GP Betting Preview - Week Seven

By Wellsaint
November 11 2005

Wellsaint takes his weekly look at the betting prospects ahead of this Weekend's Guinness Premiership game.

 

GP Betting Preview - Week Seven


Friday night's games

Newcastle v London Irish (live on Sky)

Home advantage should be enough to see Newcastle home against an Irish side who had an impressive home win against Bath last week.  Irish may well get a losing bonus point here - I take Newcastle to win by seven.  The betting line has Newcastle as five or six point favourites (from memory; my 'net access is patchy at the mo.) - a small punt on Newcastle -5 would be the call, but I think there's very little value to be had.


Sale v Worcester

Sale are (again from memory) eight point favourites to win this at home and, whilst they should win, with many players on international duty and others doing a more than passable imitation of a boxing match last week, it depends how well their stand-ins perform.  My prediction is Sale by five - so the call would be Worcester with the points (worked well enough last week!) - but again, there's not a lot of value to be had.



Saturday breakfast time game

Saints v Wasps

A lot's been written about this one already - Wasps arrive at FG without Van Gisburgen, Josh Lewsey and Multimediamatthewdawson (a pity about the last one; I always like watching one of the characters of the game live.)  Saints for their part are without Thommo, Big Ben and Stormin Norman Lamont. Prediction?  The Wasps side still looks very strong on paper (any loose passes will be gratefully received by Voyce or Sackey, that much I'm sure of) but I can just see Saints edgeing this game, although I would much prefer a lower scoring encounter than those of late. As Martin Corry said this week re England, we'd take 6-3.  And whilst I think there will be more points than that, I predict a Saints victory by merely two.  Betting wise, the only company offering odds on the game goes 4/7 Wasps and 11/8 Saints, which translates into a four point start for Saints on the handicap.  A very tempting bet.  Let's just hope I'm out of bed in time...


Saturday's other game, not at breakfast time, but at a proper time...

Leicester v Gloucester

The only bookmaker offering odds on this game has Leicester as ten point favourites and this may be too many for Leicester to cover.  With international call-ups to take note of it's not the easiest of games to assess but the sporting bet is Gloucester with the ten point start. 


Looking at the Saturday match-ups in particular, to take nothing away from the other games, one thought comes to mind - what a pity these fixtures occur on international weekends.  Is there really no other way around this problem?


Sunday's games

Bath v Saracens

The bookies can't split them, and, to be fair, I can't by very far!  Bath's season is very in-and-out and they lost heavily last week.  Saracens... (no, perhaps I shouldn't say any more, don't want to upset the delicate little flowers, do I?)  Bath by three.


Bristol v Leeds

Possibly the more interesting game for the neutral as this concerns the two favourites for the drop to National League One (the bookmaker's favourites, I add, not my personal ones, which are... oh, no... best not go there, eh?)  Leeds doubled their points tally for the season to two running Sale close last week, but I think that this is a game that Bristol will have targeted as a "must win" in order for them to stay out of the bottom reaches of the table.  I take Bristol to win by ten (the bookmakers have Bristol as five point favourites; they can beat this and deny Leeds any points.)

Your Best Bets...

Betting wise, therefore, I'd concentrate more on the games on Saturday and Sunday, taking Saints with a four point start, backing Bristol to give up five points, and Bath to beat Saracens (scratch betting.)  A potentially profitable treble there.