Doncaster v London Welsh - Play-off Preview

By Mark W-J
March 28 2012

The fourth weekend of matches in the Championship play-offs could determine three of the semi-finalists with two rounds of fixtures still to play. Wins for Bristol and Bedford at home to Nottingham and Leeds respectively would see both sides through to the knockout stages, while a Welsh win at Doncaster would - coupled with defeat for Nottingham on Friday - see us join them in the last four.

Not that the London Welsh supporters will be getting too far ahead of themselves after last weekend, of course. The general feeling before kick-off - although everyone was very careful not to voice such opinions too loudly for fear of tempting fate - was that Welsh should be too strong for a Doncaster side which had scored just six points and conceded 95 in their opening two fixtures. Yet the Knights played to the conditions, their open, running game helped by the home team’s questionable tactics of kicking away possession and opting not to make too many tackles in the unseasonably warm conditions. There was no question that we were fortunate to be only one score adrift at the interval, and while two quick tries in the latter stages made the game safe - just as they had against Nottingham a fortnight earlier - Donny earned a deserved bonus point when they crossed for a fourth try with the final play. That was the first try-bonus they’ve collected on their travels since winning 29-20 at Esher on 29^th October, although at that stage they’d scored four tries in three of their four away fixtures, having also done so at Penzance and Leeds. Saturday’s defeat, however, was their seventh on the bounce, as they finished the regular season with reverses against all three of their Pool A rivals as well as Yorkshire neighbours, Rotherham.

Doncaster qualified for the promotion play-offs by finishing the regular season in 8^th place; they were the only one of the top eight sides to win fewer than 50% of their matches, but still finished 16 points clear of 9^th-placed London Scottish yet only 17 adrift of the Welsh in 4^th spot. There’s a theory that sometimes the lower-ranked teams in Pools A&B have expended so much effort in their attempts to avoid the bottom four that they have nothing left in the tank for the play-offs, and there was a feeling during our midweek win over the Knights at the end of the regular campaign that the visiting players were struggling to compete in the final quarter. That may well have been due to the ridiculous rescheduling which saw them play at home to Rotherham on the Sunday, at Welsh on Wednesday afternoon, and at Bristol on the Friday night, but a similar observation was made on Saturday, particularly when we scored our two tries to effectively seal the victory. Donny’s fourth try, from the final play, however, showed that they weren’t completely out on their feet, and Welsh will need to be aware that, while they would need to win all three of their remaining fixtures and need other results to go their way to qualify for the knockout stages, they will not lie down until all hope is lost.

Doncaster winger Dougie Flockhart scored two tries and two of four conversion attempts last weekend to move on to 94 points for the season, just two behind David McIlwaine, a summer signing from Ulster who has been out injured since January. Over the last couple of seasons they’ve lost a significant number of established Championship players, including Hudson Tonga’uiha and Ed Jackson, arguably our two standout performers this year, as well as Matty Williams and Tristan Roberts (Bristol), Anthony Carter and Bevon Armitage (Moseley), Glen Townson and Dan Frazier (Newcastle), Stevie MacColl (Leeds) and Lewis Thiede (Wasps); the fact that Townson and Thiede have been loaned out to Championship rivals Bristol and London Scottish respectively undoubtedly makes their departures even harder to bear. Furthermore, the squad were hit by massive budget cuts last summer which certainly contributed to the decimation of the squad but also forced coach Brett Davey to rebuild with one eye on youth and potential. He’s performed admirably in that regard, replicating the success of Andre Bester at nearby Rotherham in unearthing previously unheralded players, particularly from Ireland, with full-back McIlwaine being joined by former Leinster winger Michael Keating who, with nine tries, is equal top scorer with Flockhart.

Saturday’s win was our eighth successive win over Doncaster, but overall we’ve won ten and drawn two of the 17 games since our first meeting in October 2005. In his programme notes last weekend Lyn referred to the fact that we are prone to what he called ‘performances of sheer complacency’, citing the festive horror shows against Esher and Moseley. The supporters are well aware of these apparent shortcomings, and while four points for the win have put us on the brink of qualification for the semi-finals for a third consecutive season, the defensive lapses which allowed a team who had scored only two penalties in their last two games to cross for three tries in the opening 40 minutes are enough to ensure that we do not simply expect to extend that sequence of results this weekend. Defeat at Castle Park would leave us needing to beat either Bristol or Nottingham - or possibly both, depending on other results involving those clubs- to ensure our safe passage to the last four, and while victory on Saturday might not in itself be enough to guarantee progress it would put us in a very strong position with just two games left to play.

Posted by: The Dragon\'s Den (IP Logged)

Date: 28/03/2012 21:28

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