill the top two positions (and more than likely contest the final); Wasps, Gloucester and London Irish will battle to avoid fifth spot; Northampton and Saracens will battle for sixth; and the other five clubs will be looking over their shoulders, some more nervously than others, as to who fills top spot in National One – there are some contenders there who would prefer not to finish top.

 

The Premiership’s tagline this season is “A year of anticipation for club and country”, and I have this nasty feeling that it may well be just that.  The World Cup is 53 weeks away.  The RFU rebuilding plan may well overshadow what is to come domestically over the next nine months, as we wait to see if Rob Andrew can start the turnaround at the highest level – however he may go about it.

 

Once again the excitement (or nervous tension) looks to be at the bottom of the table rather than the top, with five clubs – Bath, Harlequins, Worcester, Bristol and Falcons – all more likely to be at that wrong end.  I actually thought Bath would finish top last year, but that illusion was shattered as early as week two when a Northampton side that had been badly beaten up by Leicester seven days earlier went to the Rec and won.  Now on their third DoR in a year (fourth if you count Mike Foley’s temporary charge), Bath will suffer badly from the loss of Brian Ashton to England, apparently the thousandth member of the club’s staff to be acquired by the RFU.  Rumour has it that they’re going to start employing eggs so that they can be poached more easily.  Under Ashton, they out-thought Leicester to get to the Heineken Cup semis, and could get at least as far in the Challenge Cup this time around if they can get out of the group of cliché.  Joining themselves, Connacht and Montpellier in that pool are Harlequins, back after a sole defeat at Exeter last season.

 

It's almost a series of cup finals this season for Quins; aside from beating the other members of this quintet, Andrew Mehrtens will want to outshine Carlos Spencer in the Saints games, Paul Volley will be relishing the battles against Dallaglio and Worsley, and as much as he'll deny it, Dean Richards will badly want to beat the Tigers, the club that turned their backs on him two and a half years ago.  Both they and Bath will stay up; Bath as they have too much quality, Quins simply because they'll have learnt the lessons of two seasons ago, but Quins will want to get the monkey of not winning on non-international weekends off their backs as soon as possible.

 

I worry for Worcester; something just doesn't seem right, and they badly need their big players to stay fit and out of international clutches. It won't happen of course - Pat Sanderson is the best openside England currently have and the club's heart, whilst Chris Horsman will get fit and end up in the Welsh front row, where he'll probably get broken again.  Marcel Garvey is an interesting addition, if he shows the better side of consistency more often, but I just doubt that they can score enough tries - although any penalty in the opponents half will be fodder for Shane Drahm's boot.

 

Bristol will be happy with eleventh, just as they would have been had it been offered this time last year; indeed, a lot will be taken from their lineups for the EDF Energy Cup games at the beginning of October as to their intentions for the season.  Just as last season, David Lemi will be key to their attacking ambitions, whilst the pensioners in their front row will cast aside their zimmer frames, get the creak on in the scrums, and embarrass more than a few younger packs.  The squad would hope to be in good shape for when Waikato fly half David Hill arrives in November; if a gap has opened between them and the others near the bottom, then he could be asked to produce too much.  Once again, they would hope not to lose Shaun Perry too much to international rugby, but he's another one for whom missing the summer tour may prove very beneficial come November.

 

You'll notice that I haven't mentioned Falcons yet.  Keep reading...

 

Sarries' season will depend on how quickly Alan Gaffney and Adrian Kennedy become settled, and what style of game they decide to play.  Potentially they're a top four side; realistically they're battling for the top half.  The pack, their acknowledged strength, has been bolstered, and Glen Jackson was being given the right platform to pull the strings on more than a few occasions last season.  And then there's that Farrell bloke.  He IS a superb rugby league player; he can be a very good union player, if he can get himself fully fit.  Like Chev Walker at Bath, I hope he has the chance to show what he can do - it may be very peculiar on 17th September to have a Falcons match where the spotlight is on someone other than Wilkinson J.

 

Northampton will once again prove to be the great enigma, so much so that there are rumours of a move to Bletchley Park and getting Kate Winslet in to play in the back row.  They produced the best team performance of last season to destroy Saracens, and yet a week later were utterly dreadful at the Madjet.  On the first day of last season, they went to Leicester, got nilled and should have lost by fifty points, and yet are in the Heineken Cup.  With the team now bedded in, I don't expect any problems at the bottom end of the table, but I'm still not sure that it's ready to challenge at the top end.  The pack needs a massive season, and the promise shown by Pat Barnard last season when appearing to be not fully match fit has been joined by all 22 stone of Bedford prop Soane Tonga'uiha.  In the backs, if King Carlos gets enough ball, then tries will be great in number and excellence; on the evidence of the pre-season games, he looks a yard quicker - a potentially dangerous thought for the rest of the league.

 

Above them come the five clubs who I expect to be grappling for the playoffs.  Irish will look to build on the great promise that took them to third place last time round, and much will depend on the Flutey-Catt combination clicking into gear and releasing their fast men.  They'll get plenty of ball from the pack, where Bob Casey remains the most undercapped second row in the Premiership, and David Paice looks to secure the hooking spot with both club and country.  Wasps lost their title, their scrum half and their championship winning centres at the end of last season; Lawrence Dallaglio is getting fit again and scheduled to return in October, and they've picked up a useful looking fly-half called Walder (who I bet will play at full back on Saturday).  It's hard not to think that although they've done it all before, and know how to structure their season, this is an ageing team - mind you, that comment was made about Leicester last season and they came second!

 

A team definitely not ageing is Gloucester, and Dean Ryan’s biggest task this season will be keeping a lid on the external expectations for his squad.  They’ve recruited Italian captain Marco Bortolami and his countryman Carlos Nieto to bolster a pack without the departed Phil Vickery, but it’s in the backs where the most focus will be.  With Peter Richards and Anthony Allen competing for the nine shirt, Ryan Lamb looking to edge Ludovic Mercier out of the ten shirt, and two of the better young full backs in Jon Goodridge and Olly Morgan, there’s options, good options – and that’s without mentioning Iain Balshaw.  They will miss the injured Simpson-Daniel, but they now look to have the firepower that’s been missing since they topped the league in 2003.

 

Having persuaded Pat Howard to stay, Leicester now need to win a first trophy since 2002 to justify his faith in the club.  It’s possible, although strangely enough the Premiership looks to be their best bet.  A Heineken Cup draw that gave them Munster was not great, and even in the domestic competition they have two away games to tackle if they wish to progress.  Austin Healey has gone part-time, so there’ll be a quieter atmosphere at Welford Road, but if Harry Ellis is to fulfil my prediction of four years ago that he’d be the 2007 World Cup scrum half, he has to curb some of the tetchier aspects of his game and concentrate on being the good player that he is.  Tigers players spent a total of 29 weeks suspended last season (is that all, I hear you say…), so perhaps they all need to tone down slightly.  Doing that though would remove their edge, and all champion teams have one – it could be another watchable season at Welford Road.

 

Which brings us to the champions; Sale, the best team in the country last season (can I ungrit my teeth now please?), will want what will probably be Philippe Saint-Andre’s last full season at the club (he must be hot favourite to succeed Bernard Laporte) to at least double their domestic honours with another championship, simply because they still have the best team.  Chris Bell has bolstered their backs, and I really can’t see Charlie Hodgson returning to the player that was still coming to terms with his ability of two to three years ago – he’s now the complete fly-half, has led his team to a title, and the national position is his own.  Amazing how confidence, faith of others, experience and success can complete a player.

 

(There.  Can we now keep Jonny throughout all of the internationals please?)

 

One team left and we know them very well.  John Fletcher leads the club off the pitch, whilst Matthew Burke takes over the role on it.  Both need to have massive seasons; Fletcher proving that he’s the right man for the job, Burke simply because he’s our best player and we need the top men (Burke, Noon, Dowson, Wilkinson, Ward) to have excellent seasons AND stay fit.  There can be no repeat of the early home form of last season, as there’s not enough time to fall behind.  All four of the September games are winnable.  Over the last eight seasons, Falcons have only averaged nine and a half wins per season – that’s a record that needs to be bettered soon, simply for our own sanity!

 

The fixture list is kind; those four games at the start are assisted by the last three games being at home, but please God don’t let anything other than European qualification rest on those games.  There has been much discussion over the past few seasons about the frustrations of mid-table mediocrity; if someone offered me a mid table position at this moment I’d take it.

 

The new men

 

Having watched John Rudd for the past two seasons, I hope he gets off to a good start, as if ever a man needed one it’s him – if his confidence is running high, he can produce runs like his start at Northampton with five tries in his first three games, but the mess that was the Solomons era changed the club and he didn’t necessarily back himself as much as he should have done.  I’m looking forward to watching Jason Oakes (if Smithy ever sorts out the vowel problem), as Otley think highly of him and that he was playing a level below his ability.  Jon Golding won’t let anyone down, and will pressurise Ward, Wilson and Morris severely, whilst Brent Wilson was good enough for Leicester, so why not us?

 

The Jonny question is, as seems to have been for the past few years, how many games will he get?  15 to 20 and there will be no problems with this season for Falcons, less and you’re asking an awful lot from Toby Flood, however good he is.  Mathew Tait and Jamie Noon may well end up battling for one England spot; as long as the competition is good for Falcons, compete away!

 

To me though, our captain is the key.  One of the best talkers in the game, he’ll be the man to provide the gee up when things aren’t going well; to push for the bonus point in both winning and losing situations when the time is right; and to inspire us all – supporters, players, coaches – to the best possible season.

 

Truly, in God we trust.

 

 

Mark’s finishing order:-

 

Sale

Leicester

Gloucester

Wasps

London Irish

Northampton

Saracens

Harlequins

Bath

Falcons

Worcester

Bath

 

But you can throw a blanket over the bottom three…