Rotherham v London Welsh Preview
By Mark W-J
January 5 2012
Not just a New Year, but a chance for London Welsh to start afresh after a December to forget. After just one win from five games, failing to beat two of the Championship’s bottom four sides at Old Deer Park, and collecting just seven league points from a possible twenty in the process, we now face three of the division’s top five sides in a January which could make or break our season.
Only one club - Bristol - picked-up two wins over the holiday period, as a result of which they have become the first club to be mathematically certain of qualification for the promotion play-offs, while at the other end Esher, despite breaking their duck after 14 consecutive defeats with a draw at ODP and victory over Rotherham, are now unable to escape from the bottom four. We still sit in third place in the table because the clubs around us have been taking points from one another - Bedford lost heavily at Bristol but beat the Pirates, while Nottingham have lost to both Bristol and Rotherham since their big win over Welsh three weeks ago. The Titans’ defeat at Esher on New Year’s Eve will give them plenty of motivation to repeat their win over Welsh in mid-October, their first away win in nearly 14 months. They have a 100% record at Clifton Lane this season, with Bristol and Bedford among the teams to have returned home with nowt; only Leeds have claimed a losing bonus point there this term.
The problem with a 12-team Championship, complete with play-offs, is that familiarity breeds contempt. Supporters are often heard to say ‘You know exactly what to expect from Moseley/ Bedford/ Rotherham etc’; but our Head Coach is new to club rugby in England, especially in the second-tier of the domestic game, and he freely admitted in his programme notes for the last meeting with Rotherham that he’d never seen them play before. Nobody present that afternoon will forget the ease with which they tore our much-vaunted defence to shreds, with Tom Foden and Palepoi Nonu - brothers of Ben and Ma’a, respectively - to the fore. At the time we were top of the Championship, our highest ever place in 25 years of league rugby, with 25 points from six matches (five wins and five bonus points) and top of the try-scoring charts with 24 at an average of four per game. Yet in the ten games since that day we’ve collected just 24 points, with four wins, two draws, four defeats and four bonus points, scoring just 23 tries. The management have highlighted the injury list - 15 players were unavailable for selection against Esher last week - but the supporters are bemused by some of the selections and it hasn’t gone unnoticed that the players seem to have been ignoring instructions from the bench in recent weeks.
So now is not a good time to face three of our closest rivals back-to-back. Bristol’s demolition of Bedford on Sky just before Christmas suggests that they’re coming into form at exactly the right time, but they were hammered 44-6 at Rotherham back in October, the Titans’ biggest home win since a 62-5 thrashing of Newbury in November 2008. Although they ran out of steam in last year’s play-offs, losing all six matches in Pool B, they haven’t lost at home in a regular league fixture for a calendar year, since Plymouth’s 22-21 win at Clifton Lane on New Year’s Day 2011; they followed that defeat with home wins over three of the four play-off semi-finalists - Cornish Pirates (19-18), London Welsh (29-13) and Bristol (22-21). Lyn Jones please take note.
Despite our recent travails we are the division’s third highest try-scorers with 47 (Bedford and Pirates have 58 apiece) while we share the best defensive record with Bristol, each having conceded just 26 tries, and have the lowest points against tally (293). However, as all of our supporters - and a fair few officials - are aware, our discipline is our Achilles heel, with only Leeds having conceded more points from penalties than the Welsh. And this weekend we need to be especially careful, as the Titans’ Scottish fly-half Gary Law has kicked 226 points (54 penalties, 29 conversions and two drop-goals) in his fifteen appearances - more than Gordon Ross (132) and Alex Davies (70) put together - and topping 20 points in a game on five separate occasions. Their top try-scorer is former Plymouth flanker Robin Copeland with 10, one ahead of Ed Jackson, while Copeland, Pale Nonu, and winger Shane Monahan are among the fifteen players in the Championship who have played in all sixteen of their club’s league fixtures this season.
Like London Welsh, Rotherham would have difficulties meeting the minimum ground criteria for the Championship, never mind the Premiership, as a consequence of sharing their facilities with a cricket club. Although they have floodlights they are of insufficient strength to be used for league rugby, so Saturday’s game has been brought forward to 1pm – our meeting last year was postponed from December and was subsequently played on a Wednesday afternoon in mid-January, yet at 903 the crowd was still bigger than we attracted for five of our 14 home games. Titans are investigating the possibilities of a groundshare at either Rotherham United’s former ground, Millmoor, where they played during their last season in the Premiership - although negotiations are said to have broken-down over Christmas - or the Don Valley Stadium in Sheffield, where the football club are currently based, for any future assault on the Premiership. Head Coach Andre Bester isn’t someone who settles for second-best, and the club’s management - like ours - are quite bullish about their chances of fulfilling the cartel’s strict criteria should they emerge victorious from the play-offs.
The London Welsh fans aren’t as optimistic as the Board at the moment, as we’ve gone three league games without a win for the second time this season. Failure to win on Saturday would represent our worst run in the league since we lost Danny Wilson’s first four games in charge in November-December 2008. The half-time score of 0-0 against Moseley was the first time that Welsh have played a scoreless first half since an 11-7 win over Birmingham Solihull (Pertemps Bees) at ODP on 24th March 2001, and many of the supporters were comparing stories about their darkest days as a London Welsh fan. Let’s put things in perspective - on paper we’re the 15th best club in England at present, which is a far cry from the ‘good old days’ at High Wycombe, Basingstoke and North Walsham. There’s nothing to worry about - it’s simply a case of us not understanding Lyn’s masterplan…
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I'm not and never have been a fair weather supporter. I will of course from time to time voice my oppinion about matters at ODP and the team but regardless of this they can always depend on me giving them my support. "C'MON YOU WELSH" PADDYTAF.
I suspect that once you add in penalty tries that we have a clear lead over Leeds in that department!
Good luck oop North, guys. Sounds a pretty tough nut to crack; but it's a new year, so maybe we'll benefit from a bit of goodwill from the officials at last?
Quote:TC08
I suspect that once you add in penalty tries that we have a clear lead over Leeds in that department!
We've conceded 150 points from penalties and Leeds have conceded 213 against an average across the division of 133; Bristol (147) and Rotherham (135) are the only other teams to exceed the average. However, these four clubs also have the best defensive records in terms of tries conceded.
This suggests that;
a) our defences are harder to break-down, so the opposition are more reliant upon penalties to keep the scoreboard ticking-over, and/ or;
b) the stronger defence means that the attacking team is unable to profit from any advantage being played, so the referee is more likely to return to the original penalty to allow a kick at goal.
Quote:Ian H
Any correlation with yellow cards in the "red zone"?
Esher have received most yellows (14), but have conceded the most points from tries and the fewest from penalties. Welsh (12 yellows), Leeds (10) and Roth (9) are 2nd, 4th and 5th respectively. Bedford have had only two players binned this season.
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2012:01:07:10:21:02 by londonbound.
Were you telling me the other day that of our 12 yellows a total of six have been given to front row players? Says a lot about our scrum and breakdown play and possibly how this part of the game is now being approached by opponents and referees alike.
Must admit I find the number of yellows quite astonishing - I suppose it is some relief that they are predominantly (all?) technical and not for foul play meaning that we are not a particularly dirty side.
Quote:nld
Were you telling me the other day that of our 12 yellows a total of six have been given to front row players?
That's right - one each to Pittman, Tideswell, Roan and French, and two for Bateman. Plus, of course, now three penalty tries conceded - maybe Kelvin & Lyn are right, there is a conspiracy theory after all!
Replacements: 16. Nathan Morris, 17. Billy Moss, 18. Gary Johnson, 19. Ben Russell, 20. Jack Moates, 21. Will Hurrell, 22. Edd Thrower.
* Denotes full international
Unavailable for selection: Gerard Mullen, Paul Mackey, Seb Jewell, Simon Whatling, Ben Stevenson, Vili Ma’asi, Dan George, Greg Bateman, James Tideswell, Adam Brown, Jon Mills, Ed Siggery and Kieran Low.
Looking guests to seeing Purdy and Corker paired up again.
15 Tom Foden, 14 Peter Homan, 13 Dave McCall, 12 Pale Nonu
11 Shane Monahan, 10 Garry Law, 9 Jimmy Williams
1 Jamie Kilbane, 2 Ted Stagg, 3 Rob O’Donnell, 4 Barney Maddison 5 Sam Dickinson (Capt.), 6 Carl Kirwan, 7 Sean Dougall, 8 Robin Copeland.
Replacements:
16 Dan Baines, 17 Shane Cahill, 18 Ben Harris, 19 Adrian Griffiths 20 Elliot Brierley 21 Matt Rhodes, 22 Cliffie Hodgson.
Quote:paddytaf
Well done again Mark W-J. As always a first class preview.
This.
Good luck at Roth - having seen the Moseley game, it's going to need a big step up.
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2012:01:08:20:53:04 by paddytaf.
Quote:DanFW3
A surprising absence of comments on a win, compared to the number when we lose. So congratulations to all in the team for this win which was much more impressive. And it wasn't just in the second half - right from the off we had Rotherham on their back feet even if the half time score line didn't reflect this. It was a carefully disciplined performance too, with more conscious determination not to be penalised for front row or off side offences, even if some awards for such did get given. And for those who snipe at the Lewis brothers, I thought that they - as well as Hudson and Joe - had a good day and impressed.
I'm very happy with our win, any and all of our wins.
The trouble is, our table position belies our current playing.
If we beat Bristol on Saturday ( which we might well have done attheir place earlier in the season ) then we are right back in the running. Its been a very inconsisent but very close season... just look at the Pirates position !
The attitude of the players had seen a complete turn-around (especially in the second half) and unlike the Moseley and Esher games they really looked as if they wanted to win. Conditions were difficult with a very strong wind blowimg towards the club house but the team played accordingly. Discipline was much better and we had the vast majority of possession and territory in the second half. Hopefully this change in approach will continue on Saturday.