Final Day Permutations
By Mark H
April 26 2005
So now we know. 126 games gone, 6 to go, and every team has got something to play for. Super Saturday? Not quite. But don’t you think that if it had been football every match would be shown in some way, rather than the two that Sky are intending?
Anyway, here’s the permutations, starting with the easiest!
Championship Final
Leicester play Wasps at Welford Road knowing whoever gets more match points goes to Twickenham for the final on 14 May, with the losers getting a home semi-final a week on Saturday to try and join them. If match points are the same, Wasps go through as a result of having one more win.
(Note - all of the positions are decided on number of points, then wins, then points difference, then points scored. It gets a bit complicated from now on!)
Championship Play-offs
Leicester or Wasps will meet one of Bath, Sale or Saracens in the semi-final. Five points for Bath at home to Leeds and they’re there. 4 points will mean that Sale will need to get all five at Harlequins and ensure that Bath don’t win by 26 points more than them in getting those 4 points (very unlikely, I know, but…).
If Bath lose, a Sale win puts them in.
If Bath and Sale lose, then Saracens can squeak in with a win at Gloucester. As their points difference (-45) is vastly inferior to Bath (+45) and Sale (+70), they must hope that Bath don’t get a point if they get the maximum at Kingsholm. Four points for Sarries, and it won’t be enough for Steve Diamond‘s mob.
Heineken Cup Qualification
This next, before we start talking Wildcard. England gets six places next season; Leicester and Wasps are there, and will be joined by the third placed side for definite, AND the fourth placed team IF Sale finish no worse than fourth.
If Sale do finish in that top four, then the Wildcard will be 5v8 and 6v7 next weekend, but if they finish in fifth, as they can still qualify by winning the Parker Pen Challenge Cup, the Wildcard become 4v7 and 5v6.
An added complication is the Leeds situation. If they avoid the bottom spot, they are also in the Heineken Cup having won the Powergen Cup ten days ago. If they finish bottom and Bristol’s promotion is approved (and a minor rant here, it SHOULDN’T need to be approved - the best team should go up, no questions asked), then the fifth placed side may also qualify automatically.
Indeed, if Bristol’s promotion is confirmed by the end of this week AND Leeds finish bottom, then the Wildcard will be 6v9 and 7v8, but no doubt the RFU will sit on that for another week or so to infuriate not just Bris but whoever finished ninth as well.
Wildcard
The unlucky ones of Bath, Sale and Saracens are guaranteed at least a Wildcard spot. Gloucester and Newcastle will join them with wins. A Newcastle loss at home to London Irish will let all of the group behind them, except Harlequins, be in with a chance. All five clubs go into Saturday with the only priority being a Premiership club next season.
Falcons will go above Gloucester with a five point win if Glaws only get a point, or with a win if the Cherry and Whites go pointless. Points difference wise, Falcons are 49 points worse off than Glaws, so a match points difference of 3 will almost certainly mean that Glaws will take the higher seeding.
The Wildcard matches are on Friday 6 May at 7.45pm, and on Sunday 8 May at 3.15pm. Owing to Watford’s footballing commitments, if Saracens get a home Wildcard match, it will be the Friday night game. No other club has yet ventured a date.
Relegation
Complicated. More than ever! As it stands:-
|
Points |
Wins |
Points Difference |
Points Scored | |
|
London Irish |
39 |
8 |
-36 |
362 |
|
Leeds |
39 |
8 |
-55 |
370 |
|
Northampton |
39 |
8 |
-61 |
391 |
|
Worcester |
38 |
8 |
-130 |
344 |
|
Harlequins |
37 |
6 |
-42 |
394 |
A win for any of the five clubs, and they’re safe. A defeat, and they’re in serious trouble. Things to remember are that if Quins have the same number of points as any other club, they’re behind on number of wins. Worcester entertain Northampton, so in theory, one of those teams will lose. Leeds and Quins will both have to play a second game in four days after that classic clash tonight. It’s a seat of the pants day. It’s also so complicated, that I’m not going to explain it, as the permutations are endless.
The full fixture list is:-
Leicester v Wasps
Bath v Leeds
Harlequins v Sale
Gloucester v Saracens
Newcastle v London Irish
Worcester v Northampton
If I were a betting man, I’d say that Leicester will get to the final, Bath will go to Wasps, Falcons will entertain Gloucester, Saracens will take on Northampton, and Harlequins will take the longest drop as a result of that inability to win outside international weekends.
Or are the last two clubs named just wishful thinking by me?