Spread Betting 2


By kwin
November 6 2003

It's been a while since I covered the spread betting market - in fact this is the first update since the season opened. In the interim there's be a fair amount of movement

These articles try to provide some analysis of betting strategies on this market as well as some hot tips. (Important: you should pay no attention at all to the tips)

Here's the latest prices, from Sporting Index showing the price today, and how it was when I wrote the last article - on 18 Sept.
 

 		 What do the prices mean? Well, the index is based on the league position, at the end of the season. The team finishing first will be 'worth' 100 points, 2nd: 80 points 3rd: 60 points 4th: 40 points 5th: 30 points 6th: 20 points 7th: 10 points 8th: 5 points 9th-12th: 0 points. 
During the season you can sell or buy any team at the prices shown. e.g. buy Leeds at 9.  The prices go up and down  At the end of the season  if Leeds  then finished 3rd they would be worth 60 you make a 51 point profit... as say  £2 a point...or £20 a point...or £200 a point..... You don't have to wait to the end you can buy/sell at any time.  
 

Movers and Shakers

Two big climbers in the last six weeks: Bath and Wasps. 

  • Bath is easy to explain, unfancied at the beginning of the season they done amazingly well so far. They've yet to be wholly convincing to the gamblers, though and if you believe Bath can stay the course there's still some upside there. 
  • For Wasps, my explanation is simple - they were too cheap in Sept

One big faller in the same period: Leicester. They had an OK start to the season, but have looked worse and worse.

Otherwise you can see most teams remain fairly static - but it's worth noting that Quins have had a very volatile ride - from 7-10 they rose as high as 18-21 before falling back to the same price.  (I bought at 7 when the season started and spurned the chance of a 11 point profit, and still hold the position)

How did I do then?

Six weeks ago I made three tips

  1. Buy Wasps @ 49
    Current price 61-65. 
    Net Profit (Loss)  12 points
     
  2. Sell Leicester @ 64
    Current Price 19-22
    Net Profit (Loss) 42 points
     
  3. Buy Saracens @ 12
    Current Price: 1-2
    Net Profit (Loss)  (11 points)

Total Profit/Loss - if you close the positions now - a whacking 43 points!!  This means that if you'd followed my tips, staking say £5 a point, you'd have made £215.  Not bad :-)

This Week's Tips

Here's my thoughts (not including Quins, who are always a 'buy' for me!)

Tell the truth I don't see any obvious bets this time...

  • I thought Sale  were a good team. They are priced to finish 4th - perhaps they could be top three material?
  • Wasps, Northampton, Gloucester all priced the same, with not much to choose between them.  Fair enough.  Clearly if you have a strong view on any one of those three teams, you should buy - for a potential 40 point profit if the finish first, only losing out if they slip to 4th or worse. Tell the truth, I still quite fancy Wasps...

So, no actual tips this time other than a hint: there's a definite opportunity to pick ONE of Glos, Wasps and Saints, and BUY - go do it.

 

 
Next article...about two week's time. Good Luck!