Japan RWC Preview
By Duncan Keane
September 9 2011
Picture the scene. The host nation’s opening match launching the 2011 World Cup. What an occasion! A packed national stadium as Japan take on France, what a great moment for Japanese and World Rugby. The Brave Blossoms sniff an upset, the world is watching, an opportunity to expand the game to new frontiers seized, rugby growing and developing as a world sport, pats on the back all round for the International Rugby Board (IRB) for their foresight on 17th November 2005 to expand, grow the game, take the showpiece event around the world.
Of course, that is an alternative reality.
Football’s international governing body (FIFA), come in for a lot of stick and most of it is deserved, but they relentlessly push the boundaries with their big tournaments, making them truly global events, backing the minnows in their qualification decisions and taking the big competition to less established footballing countries.
There is an obvious contrast to be made with the members of the IRB and that decision in November 2005. How that decision was made is shrouded in secrecy, both at the time and since. Many journalists have expressed concern at the lack of transparency in the voting arrangements and the negotiations surrounding the voting. We do know that the voting was held in secret thanks to a late proposal by the Irish Rugby Union to have a secret ballot. We know that the first round of voting saw Japan in the lead, but New Zealand had won by the end of round two as the South Africa vote changed to New Zealand once they were eliminated. The key switch in round two was Argentina changing to vote for New Zealand, as revealed by the Daily Telegraph in January 2006 when they uncovered some Argentine committee meeting minutes, the only formal record of the vote. Argentina made a decision based on the future expansion of rugby in their country, it was real-politik, but understandable. Since 2005 Argentina have enjoyed far greater access to the top table of world rugby.
Who else voted for New Zealand? Did the Celts fudge it? We don’t know much. From press reports at the time, Australia seem to have voted for Japan, much to the chagrin of New Zealand, so an ANZAC block vote seems unlikely. As we’ve heard, Ireland proposed the secret ballot and strongly refuted claims they voted for New Zealand in return for the All Blacks playing at the opening of the new Lansdowne Road (note the new Lansdowne Road opened in 2011 and South Africa were the first match opponents, New Zealand were third). In the seven year’s before the vote, Scotland hosted the All Blacks once, Wales 3 times and Ireland twice. Since the vote, Scotland have hosted the All Blacks 4 times, Wales 4 times and Ireland 3 times. So if anyone has benefitted it has been the Scots, but there’s no evidence any of that is connected. Pro-New Zealand commentators noted Japan’s poor bid pitch, leaving the details to the final presentation and not canvassing key votes. Not something the Kiwis could be accused of. New Zealand undertook a tour of Great Britain and Ireland in the month before the vote and were in a convincing mood to win the extra votes the home nations have under the bizarre IRB voting structure.
I started my research for this article very much of the opinion that Japan should have been hosting this tournament. But their moment will come in 2019. An 8 year delay in rugby isn’t too long and the help Argentina have received is a real boost to the sport, maybe a good decision was made in the end.
Moving on to the real preview, Japanese Rugby has been a feature of every world cup so far. Once known as the “Cherry Blossoms” and now “Brave Blossoms”, they’ve competed with a distinctive open playing style and entertained, but lost all but two games, with one win vs Zimbabwe in 1991 and a draw vs Canada in 2007. One of the most rewarding aspects of the rugby world cup is nations playing their style, whether it’s Argentina sticking it up the jumper or Fiji running from behind their line. Japan have previously played Fiji-style, but as they rise up the world rankings I imagine they will develop a tighter, territorial game. Japan are coached by the famous all black John Kirwan, who’s previous reign in charge of Italy saw the Azurri winning two games at the 2003 RWC. A record try scoring wing in the All Blacks illustrious history, Kirwan is one of a growing number of former athletes to talk about their struggles with depression, writing about it in the excellent book All Blacks Don’t Cry.
Under Kirwan, Japan have relentlessly risen up the world rankings, reaching 11th in the world before dropping to 13th, barely a ranking point behind Italy and Samoa, will their opponents recognise and respect this improvement? Going on the World Rankings, this is a crackerjack of a group; Tonga, Japan and Canada are incredibly close ranked 12, 13 and 14. Their group within a group has the capacity to be one of the highlights of the group stages. Whatever you do, watch their clashes. Tonga vs Japan on Wednesday 21st September should be a great game.
Japan are in recent superb form, winning the 2011 Pacific Nations Cup alongside their obligatory victory in the Asian Five Nations. Japan have big targets for the future, aiming to get in the world’s top 8 by 2015 and the top 2 for their home tournament 4 years later. The format of the Pacific Nations Cup is a league table with losing and try scoring bonus points. Similar to a Heineken Cup or World Cup group. In the final game, Japan needed a bonus point win away at Fiji to finish on 10 points, level with Tonga and take the title on head to head record. They managed it in cinematic style, with an 84th minute try to seal the win and bonus point. A fired up Fiji lost their heads and the Japanese players were lucky not to literally lose theirs. The Brave Blossoms ended up playing against 13 men or less for more than half the match and 12 players for the last few minutes. Two Fijian red cards for high swinging arms included one for our esteemed former centre Seru Rabeni, who surely never get caught up in any trouble. The tackles were dangerous. Had the game been on Sky, Stuart Barnes’ coffee would have spat out of his mouth ruining Miles Harrison’s best trousers, especially given the culprits and his fondness for stereotyping bad tackling to certain nations. The straight reds from Irishman Peter Fitzgibbon were on the recommendation of South African assistant Marius Jonker. Butch James must feel relieved his countryman’s interpretations aren’t followed week in week out in world rugby. Judge for yourself if Jonker was right, by searching ‘Fiji vs Japan PNC 2011 big hits’ on YouTube. Parental caution advised.
Possibly they were lucky to claim the title, and they were comprehensively despatched by Samoa during the tournament, but all the sides showed weakness (as the 6 nations and tri-nations have too) so it would be churlish to deny them the glory. The way they held their nerve on the final play to get the score they needed was certainly glorious and reminiscent of that Canada game in RWC2007 where they snatched a draw with an excellent try on the final play. This side has a history of playing to the death, so don’t switch off.
Since 2003, Japan’s players have played in the Top League, a strong domestic league backed by the super-brands, Toyota, Honda, Ricoh, Sanyo etc. Foreign players are limited to 3 per side, possibly a surprising fact for those that perceive the Japanese league as full of imports. Many commentators mention the number of non-Japanese origin players in their league and squad, I’ve never been to Japan, but I’ve been to a lot of big democracies, super world economies. They all have immigrants. I’ve just come back from Iceland, and there were plenty of non-Icelandic residents, from pole to pole, movement of people between countries is a global fact and has been for a long time. Japan is a major world power with everything that comes with that including migrants coming to the country through work. Every major rugby nation has players born or developed in different countries; it’s a feature of international sport. Where a country has a particularly prominent ethnicity this issue seems to be highlighted more, bluntly the strapping Tongan stands out more in a Japan shirt than a New Zealand one. But England and Scotland have been doing it for years and it strikes me that there is a naivety in the sporting press surrounding immigration to countries outside the English speaking world. Japan has 2.2 million resident foreign nationals. “Westerners” make up a low percentage of this number but have been encouraged strongly since the 1980’s. Kirwan claimed recently the squad has nine foreign players (arguably less than England) with three of those (Vatuvei, Holani and Leach) childhood immigrants with their families and the remainders beneficiarys of the IRB residency rules. There’s clearly a debate to be had over the rights and wrongs of those residency rules, but it seems unfair and lazy to single out Japan.
Introducing the likely squad and it’s key players is a near impossible task for someone with my lack of knowledge of the players. There is a 16 – 14 split in favour of Forwards. Many of the players have similar number of caps, between 3 and 15, showing Kirwan’s habit of mixing and matching between the various tournaments and the freshness of the ‘Japaneseness’ of some of the players. 9 of the squad played in the 2007 world cup and it will be interesting to see if they form an experienced core or are mainly back-up’s to newer players.
At prop it looks quite simple, Hirashima and Hatakeyama are on 10 and 9 caps respectively and seem to play against the bigger nations. Kawamata and Fujita make up the squad and given the nature of the position should get plenty of game time.
The Hooking birth seems to be between Shota Horie with 8 caps all since 2010 and the Pacific Nations Cup starter Yusuke Aoki. Hiroki Yuhara has 3 caps and is an often unused sub, so presumably is in the back up role. He will hope to have more of an impact, possibly emulating Luke Thompson who had played only 3 times for Japan before the 2007 World Cup where he had a major impact scoring two tries vs Fifi and starting 3 of their matches. Kirwan will possibly go for the experienced lock combination of Thompson and Hitoshi Ono, but probably will opt for Thompson and his fellow New Zealander by birth Justin Ives. Toshizumi Kitagawa makes up the Lock quartet.
Possibly some of the second rows or one of the hookers may see some action in the back row where only 5 players have been selected and three of those are listed as No. 8’s by trade. The flankers are likely to be Sione Vatuvei and 18 cap Michael Leitch, either side of captain Takashi Kikutani. Tongan born Ryukoliniasi Holani and Itaru Taniguchi offer the alternatives. Holani is coming back from fitness and some reports claim he will start at 8 when fit with Vatuvei dropping to the bench and Kikutani moving to six. This looks a strong area of the team in terms of experience and past playing ability, the ground speed and recycling of this unit is crucial to Japan’s fast game plan.
Tomoki Yoshida played every game in 2007 and offers a steady hand on the tiller at 9 unless Fumiaki Tanaka or Atsushi Hiwasa are preferred. At Fly-Half, Murray Williams started the last warm up match vs the USA but will probably end up as back up to either Nottingham’s James Arlidge. Yes, Nottingham just north of Leicester or Shaun Webb of the Coca Cola West Red’s. Arlidge is a Flutey-esque example of the modern professional rugby player knowing and using the residency rules to their full advantage. New Zealand Born, played super 12 games for Auckland before spending three years nationalising in Japan. His journey then took him to Newport Gwent Dragons and now to the new Nottingham squad. I expect Shaun Webb will be selected ahead of him but can imagine some kind of 10/12 or fly half full back shuffle at some stage to get them both on the park. Fly half is a position where Japan are likely to receive most criticism for their reliance on imports.
Watch out for outside centre Alisi Tupuailai he scored 5 tries in one match in the Asian 5 nations and started the recent warm up vs the USA. It will be interesting to see if his recent partnership with Ryan Nicholas continues or if the 2007 partnership of Koji Taira and Yuta Imamura is preferred.
There may be room for one of the fly halves or centres in a wing or full back position, as the remaining places in the squad are taken by new boys Tahei Ueda and Takehisa Usuzuki alongside experienced try scorers Hirotoki Onozawa and Kosuke Endo. Both showed serious gas in the 2007 matches and will hope to keep their places. Endo is a key player and recently had a stint as replacement captain.
The tournament splits in to dream and reality for Japan. Firstly the dream, matches on weekend one and two against France and New Zealand, then the reality of their mini group with Tonga, and Canada. With a Friday – Wednesday turn around between the New Zealand and Tonga games, they may follow their RWC2007 practice of resting some players vs the big gun to leave them fresh for the next match. This has led to some big thrashings in the past from the Antipodian giants. What would be success for Japan? Usually the answer is to put on a good show, to compete, to maybe come away with some points. But not this time, Fifth place would be a major disappointment after their rise in the world rankings. Fourth place (something achieved twice in 1991 and 2007) wouldn’t be progress but if they had a close match with Tonga could be seen as acceptable. Realistically, two wins or third place by any other combination of bonus points draws would be a major success. They would automatically qualify for the 2015 World Cup and another Asian team would qualify alongside them potentially leaving a more established nation to miss out. Unless of course the IRB fancied another portion of fudge…
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Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2011:09:17:10:18:18 by Stephen Bath.
