To knee jerk or not to knee jerk that is the question

The race has begun and to coin the phrase used by our local Worcester News rugby reporter, a certain amount of coffee smelling needs to happen. But who should be working their nostrils?

The obvious answer and recently well-voiced opinion of the vocal minority is Richard Hill. That he should open his eyes and make changes or even step aside, but is he the right person to aim the disappointment at? Should we not support our head coach for being determined to stick to his vision, his game plan and shape the squad into the exciting, attacking style of play we all year for, after last seasons defend, defend, defend?

Our 2013 Premiership performances, though few, are our poorest run this season, picking up only 1 point out of a possible 15, having picked up 6 points from a possible 15 in the previous 3 league games. Dare I say, is it possible that the reduced number of league games, so far in 2013, is exaggerating the impression that we are in a slump and heading for the bottom of the league?

We currently have an average of 1.7 league points, per game. Though clearly not enough to fulfill the preseason target of a top 6 finish, it is much better than the teams bellow us in the league. Extrapolated to the end of the season this would result it 37.4 points – 37 for cash. If I edge on the side of caution and reduce this prediction, based on our remaining fixtures, to 34 points, although this would not be considered an improvement season on season, it should however keep us well clear of a relegation battle. How do I come to this conclusion?

Being conservative I see the remaining games going: Gloucester away – Loss, Wasps at home – LBP, Irish away – LBP, Exeter at home – LBP, Sarries away – Loss, Quins home – LBP, Welsh away – Win. This would give us 34 points by the end of the season. Without going into to much detail on our potential relegation competitors:

Sale currently have 19 points, have been averaging 1.27 points per game and are hitting form. If they continue without improvement then they would end with 28 points. I predict improvement so would guess 33 points.

Irish are on 20 points and also making improvements week on week and with an average of 1.33 points per game should end on 30+ points. Out of all the teams in the mix, they probably feel the most confident and most secure.

Based on age, perceived squad importance and recent performances the following could be considered talent drain, if not retained:

London Welsh though seem to have lost the edge they were promoted with. Although they have an average points tally of 1.47 per game and if continued would secure 32 – 33 points they appear to be in decline. Welsh have 4 wins but no win since the first day of December 2012 and are now picking up less bonus points both home and away. Of the 4 teams considered to be fighting relegation I think they have the hardest run in. Only 2 of their remaining games are at home; being Saints and Worcester, I do not think they will pick up more than 1 point from those games. With away trips to Exeter, Sarries, Gloucester, Bath and Irish I really struggle to see them pick up another win this season.

Currently Welsh are on 22 points and they will have battled well if they make it to 28 points by the end of the season. Making them my favorite for relegation and our benchmark for points. If this is the case, then just 3 more points this season would prevent another Championship season for Worcester.

So now that we have a run in and that run in looks more likely to be one looking over our shoulder than looking up to the Heineken Cup who does need to smell the coffee? Who is responsible for putting us in this position? What has changed since September when the board, management and players were all singing the same song – we have improved, the future is bright, we are a different team… the superlatives went on. One key thing is different from the joined up message dispersed through the press and jolly PowerPoint presentations – The club clearly stated it’s intention was to have ALL retained players’ contracts negotiated and resolved BY January 2013. At the time of writing this, publically we have Euan Murray, George Porter, Ed Shervington, Sam Betty, Richard de Carpentier, Jonny Arr, Josh Drauniniu and Chris Pennell retained. By my maths, we had a speculated 24 players out of contract this season, if the board and the Director of Rugby Operations have met their preseason objective then 16 current players are leaving the club at the end of the 2012/13 season. We know that Matt Mullan, Matt Kvesic, Andy Short and Errie Claassens are leaving, currently we are expecting Andy Goode and Joe Carlisle are set to depart to pastures new, but what about the rest?

We hear that the players are not happy, but assume it is Hill’s fault. We hear that some players are causing trouble or stirring within the squad and label Hill as being to blame. We see disjointed performances and players not following the game plan and blame the coaches, but maybe, just maybe, the players, the team and the squad are as unsettled about their unsecured and unpublicized futures as the fans? If so then the board and the company, having missed it’s publicly stated objective, are more to blame than; the forwards coach, or the missing in action attack coach or even the head coach. Maybe Corin Palmer the man in charge of securing the playing talent should hold his head up and smell the coffee? .

As for the end to the 2012/13 season – I think we will be safe. Having to play both Irish and Welsh, although away from home, I think helps us keep the future of the clubs elite league status in our own hands and at this stage in the season that is critical. I do feel that this season will be chalked up as one to forget, that, based on the so far reported signings, next season can only get better. I also fear that the wish of too many fans may be realized and Hill may be sacrificed meaning that we, Worcester Warriors fans, will have to start the “3 seasons to get back on track” all over again!