ECC: We do the maths, so you don't have to!

By Jason Harris
January 14 2007

Ignore that Sky Sports omitted a capital letter 'Q' next to Saracens at the top of the Pool 2 table; Sarries are DEFINITELY through to the European Challenge Cup Quarter Finals. Where they end up in the quarter final seedings is another matter entirely. So engage brain before reading on!

Even if Sarries draw a blank at Hughenden against Glasgow and in turn hand the Pool 2 title to the Warriors, they will still have 24 points as runners up. Of the other second placed teams in the other four Pools, only Bristol from Pool 1 can catch or overtake Sarries as runners up as they have 20 points from their five games.

The other three second placed teams Harlequins, Newcastle and Worcester have 16, 16 and 15 respectively so, with three runner-up slots available in the last eight, Saracens will be seeded at least 7th as they cannot be caught by any of those three teams.

So should the worst happen in Scotland, the potential destination will remain a mystery until tea time on Saturday, by which time all the Round 6 results will be known.

Pool 1
The Dragons currenly sit on top of the table on 20 poinst with Bristol, as mentioned above, in second on the same amount. Unless Bucuresti cause the biggest upset in European history and win at the Memorial Stadium on Friday night, Bristol look set fair to finish on 25 points, but if the Dragons take a bonus point win at Bayonne, it will be the Welsh side that will go through because they scored more points during the two games played between the sides.

If the Dragons fail to match the Premiership leaders, then Bristol will win the Pool and the Dragons' best hope is to finish on 24 points, the same as Sarries' total.

The tie break critera between two teams from different Pools will start with tries scored in all Pool games and Sarries have eight more than the Dragons, so a 4-point win in the Basque country won't be good enough for them to leapfrog Sarries in the best runner-up stakes. Sarries will then be seeded sixth, no ifs or buts. A defeat for the Welshmen opens a whole new set of permutations, so let's not go there as it won't affect the Saracens seeding.

Pool 3
Brive are on top here on 20 points and Newcastle are second on 16. Should Brive win their final game at home to Montauban and take a bonus point, they will also be up there on 25 alongside the winners of Pool 1. Brive, however, will have a higher seeding as they are joint top try scorers on 30 - the same number as Sarries and so Bristol will have to score 10 more tries and the Dragons seven more if they are to usurp the 1997 Heineken Champions.

Newcastle will need a bonus point win away at Petrarca and hope that Harlequins, also on 16 points, don't score six more tries (that'll be at least 10)than them against Connacht to ensure that they take the third runner-up spot.

Pool 4
Bath are already safely ensconced in the knock-out phase and if they win the Pool with a full house six wins from six, they could be seeded as high as second if that sixth win comes with a try bonus point. A five-point haul on Saturday will move them to 26 points, a tally that only Clermont Auvergne can improve upon.

Quins, as mentioned above, will need to run riot against Connacht to be in with a chance to grab the last quarter final place or hope that Newcastle slip up in Italy.

Pool 5
Clermont-Auvergne are the other team to have already won their Pool as they have 24 points, nine ahead of second placed Worcester. A home victory next Saturday against winless, pointless Albi will ensure that ASM will finish the Pool stages as number one seeds on 28 or 29 points.

Wuss, meanwhile, will have to hit and hope after they failed to take a losing bonus against the Frenchmen in Round 5. With the fewest points of the second-placed teams going into the final round of matches, the Warriors will have to win at Viadana and take a try bonus before crossing their fingers in the hope that Quins or Newcastle will slip up.

In Summary (making a whole raft of assumptions) we could have the following quarter final seedings if Saracens get nothing from Glasgow and the form book is reliable:

Scenario 1 - Dragons win Pool 1

1st - ASM Clermont-Auvergne 28 points
2nd - Bath 26 points
3rd - Brive 25 points

4th and 5th will be the Dragons and Glasgow, but home advantage will depend upon whether Glasgow get a bonus point and, if so, which side has the most tries in their respective Pool. Should Glasgow not get a try bonus in a win over Sarries, then they'll finish on 24 points, one behind the Dragons, and so they'll be 5th seed and the Dragons 4th.

If Glasgow cut loose take a try bonus point, then the Dragons will have to score at least two more tries and 18 more points than the Warriors to pip them to 4th seed.

6th - Bristol 25 points
7th - Saracens 24 points

8th - Newcastle 21 points (on try count over Quins)

If this scenario pans out, then Sarries will be off to the Rec to play Bath for a home tie in the semi-finals.

Scenario 2

Bristol win Pool 1

1st - ASM Clermont-Auvergne 28 points
2nd - Bath 26 points
3rd - Brive 25 points

4th and 5th will again be a scrap between Glasgow and the Pool 1 winner for home advantage in the quarters. The same situation arises for the Scots - if they fail to score a bonus point, then Bristol will be seeded 4th. If Glasgow get a maximum five, then Bristol will need to score at least nine tries to make 4th seed as their points difference is vastly inferor to that of Glasgow.

6th - Saracens 24 points
7th - Dragons 24 points
8th - Newcastle 21 points

This scenario will see Sarries heading for Brive with the reward for the winners being an away semi at Bath or Newport.

And so we leave the best, and most simple, scenario until last: A Saracens win up in Glasgow.

With a try total that is nine greater than ASM - we have 30, they have 21 - Sarries would probably need just the four points to ensure a no.1 seeding on 28 points. If this happens, then the quarter final seeds could look like this.

1st - Saracens 28 points
2nd - ASM 28 points
3rd - Bath 26 points
4th - Brive 25 points
5th - Bristol/Dragons 25 points
6th - Bristol/Dragons 24 points

7th and 8th seedings will go to teams on 21 points, no doubt. Glasgow will be in the box seat if they can acquire a losing bonus point in a defeat against Sarries as they have scored six more tries than Newcastle and 11 more than Quins. If they don't then they will, most likely, be eliminated.

Scenario A - Glasgow finish on 21 points
7th - Glasgow 21 points
8th - Newcastle 21 points

Scenario B - Glasgow finish on 20 points
7th - Newcastle
8th - Harlequins

My bet is that Sarries, should they win Pool 2, will be at home to Newcastle in the quarter finals, but with 10 matches still to play, it'll be anyone's guess as to who'll be going where the last weekend in March.

Confused? You most certainly will be!