England V Wales - My Thoughts

The match is almost upon us, a game 2/3 years in the making, I have not looked forward to a match as much as the World Cup match tomorrow, since the ill fated 2011 World Cup semi-final against France. Both sides have been selected, and been a number of ex players, journalists expressing their views on the selections, for this piece I look at what I see as the key battles and my thoughts on these, and also who I see coming out on top at the end of 80 minutes.  

Team Selections

England have reverted to strong physical backs, who will play a tight game, running at the 10,12 channel, so that their forwards and in particular back row will not need to go to wide to support the runners.  I was not surprised by the selections made by Stuart Lancaster. Owen Farrell is an outstanding goal kicker and physically stronger than Ford, so I felt was going to get the nod.  With Jamie Joseph injured, Sam Burgess was more than likely going to be the pick in the centre, alongside the defensively strong Brad Barritt.  In the forwards, had a choice to make in the second row with Joe Launchbury pushing hard, as a hard working second rower, who can ball carry, but with doubts over the English line out have gone with Geoff Parling, who is very adept at line out time and off restarts.  With Ben Morgan picking up an injury the selectional decision at 8 was made for Lancaster, so Billy Vunipola got the call.

Welsh selection was in doubt with a few injury doubts through the week, however, the team that has been selected is a strong line up. Some of the biggest decisions was who was going to get one of the wing slots, which has gone to Hallam Amos, who would get the nod at scrum half, which has gone to Gareth Davies, would Wales find a place for Justin Tipuric, who has put in some outstanding performances for Wales in recent weeks, or revert to the tried and trusted back row trio of Lydiate, Faletau and Warburton, which with the English selection and clear plan of keeping it tight and try to get big ball carriers over the gainline, Gatland went with his trusted trio, which was no surprise. The last big call to make was who was going to partner Alun Wyn-Jones in the second row, and that role has been given to ex Cardiff Blues player Bradley Davies, who was outstanding in the warm up match against Ireland, with his strong ball carries and physical work at rucks.

Key Battles and Questions To Be Answered

Firstly key battles, first one up has to be Sam Burgess up against Jamie Roberts.  Burgess has only played just over 100 minutes of international rugby union for England, there is no doubting his rugby ability and his ability to offload, however what will his defensive positioning sense be if Wales go through the phases, will he get caught out of position? I fully expect him to cope off first phase when Roberts goes straight at him and Farrell, is when game gets looser, I will be interested to see how he does.

Joe Marler against Tomas Francis, Marler had an excellent 6 nations, but struggled recently, Francis has come on the international scene only recently and has 3 caps to date, looks very strong in the tight but his general fitness looks like needs work, can he go late enough into the game, especially if Sansom Lee who is on the bench, who is not fully fit cannot go 40/50 minutes. Could play a massive part in the outcome of the game.

Dan Cole against Gethin Jenkins, Cole is an outstanding tight head, can scrummage well and like Gethin is outstanding at the breakdown, Gethin is one of the greatest Welsh players we have ever produced, his intelligence in defence and leadership qualities are so important to this team, however, he does get penalised a lot at scrum time, if the referee Jerome Garces starts penalising Gethin then Wales could have major problems, we do not have the luxury of being able to replace Gethin with a very strong prop like Paul James due to an injury, so the replacement would be Aaron Jarvis, who is a tight head by trade, not a loosehead, so could be a problem.

Back row will be a huge battle, Wales will look to chop down ball carriers like Lawes, Vunipola, Youngs and Burgess at source via Dan Lydiate, and then get Warburton, Faletau and Jenkins over the ball to try to get the turnover, Fiji did this 11 times last week, so if England are as loose again, Wales will be in a strong position.

In terms of questions to be answered, starting with England first, will a clear game plan help the players, will Farrell who plays deeper than Ford, aid Wales as Burgess and Barritt's starting point will be deeper than if Ford was the distributor.  With Barritt playing at 13, will his lack of pace in a wider role cause him issues covering the ground, with in opposition Scott Williams who has quick feet and rugby intelligence.  Will Tom Youngs line out throwing stand up under pressure of a England v Wales match, and no doubt Wales sending jumpers in the air in certain situations.  How will Jonny May cope with the sheer power of George North coming at him, I am yet to be convinced by May, he is good with ball in hand but not sure of his defence.  Can Robshaw compete with Warburton at the breakdown, and can his back up players compete with Wales and their ability at the breakdown.

With Wales, is Liam Williams fully fit at full back after his bang last weekend, can Hallam Amos slot in on the wing and deal with the occasion, I expect Farrell to try cross kicks and I feel picking Amos over Cuthbert was the correct move all round but especially if aerial bombardment comes onto the wings, Amos is a much better footballer and has played full back for the Newport Gwent Dragons.  Can Gareth Davies find the form he had with the Scarlets from 2 seasons ago, when he was outstanding, can he control the game and pick and choose his trademark snipes. Can Lydiate stop England's ball carriers on the gainline, stop their momentum at source making England's back row work in the ground even more difficult. Can Dan Biggar on a big international occasion slot over the penalties to keep scoreboard ticking over.

Tactics

Fully expect England to play a tight game, with Farrell kicking for territory when not sending their big runners in the channels, England will not want to go too wide unless numbers are very much at their advantage, as the England back row will want to stay close to give them a better chance of getting to the breakdown. They will look to use the driving maul and try to pick up penalties where they can, will be attritional, and their bench also supports this.

Wales will want to play with a higher tempo, will want to get around the corner and get quick ball. Their choice of scrum half and replacement backs this up, they will want to play with speed, pick and drive with Wyn-Jones and Faletau and move the English team around.  They will send North and Roberts off first phase and work off that.  Wales are very strong under the high ball in attack and Mike Brown will have a massive part to play for England in this area.  Will be interesting to see how Wales cope with the driving mauls especially with no Luke Charteris in first fifteen, who is outstanding at causing disruptions with his long wing span.

Outcome

Ultimately, will come down to gets the ascendency in the forwards, and who can play off the platform their respective forwards give them, and I think Wales have the edge upfront, both benches are strong and will have an impact on the game, England will send on Maku Vunipola, Joe Launchbury and Rob Webber and expect them to really add to the physicality, Wales will have Ken Owens, Luke Charteris and if game is opening up, Justin Tipuric and look to take advantage of tiring legs.

I cannot wait, and just writing this gets the heart rate up, I am going with Wales to win by 4 points, 24-28, it promises to be a great night.