London Welsh v Leeds Preview
By Mark W-J
February 23 2012
Two bonus-point wins in four days have seen London Welsh secure the final top-four place ahead of the Championship play-offs, alongside Bristol, Bedford and Cornish Pirates. On Saturday we welcome Leeds Carnegie to ODP (kick-off 12-30pm) for a game which seems to have been overlooked as a mere curtain-raiser to a potential Triple Crown decider for Wales at Twickenham later that afternoon.
Many followers of the Championship doubted whether Leeds would be able to bounce back from relegation at the first time of asking for a third time in six years following their demotion from the Premiership last May. Neil Back followed Andy Key out of the door just twelve months after proclaiming that finishing 11th in the 2009-10 season and seeing Worcester drop out of the top flight instead was his finest achievement in rugby - even greater than those events in Sydney in 2003 that the Welsh choose not to talk about. The new man in charge was Diccon Edwards, and his team started their first season in the redesigned Championship with three defeats in their opening five matches. The first of those, of course, was at the hands of the Welsh, who repeated their opening day win at Headingley in 2006-07 with a 26-13 win. Leeds’ sole win in September came at the expense of Bristol in week three, but that was followed by a 52-10 drubbing in Penzance a week later. Yet from early-October to mid-November they reeled-off seven consecutive victories, including an incredible 45-28 win at Bedford which featured a maiden try for former London Welsh scrum-half, Robbie Shaw. As recently as last weekend it looked like Saturday’s game could decide which of our clubs would take that final top-four spot, which gives a more favourable run of fixtures in the play-off pools, but three defeats in their last four fixtures - including reverses against two of the bottom four clubs, Plymouth and Esher - mean that they can no longer finish higher than 6th.
If Carnegie have an Achilles Heel this season it is the inability to score tries. They’ve collected just two try-bonus points all season and despite having won twelve and lost eight of their 21 games to-date they have a points difference of -45. They have crossed for 36 tries - one more than Esher and two ahead of Plymouth Albion, but 40% less than Welsh’s total of 60, and fewer than half the number scored by Bedford (76) and the Pirates (73). Fly-half Tom Bell has scored 215 points, which puts him 4th in the Championship overall, while Joe Ford - 21 year-old son of former England defence coach, Mike - has 82, including eight drop goals. Top try-scorer is 20 year-old centre Iain Thornley with six, followed - on four apiece - by ex-Newcastle and Bath winger Michael Stephenson and flanker Jacob Rowan, who first appeared at this level as a teenager with Otley in 2008-09. Their defensive record, however, compares favourably with the top sides - 45 tries conceded places them joint-fourth with Nottingham, but behind Bristol (32), Welsh (37) and Rotherham (44). Yet they have conceded an incredible 249 points from penalties at an average of 12 per game; Welsh have the second-worst indiscipline with 177 points conceded from the tee. Doncaster’s penalty try at ODP on Wednesday afternoon was the fifth that we’ve conceded this season, although Leeds and Esher have each had four such scores awarded against them, while we’re also joint-second on the naughty step with Plymouth having received 14 yellow cards, compared to Esher’s 15 and Carnegie’s 13.
While Bristol claimed top spot in the table in mid-January, Welsh can still finish anywhere between second and fourth. We currently trail Bedford and Pirates by two points, with all three clubs recording 13 wins from 21 games. The Blues have drawn once - at home to Doncaster - while we were held at ODP by Pirates and Esher; the Cornishmen have also shared the spoils at Moseley and Nottingham. But Bedford have claimed 15 bonus points, scoring four tries on twelve occasions, compared to 11 apiece for Pirates and Welsh (nine and eight try bonuses respectively). Bristol entertain Doncaster on Friday night with both clubs knowing that they are destined to finish the regular season in their current places - first and eighth respectively. On Saturday afternoon Moseley visit the Mennaye, where the Pirates need to gain more match points than Bedford if they are to claim the top seeding in Pool B. Meanwhile, the Blues welcome fifth-placed Nottingham to Goldington Road; the Green & Whites need a point to ensure that they remain in fifth ahead of Rotherham, over whom they currently hold a four point advantage as well as a points difference which is 95 points healthier. The Titans entertain London Scottish, looking for revenge for their opening day defeat at the Athletic Ground, and knowing that another defeat, coupled with a win for Leeds at ODP would see them drop to seventh at the expense of their fellow Yorkshiremen. In the bottom four, Esher’s recent upturn in fortune has seen them record three wins in their last six games after their draw at ODP on Boxing Day brought to an end a run of 14 consecutive league defeats. Back-to-back wins over London Scottish and Leeds have given them a timely confidence boost ahead of a final fixture at home to Plymouth Albion, who haven’t won away from the Brickfields since a Pool C play-off fixture against the Bees on 1st April last year. With each win in the regular season being converted to one point in the relegation play-offs, victory for Mike Schmid’s side would - barring any upsets elsewhere in the division on Saturday - put them just a point behind Plymouth and London Scottish and two adrift of Moseley.
The structure of the Championship season has its critics - in fact, it would be difficult to find anybody who believes that the current format is without fault. But despite Bristol, Bedford, Pirates and London Welsh threatening to break away at the top of the table since late September it has taken until the penultimate round of fixtures for the top four clubs to be finalised; and the seedings will not be confirmed until 5pm on Saturday. With no one club dominating proceedings we’ve had one of the most open seasons at this level in recent memory, with Welsh and Bristol losing to Moseley and Bedford and Pirates being defeated at Doncaster. We may point to our poor form over Christmas - only three points taken from home games with Esher and Moseley - and wonder how close we could have been to the top spot had we earned bonus-point wins in those two fixtures, but in our hearts we know that those points would likely have been lost elsewhere: at Rotherham or London Scottish, perhaps. But ten points in four days this week, with judicious rotation of the playing squad, suggest that we could be coming into form as things start to get interesting. What odds for promotion AND a Grand Slam?
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Quote:Verd
Excellent preview as usual Bruce.
Of all the people to be mistaken for...
Must be time for a hair transplant!Quote:Verd
Excellent preview as usual Bruce. If we are successful in the playoffs are we eligible/approved for promotion?
Under the current rules the answer appears to be no. Virtually no information has been released by the club (and certainly nothing directly to the membership) but the best clue seems to be from the article in the Yorkshire Post that was put on this forum a couple of months ago. The relevant section is:
The Exiles have been in exploratory discussions to relax the March 31 deadline for fear that it can lead to financial ruin for clubs chasing the dream.
Welsh chief executive John Taylor said: “What we have done is inform the RFU we are working on a plan that we hope by March 31 will satisfy their minimal requirement and that we do want to be considered for promotion.”
My take on it is that LW are asking the RFU to ignore the current application process and therefore presume that the club has neither formally applied for promotion nor undertaken any aspect of the audit process.
If LW win the play offs then the three months between the end of this season and the start of next would be used to persuade the RFU to allow promotion, recruit a squad, move to a stadium (or get planning and build a modular stadium if another article is to be believed), find another 6,000 supporters and recruit the necessary office staff.
I'd say that this is almost impossible and probably suicidal. It took Exeter 10 years to achieve all this.
London Welsh: 15. Seb Jewell, 14. Will Hurrell, 13. Paul Mackey, 12. Simon Whatling, 11. Ashley Smith, 10. Alex Davies, 9. Jack Moates, 1. Tom French, 2. Saul Nelson, 3. Billy Moss, 4. Matt Corker, 5. Mike Powell, 6. Lee Beach, 7. Michael Hills, 8. Ben Russell.
Replacements: 16. Dan George, 17. Greg Bateman, 18. Adam Brown, 19. Ed Jackson, 20. Rob Lewis, 21. Gordon Ross*, 22. James Lewis.
* Denotes full international
1. Sam Lockwood 2. Andy Titterrell 3. Halani Aulika 4. Jon Pendlebury
5. Dan Hemingway 6. Ed Williamson 7. Jacob Rowan 8. Ryan Burrows
9. Will Cliff 10. Joe Ford 11. Peter Lucock 12. Scott Barrow
13. Iain Thornley 14. Michael Stephenson 15. Stevie McColl
Replacemnets
16. Phil Nilsen 17. Gareth Denman 18. Mo Mustafa 19. Richard Beck
20. Alex Rieder 21. Robbie Shaw 22. Jordan Davies
I wonder whether we should not rethink the relationship between loyal supporters who actually watch the match and the clubhouse. It rather got up my nose not to have any chance of a seat in the Pagoda room even with a back to the screen having watched the match when the baggsy-a-seat people had collared the lot. So I watched from the comfort of my home.
As to the match, it seemed to be going well then fell apart. Hard to say why but we seemed decidedly less comfortable on the back foot than going forward, and Leeds spotted this. Sub bench with 3 backs out of 7 didn't bode well. I would have liked to see how Powell and Corker would have improved things. Martin Purdy seems very at home as a flanker and that should continue. Where was Hudson - sorely missed? Ah well, no ill consequences and possibly all part of a dastardly plot to ensure we stayed in 4th. And we did wrap up the Triple Crown thanks to the marmite sarnies we fed Adam Jones earlier in the week.
Ok, so there are injuries with Powell, Corker and Hudson apparently added to that list. Jewell and Jackson were also late withdrawals (due to illness) but it really wasn't the performance we should be seeing from a team claiming ambitions of promotion. Some new ideas needed over the next fortnight otherwise the play-offs are going to be tough.
How people can find their way to ODP to watch the TV and not watch a live game before is one that disappoints me greatly.
I saw your efforts Mr FW3 to get a chair but I suspect many had gone while our game was still on. I didnt see many familiar faces in the Pagoda room and feel a balance could be struck by the club to accommodate members as well as biennial visitor. Had a fairly unpleaant group by me who were old enough to know better and adding to that for a significant minority to cheer when Farrell pulled up, these are not the 'supporters' I am used to seeing rugby with. I will leave it there.
As for the game I should be talking about here i am not sure our starting half back pairing is the one that gets the best from our backline - Whatling and Mackey are a great centre pairing and both are on form.
Biggest concern defensively was our ability to defend against quick ball. i wont get into player bashing but we have one very weak player in that regard and Leeds were able to target that while other players sought to cover that defensive frailty.
Two confusing decisions for me. We won a penalty kicked for the corner. Then won another penalty from the next play and took the 3 points.
Also changing LH and TH when a scrum had been called. Players came on cold, penalty awarded to Leeds and a couple of plays later a try was scored.
Anyway I have gone on long enough here,