Current Page: 17 of 26
Re: OT When/How does this virus thing end?
Posted by: daktari (IP Logged)
Date: 12 May, 2020 20:13

Quote:
IDLETIMES
We started off with herd immunity until the Govt. Lost it's nerve when Boris took ill.

And they have effectively reintroduced that policy with Sundays confused announcement .

Re: OT When/How does this virus thing end?
Posted by: Stopsy (IP Logged)
Date: 12 May, 2020 20:19

Regarding our beloved leader’s pronouncements since Sunday, I’ve seen less waffle at a USA belly buster all you can eat breakfast. Today he tried the trump tactic of randomly telling a lie “ Corona virus is in our water supply “. Has since been retracted.

Re: OT When/How does this virus thing end?
Posted by: Paul Woodgate (IP Logged)
Date: 13 May, 2020 14:24

Quote:
jojo
The SARS scare in around 2003 and MERS 2010 when there was a coronavirus infection led to attempts to develop a vaccine against these viruses. 16 years on and an effective vaccine has still to be found. What makes anyone think that a vaccine will be found for Cov 2.

Apparently they did develop a SARS vaccine, however by the time it was ready the scare was over and so no company wanted to produce it as there was no longer any demand!

Re: OT When/How does this virus thing end?
Posted by: harlequinade (IP Logged)
Date: 21 May, 2020 17:56

More fascinating data on the "Swedish" experiment.

Grauniad

It will be very interesting to see the end of match score! Probably around the end of 2021?

Quote:
Just 7.3% of Stockholm’s inhabitants had developed Covid-19 antibodies by the end of April, according to a study, raising concerns that the country’s light-touch approach to the coronavirus may not be building up broad immunity.

Quote:
Sweden’s state epidemiologist, Anders Tegnell, said the Stockholm antibodies figure was “a bit lower than we’d thought”, but added that it reflected the situation some weeks ago and he believed that by now “a little more than 20%” of the capital’s population had probably contracted the virus.

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However, the public health agency had previously said it expected about 25% to have been infected by 1 May and Tom Britton, a maths professor who helped develop its forecasting model, said the figure from the study was surprising.

“It means either the calculations made by the agency and myself are quite wrong, which is possible, but if that’s the case it’s surprising they are so wrong,” he told the newspaper Dagens Nyheter. “Or more people have been infected than developed antibodies.”


If the latter then "Houston we have a problem!!"



Life is short,
and art long,
opportunity fleeting,
experimentations perilous,
and judgment difficult.

Re: OT When/How does this virus thing end?
Posted by: IDLETIMES (IP Logged)
Date: 21 May, 2020 20:19

If a vaccine will not be available for months or even years, it comes down to how much risk we are prepared to accept, this is where Govt. Leadership should come in but, as we know Govts. panic as numbers go up and down

Re: OT When/How does this virus thing end?
Posted by: harlequinade (IP Logged)
Date: 21 May, 2020 23:51

Quote:
IDLETIMES
If a vaccine will not be available for months or even years, it comes down to how much risk we are prepared to accept, this is where Govt. Leadership should come in but, as we know Govts. panic as numbers go up and down

Exactly, and this set of Ministers seem incapable of even coherently describing the situation let alone formulating a route. Hopefully they will get a steer from some of the more competent countries.
I guess we will all have to make our best judgement on that.
The latest set of data suggesting London is at around 17% sero positive is a bit more hopeful.
The eventual premature death toll for the country is going to be pretty horrific though.



Life is short,
and art long,
opportunity fleeting,
experimentations perilous,
and judgment difficult.

Re: OT When/How does this virus thing end?
Posted by: harlequinade (IP Logged)
Date: 22 May, 2020 09:25

Good article from the Economist here...
economist on covid

Quote:
The emergency phase of the pandemic is drawing to a close. Too many governments failed to spot what was coming, but then did what they could. In the much longer second phase they will have no such excuse. They must identify groups at risk; devise and enact policies for them; explain these so that vulnerable people change their behaviour without becoming scapegoats; provide vital infrastructure; and be ready to adapt as new data come in. This will sort countries where the government works from those where it does not. The stakes could not be higher.



Life is short,
and art long,
opportunity fleeting,
experimentations perilous,
and judgment difficult.

Re: OT When/How does this virus thing end?
Posted by: harlequinade (IP Logged)
Date: 22 May, 2020 09:56

And here is another clue as to why our death rate in care homes was so high....
Birmingham mail

Quote:
For the first time, we can reveal the high levels of movement of untested and Covid-positive people between hospitals and care homes in Birmingham during those challenging first weeks.
We can now reveal:

* 226 untested patients from University Hospitals Birmingham (UHcool smiley - including the Queen Elizabeth, Heartlands, Good Hope and Solihull hospitals - were discharged to care homes in March and early April

* 133 Covid-positive patients were discharged from UHB into care homes

* 22 untested patients from Sandwell and West Birmingham NHS Trust - including City and Sandwell hospitals - were also transferred into care homes.

It paints a disturbing picture of vulnerable patients with Covid-19, or who had not been tested, being routinely transferred into care homes among ill fellow residents.

This was done in line with government guidance to hospitals at the time, which was only amended on April 15 to ensure all discharged residents were tested.




Life is short,
and art long,
opportunity fleeting,
experimentations perilous,
and judgment difficult.

Re: OT When/How does this virus thing end?
Posted by: Rich W (IP Logged)
Date: 22 May, 2020 10:08

Speechless.



...

Re: OT When/How does this virus thing end?
Posted by: odd-shaped vagaries (IP Logged)
Date: 22 May, 2020 10:15

Quote:
harlequinade
And here is another clue as to why our death rate in care homes was so high....
Birmingham mail

Quote:
For the first time, we can reveal the high levels of movement of untested and Covid-positive people between hospitals and care homes in Birmingham during those challenging first weeks.
We can now reveal:

* 226 untested patients from University Hospitals Birmingham (UHcool smiley - including the Queen Elizabeth, Heartlands, Good Hope and Solihull hospitals - were discharged to care homes in March and early April

* 133 Covid-positive patients were discharged from UHB into care homes

* 22 untested patients from Sandwell and West Birmingham NHS Trust - including City and Sandwell hospitals - were also transferred into care homes.

It paints a disturbing picture of vulnerable patients with Covid-19, or who had not been tested, being routinely transferred into care homes among ill fellow residents.

This was done in line with government guidance to hospitals at the time, which was only amended on April 15 to ensure all discharged residents were tested.


But when accused our glorious leader vaguely gives 'reasons' or 'denials', I thought I heard on PMQs



The referee is the final arbitrary .. dementiaaahll!

Re: OT When/How does this virus thing end?
Posted by: Yorkie (IP Logged)
Date: 22 May, 2020 10:15

From what I hear, tested or untested was pretty much the same thing back then as no reliable test existed. But, as Rich says, speechless.



http://www.jakehowlett.com/tuckshop/wrappers/chocolate/plain/yorkie-nutter.jpg

Re: OT When/How does this virus thing end?
Posted by: Stopsy (IP Logged)
Date: 22 May, 2020 12:45

How can you all be so negative, what we need is more of our beloved leader's obfuscation, that will sort it.

Re: OT When/How does this virus thing end?
Posted by: harlequinade (IP Logged)
Date: 22 May, 2020 14:07

Quote:
harlequinade
And here is another clue as to why our death rate in care homes was so high....
Birmingham mail

Quote:
For the first time, we can reveal the high levels of movement of untested and Covid-positive people between hospitals and care homes in Birmingham during those challenging first weeks.
We can now reveal:

* 226 untested patients from University Hospitals Birmingham (UHcool smiley - including the Queen Elizabeth, Heartlands, Good Hope and Solihull hospitals - were discharged to care homes in March and early April

* 133 Covid-positive patients were discharged from UHB into care homes

* 22 untested patients from Sandwell and West Birmingham NHS Trust - including City and Sandwell hospitals - were also transferred into care homes.

It paints a disturbing picture of vulnerable patients with Covid-19, or who had not been tested, being routinely transferred into care homes among ill fellow residents.

This was done in line with government guidance to hospitals at the time, which was only amended on April 15 to ensure all discharged residents were tested.


And if you add in the reported widespread use of "agency" care staff who visited multiple sites without much decent PPE then it becomes even more explicit why!



Life is short,
and art long,
opportunity fleeting,
experimentations perilous,
and judgment difficult.

Re: OT When/How does this virus thing end?
Posted by: harlequinade (IP Logged)
Date: 22 May, 2020 14:40

March Lancet article!
Lancet

Quote:
The situation is so dire that staff are frequently breaking down in tears. As one physician wrote, “The utter failure of sound clinical leadership will lead to an absolute explosion of nosocomial COVID-19 infection.” Front-line staff are already contracting and dying from the disease.

Horribly prescient I am afraid!



Life is short,
and art long,
opportunity fleeting,
experimentations perilous,
and judgment difficult.

Re: OT When/How does this virus thing end?
Posted by: IDLETIMES (IP Logged)
Date: 22 May, 2020 17:29

And the plan to quarantine everyone coming into the country seems to be unraveling as more exemptions are announced on a daily basis

Re: OT When/How does this virus thing end?
Posted by: harlequinade (IP Logged)
Date: 03 June, 2020 12:22

Grauniad
Quote:
Sweden’s chief epidemiologist and the architect of its light-touch approach to the coronavirus has acknowledged that the country has had too many deaths from Covid-19 and should have done more to curb the spread of the virus.
Anders Tegnell, who has previously criticised other countries’ strict lockdowns as not sustainable in the long run, told Swedish Radio on Wednesday that there was “quite obviously a potential for improvement in what we have done” in Sweden.

Asked whether too many people in Sweden had died, he replied: “Yes, absolutely,” adding that the country would have to consider in the future whether there had been a way of preventing such a high toll.


That is what responsible Public Health Officials do.

And of course the end result will not be known for a good while yet.

Quote:
Sweden’s death rate per capita was the highest in the world over the seven days to 2 June, figures suggest. This week the government bowed to mounting opposition pressure and promised to set up a commission to look into its Covid-19 strategy.
“If we were to encounter the same disease again knowing exactly what we know about it today, I think we would settle on doing something in between what Sweden did and what the rest of the world has done,” Tegnell said. It would be “good to know exactly what to shut down to curb the spread of infection better”, he added.

According to the scientific online publication Ourworldindata.com, the number of Covid-19 deaths per capita in Sweden was the highest in the world in a rolling seven-day average to 2 June. The country’s rate of 5.29 deaths per million inhabitants a day was well above the UK’s 4.48.

Not really surprising given the different approaches and not necessarily a negative thing either perversely

Quote:
Sweden’s 4,468 fatalities from Covid-19 represent a death toll of 449 per million inhabitants, compared with 45 in Norway, 100 in Denmark and 58 in Finland. Its per-million tally remains lower than the corresponding figures of 555, 581 and 593 in Italy, Spain and the UK respectively.
but that stat is unlikely to unwind in its comparison with the other Nordics!



Life is short,
and art long,
opportunity fleeting,
experimentations perilous,
and judgment difficult.

Re: OT When/How does this virus thing end?
Posted by: odd-shaped vagaries (IP Logged)
Date: 03 June, 2020 14:23

Until a standard method of reporting covid19 deaths is adopted and published I feel the comparitives of each nation's 'performance' are flawed



The referee is the final arbitrary .. dementiaaahll!

Re: OT When/How does this virus thing end?
Posted by: Stopsy (IP Logged)
Date: 03 June, 2020 14:45

The most reliable method for me is the Year to date death rate compared to the average of the last 5 years.

As of yesterday 59,500 excess deaths year to date, I can't imagine why The Beloved Leader doesn't mention this number more...


FT Covid tracker



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 03/06/2020 15:22 by Stopsy.

Re: OT When/How does this virus thing end?
Posted by: Yorkie (IP Logged)
Date: 03 June, 2020 18:04

A positive virus story?

Rough start but decisive action sorted things in the end. Difficult to upscale throughout UK but doesn't mean our leaders shouldn't try. Britain an island too so comings and goings easy to identify and track. Expand from there.



http://www.jakehowlett.com/tuckshop/wrappers/chocolate/plain/yorkie-nutter.jpg

Re: OT When/How does this virus thing end?
Posted by: Brownian Motion (IP Logged)
Date: 03 June, 2020 18:49

Shetland is a remote series of islands with a geographic area of 566 square miles, a population of 23,000 and there are flight and ferry links only with mainland Great Britain.

Great Britain is not a remote island, with a geographic area 80,900 square miles, a population of 60,800,000 and as well as having a tunnel linking it directly to France, has 20 international airports and around another 40 which handle private and charter flights.

Whilst Shetland's success is to be lauded, the two simply aren't comparable, especially given GB hasn't even managed to get track-and-trace up and running in the number of months had so far.

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