London Welsh v Bristol Preview
By Mark W-J
January 12 2012
Only four Championship clubs remain unbeaten in 2012, and two of them come face-to-face at ODP on Saturday as LondonWelsh entertain Bristol (kick-off 2pm). Our visitors are the only team to be mathematically certain of their place in the promotion play-offs, and their form over the Christmas period means that they are widely tipped to win promotion back to the Premiership at the end of May.
Liam Middleton’s team are very much the form side in the Championship, having won their last seven matches, although they’ve picked-up only two try-bonus points in nine games since their last-gasp 35-33 over the Exiles at the Memorial Stadium on 21st October. The week after our last meeting they were humbled 44-6 at Rotherham, and seven days later suffered a 33-27 defeat at Moseley, an 80th minute try from Jack Tovey - our nemesis a fortnight previously - securing the losing bonus point. But while many predicted the beginning of the end of Bristol’s revival, the club has rebuilt steadily, if not spectacularly. Last Sunday against Esher they managed only three tries in a 27-7 - although who are we to criticise a failure to secure a try-bonus against the division’s bottom club? On the other hand, we at least restored some pride with a win at Rotherham last Saturday, which compares favourably with Bristol’s experience at Clifton Lane.
Bristol travel up the M4 with an eleven point lead over Bedford and Welsh, with Pirates just a point further back completing the top four. While the rest of the clubs in the top eight have been taking points from one another, they’ve kept on eeking out the wins, including victories over Bedford, Nottingham and Leeds in December alone. Carnegie (as the club formerly known as Tykes are now branded) are up to fifth in the table, and have more wins (eleven) than any club other than Bristol (fourteen). Since losing four of their opening five games they’ve won ten, drawn one and lost just the once - five weeks ago at Bristol, 33-19 - but they’ve earned just two try-bonus points and one losing bonus and still have a negative points difference, as their margin of victory has only twice been in double-figures. Leeds visit ODP on the final weekend of the regular season for what could be a straight shootout for a top four place.
Last season was a disaster for Bristol, with big budget cuts following their failure to negotiate the inaugural promotion play-off playing a big part. Seven wins and a draw for 22 fixtures saw them sneak into the top eight, but they seemed to have expended all their efforts in dragging themselves away from the relegation pack. Five defeats - including back-to-back drubbings by the Welsh and a club record 81-13 annihilation at Worcester - saw them finish bottom of Pool A, although they surprised favourites Bedford in the final of the British & Irish Cup, a 17-14 victory providing departing coach and club legend Paul Hull with a fitting send-off. They strengthened their squad over the summer with the signing of two of the Championship’s unsung heroes from Doncaster: fly-half Tristan Roberts was the division’s third-highest scorer last season with 309, and has kicked another 184 so far this term, while winger Matt Williams was fourth in the try-scoring tables with 16, one more than both Josh Drauniniu and Edd Thrower. Despite playing for the full 80 minutes in each of Bristol’s first six matches, Williams appears to be out of favour with the coaching staff, and hasn’t appeared in the Championship since a brief 15-minute cameo off the bench at Moseley on Bonfire Night. Part of the reason for his absence could well be the form of two young wingers, George Watkins and the aforementioned Jack Tovey, both of whom have celebrated their 21st birthday since the start of this season and who have scored fifteen tries between them, including three of the club’s four tries against Welsh in October.
Saturday’s game pits the league’s two meanest defences against one another, both in terms of points (Bristol 303, Welsh 313) and tries (Bristol 27, Welsh 28) conceded. In attack we’re both some way behind Bedford and Pirates, who have 60 tries each, while Welsh are one of only two clubs to have both scored more tries away than at home (27 v 22) and conceded more in front of our own supporters than on our travels (17 v 11). As those stats would suggest, our form at ODP is decidedly patchy - four wins, two draws and two defeats - whereas Bristol are the only club with a 100% home record; on the road, however, we share the best record in the league with six wins each from nine games. Bristol have conceded just nine tries in those nine away fixtures, although their line has not been breached in six of them, whereas the last time we kept our line intact at home was in the 54-9 play-off win over the same opposition last March.
With just five rounds of fixtures remaining in the regular season Bristol hold an eleven point advantage over their nearest rivals while only nine points cover the next seven clubs. The top eight and bottom four have been looking fairly cut-and-dried for some time now, and even allowing for some decent wins for Moseley and London Scottish it looks like time is running out for them to bridge that gap. Welsh still have to play four of the top eight, including three of the other four teams in the top five, and it seems likely that as a result of our shocking form over Christmas we will either need to produce hitherto unseen feats of magnificence or be reliant upon others to do us a favour. If it’s to be the former then a convincing win over the leaders would put the fear of God into the rest of the Championship clubs at just the right time. So why does it feel like it’s going to be the latter?
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Probably, alas, not for our match at ODP, but there will come a moment, unless their coach believes - foolishly, in my opinion, though I see the case - in keeping all the guys playing so as not to lose momentum.
As to the sense of foreboding, I hope you are wrong. Bristol will surely come out looking for a win, as will Welsh, but it's our ground, we know the wind and all might come together (though loose open play may not be the order of the day). Let's hope so.
Bristol certainly are on a roll, and this is exactly the sort of match we need to test our title aspirations (I can't go as far as say promotion...)
And with Bristol getting 6000+ for some recent matches, it suggests that we need to get into our seats/duckboard positions early to get a guaranteed view of the action! Surely this will be a 2500 crowd at least!
"Please could you put on Mark WJ's thread for Saturday that there are no tubes between West Kensington & Richmond and no London overground trains between Willesden Junction & Richmond but you can get to ODP by getting the Clapham Junction London Overground train and then a South West train from there to Richmond. (The fastest is to Wokingham (no trains from Wokingham to Reading this weekend)"
For Bristolians arriving by train, Bakerloo Line to Waterloo then any train to Richmond, followed by a scenic walk past several pubs - best just to pass them by on the way to the ground - to Old Deer Park.
15. Alex Davies, 14. Liam Gibson, 13. Hudson Tonga’uiha*, 12. Guy Armitage, 11. Joe Ajuwa, 10. Gordon Ross ©*, 9. Rob Lewis, 1. Max Lahiff, 2. Saul Nelson, 3. Leo Halavatu, 4. Matt Corker, 5. Martin Purdy, 6. Lee Beach, 7. Mike Denbee, 8. Ed Jackson.
Replacements: 16. Vili Ma’asi*, 17. Tom French, 18. Adam Brown, 19. Kieran Low, 20. Jack Moates, 21. Will Hurrell, 22. Edd Thrower.
* Denotes full international
Unavailable for selection: Paul Mackey, Seb Jewell, Simon Whatling, Ben Stevenson, Dan George, Greg Bateman, James Tideswell, Jon Mills and Ed Siggery.
Bristol:
Sean Marsden; Jack Tovey, Fautua Otto, Junior Fatialofa, Jon Goodridge; Matty James, Ruki Tipuna; Darren Crompton, Rhys Lawrence, Wayne Thompson, Mariano Sambucetti, Glen Townson, Josh Ovens, James Merriman (c), Marco Mama.
Replacements: Ross Johnston, Mark Irish, Roy Winters, Mitch Eadie, Tom Slater, Tristan Roberts, George Watkins.