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O/T Coronavirus discussion topics
Posted by: CoochieCoo (IP Logged)
Date: 18 May, 2020 18:36

Fill your boots!



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Re: OT/Coronavirus
Posted by: woodpecker (IP Logged)
Date: 18 May, 2020 17:31

Quote:
DanWiley
Quote:
king of the hill
Slight correction of terminology required. R0 is fixed for the virus for the initial population and environmental factors and does not change

But the environmental factors DO change. If you're basing R0 on the conditions during the winter you're talking about a number that has little bearing on the conditions today. You can't calculate HIT from that, which is what shipwrecked was trying to do in order to speculate on when we'll reach (or not) herd immunity. I think this is just highlighting how this number really shouldn't be the talking point it is.

I dont know how they come up with it but R0 doesnt change, its just how infectious the virus is - how capable it is at infecting in general. like compared with measles

In epidemiology, the basic reproduction number (sometimes called basic reproductive ratio, or incorrectly basic reproductive rate, and denoted R0, pronounced R nought or R zero[19]) of an infection can be thought of as the expected number of cases directly generated by one case in a population where all individuals are susceptible to infection.[16] The definition describes the state where no other individuals are infected or immunized (naturally or through vaccination). Some definitions, such as that of the Australian Department of Health, add absence of "any deliberate intervention in disease transmission".[20] The basic reproduction number is not to be confused with the effective reproduction number R (or Re), which is the number of cases generated in the current state of a population, which does not have to be the uninfected state. By definition, R0 cannot be modified through vaccination campaigns. Also, it is important to note that R0 is a dimensionless number and not a rate, which would have units of time-1,[21] or units of time like doubling time.

For measles, R0 is often cited to be 12–18, which means that each person with measles would, on average, infect 12–18 other people in a totally susceptible population

Re: OT/Coronavirus
Posted by: DanWiley (IP Logged)
Date: 18 May, 2020 17:41

"R nought or R zero[19]) of an infection can be thought of as the expected number of cases directly generated by one case in a population where all individuals are susceptible to infection."

That is currently different now from what it was in January. I don't mind if you want to use the definition that is the value at the time the infection broke out. But it makes it irrelevant months later and just a rather unhelpful value in general.

Re: OT/Coronavirus
Posted by: woodpecker (IP Logged)
Date: 18 May, 2020 17:55

Quote:
DanWiley
"R nought or R zero[19]) of an infection can be thought of as the expected number of cases directly generated by one case in a population where all individuals are susceptible to infection."
That is currently different now from what it was in January. I don't mind if you want to use the definition that is the value at the time the infection broke out. But it makes it irrelevant months later and just a rather unhelpful value in general.

R0 isnt different its the same in January, or in 2025 unless it mutates i guess, its for a population where zero people have had it.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 18/05/2020 17:55 by woodpecker.

Re: OT/Coronavirus
Posted by: DanWiley (IP Logged)
Date: 18 May, 2020 18:01

Sorry, your article says it's dependent on the environment, that environment changes.

Re: OT/Coronavirus
Posted by: woodpecker (IP Logged)
Date: 18 May, 2020 18:02

Quote:
DanWiley
Sorry, your article says it's dependent on the environment, that environment changes.

You mean like the weather?

Re: OT/Coronavirus
Posted by: DanWiley (IP Logged)
Date: 18 May, 2020 18:05

Well, that would affect the number of people infected by a single case, but it's broader than that.

"R0 is not a biological constant for a pathogen as it is also affected by other factors such as environmental conditions and the behaviour of the infected population"

Re: OT/Coronavirus
Posted by: woodpecker (IP Logged)
Date: 18 May, 2020 18:13

The whole point of it is that it is a biological constant. Clearly thats impossible as no two places on earth are the same, but its supposed to be a yardstick to compare infectiousness.

As per the Australian caveat its supposed to be what happens when nobody had heard of it and there is no mitigation/change in behaviour.

Im not saying its perfect, annd it probably no longer exists anywhere on earth so I guess the chinese data will be what its based on.

The one the government like is Re that could be 0 or 1000 depedning on what the humans do.

Re: OT/Coronavirus
Posted by: John Tee (IP Logged)
Date: 18 May, 2020 18:13

NI go further in relaxing lockdown.

Re: OT/Coronavirus
Posted by: DanWiley (IP Logged)
Date: 18 May, 2020 18:16

The article you posted from literally says is NOT a biological constant.

Re: OT/Coronavirus
Posted by: Bod (IP Logged)
Date: 18 May, 2020 18:53

Quote:
Bath Supporter Jack
Really are we so much worse than our near neighbours Spain, Italy, Belgium and France. Netherlands, Sweden (despite it appears a bit less lockdown) and Ireland a bit better than all of those.
Obviously much worse than Germany who for a Western Country with a big population have done really well and I think going forward we need to have a very, very good look at how they manage healthcare/care. They spend a bit more as %'age of GDP than us, but also as a percentage of spend public spending is a bit lower than us....

Spain will continue to smoulder across the spring and summer

smoking smiley

Re: OT/Coronavirus
Posted by: John Tee (IP Logged)
Date: 18 May, 2020 19:46

I'm confused, is this the pretend thread or for facts too.

Re: OT/Coronavirus
Posted by: CoochieCoo (IP Logged)
Date: 18 May, 2020 19:55

Quote:
John Tee
I'm confused, is this the pretend thread or for facts too.

Anything not do with the science e.g. politics, world, comparisons, blame games, opinions on timing etc

Factual info on current developments on the other thread.

The idea is to keep the politics and arguments out of the other thread so that it becomes a go to thread for reference.



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Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 18/05/2020 19:57 by CoochieCoo.

Re: OT/Coronavirus
Posted by: woodpecker (IP Logged)
Date: 18 May, 2020 20:05

Quote:
John Tee
I'm confused, is this the pretend thread or for facts too.

So you can post a true fact on one site, then if you have an opinion on it, you post that on the other site.

Re: OT/Coronavirus
Posted by: CoochieCoo (IP Logged)
Date: 18 May, 2020 20:24

Quote:
woodpecker
Quote:
John Tee
I'm confused, is this the pretend thread or for facts too.

So you can post a true fact on one site, then if you have an opinion on it, you post that on the other site.

A fact is a fact however if there an alternative view to that fact backed up by science then debate it on the other thread but if you just don’t agree with the fact and wish to express an alternative view to debate then use this thread.



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Re: OT/Coronavirus
Posted by: The Bear (IP Logged)
Date: 18 May, 2020 21:00

What does Coronavirus discussion topics even mean? The old thread title - Coronavirus - was much clearer. I knew exactly what I needed to post. Now there is confusion. Where is the detailed guidance? I guess this is a win for the discussion topic-sceptics...

Besides it is too early to release discussion topics... We're still not sure the forum has adequate capacity for discussion posts and we should wait until discussion posts are eliminated before we release them. Despite a recent uptick the threaddown was working and we could have been safe.

Not to mention the slow initial response compared to other forums, who implemented Coronavirus threads far earlier. Now have a far higher number of discussion topic posts. Why didn't the moderators act earlier?

(I take it this is a proper use of the Coronavirus discussion topics - CDT - thread?).



Adopted Player:
[18] - Taulupe Faletau

Re: OT/Coronavirus
Posted by: joethefanatic (IP Logged)
Date: 18 May, 2020 21:08

I understand the thought behind this split but I think it is causing a lot of confusion and hindering discussion and debate.

I would vote for a merge of the 2 threads.



... IMHO, of course.

Now in Honolulu

Re: OT/Coronavirus
Posted by: CoochieCoo (IP Logged)
Date: 18 May, 2020 21:27

Quote:
joethefanatic
I understand the thought behind this split but I think it is causing a lot of confusion and hindering discussion and debate.
I would vote for a merge of the 2 threads.

As I said discuss the science on the fact thread other political debate ‘ere! Stay Alert!



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Re: Existing Salary Cap and Marquee Players must be retained
Posted by: Mike the Taxi (IP Logged)
Date: 18 May, 2020 21:20

[www.dailymail.co.uk] - Soames travels to Scotland

Think you meant this thread Mike so have moved it!



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 18/05/2020 21:31 by CoochieCoo.

Re: O/T Coronavirus discussion topics
Posted by: Bod (IP Logged)
Date: 18 May, 2020 21:43

Confirmation of Denmark halving social distancing

A couple of usefully balanced caveats, but I read it basically as "Use your common sense" and don't get too hung up on hand gels.

(Sm85)

"We are here clarifying that in most cases, a minimum of 1 meter is sufficient," the (Danish Health) Authority said in a press release.

"The most important thing about preventing the spread of infection with Covid-19 is that people with symptoms self-isolate in their own homes or are isolated in hospital," Søren Brostrøm, the authority's Director General, said in the release."


D'you reckon this would be a science based decision?

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