ECC - Never Predict...


By Mark H
January 11 2006

As we head back to European action, the first of two previews this week. Leipy’s match preview will be here tomorrow, but we start with Mark looking back at how big a fool he made of himself when he picked the quarter-finalists.

Back in October I did a preview of the European Challenge Cup for this season, and (probably foolishly) made a few predictions as to how I thought things would pan out.

 

With just two rounds to go of the group stages, it’s time for a look back to see how accurate (or in the case of Pool Two, how hopelessly inaccurate) I was.

 

Pool 1 – Bristol, Narbonne, Northampton, Viadana (seeds)

 

I said “In theory, with the style of rugby they’re playing at the moment, Northampton should win this pool by a distance”, and “If Saints win in France in round four, then they should win the group with six out of six and get a top two seeding.”

 

Ummm…well, the six wins out of six might have happened were it not for Bristol battering the Saints for 65 minutes at the Memorial Ground back in October.  As it stands now, Bristol lead the pool by a point from Saints, and travel to Franklin’s Gardens on Saturday afternoon in the standout game this weekend.  Two weeks ago in the Premiership, Bris held the lead for much of the game at FG before prop Chris Budgen scored what turned out to be a match winning try with less that five minutes to go.

 

As it’s unclear what sort of team Bris will put out – the weekend’s results have dragged them back into the relegation huddle to a certain extent – the match is a very difficult one to call.  Whoever wins will win the pool, that’s a fact, as the final games for each side are ones that they should win; Bris at home to a Narbonne side not setting sights on survival in Top 14, and Saints travelling to Viadana.  Whoever wins – and I am certain it’ll go down to the final minutes again – it’ll only be good enough for at best third seeding, but probably fourth, and the prospect – should they get there – of a semi-final at Kingsholm.  Ouch.

 

Pool 2 – Agen (seeds), London Irish, Overmach Parma, Section Paloise

 

I said “…whatever happens, Irish have to win at least one game in France if they are to progress, and I’m not overly convinced they can do that…”, and “Agen…will get to the semi-finals here at least.”

 

Wrong, wrong, wrong.  Irish have not only won one game in France, they’ve won both, including an incredible turnaround in Agen when they were 24-15 down with two minutes of normal time to go, but won 32-24.  As such, they deserve what they’re probably going to get, which should be the second seeding going into the knockout stages, with a trip to Parma and a home game against Pau completing their fixtures.  I can see them getting a maximum ten points from those two games, which will mean that Falcons need to win both of our remaining games and get a bonus point to pip them. 

 

On Falcons side is that Irish kick off three and a half hours before Falcons do in round six, so the task will be known in advance of kick off.  That said, Brive can still qualify as a runner up, whilst Agen are all but out.  Irish, therefore, have the second seeding to lose.

 

Pool 3 – Bayonne, Bucuresti, Gloucester (seeds), Toulon

 

I said “Gloucester should walk the group and go into the knockout as top seeds…” – well, at least I got something right!  Four wins and 39 tries so far, with a trip to Bucharest and a home game against Bayonne to come.  Unlikely as it may sound though, Bayonne can still win the pool, but it will require five points from their home game against Toulon on Friday night and then a win at Kingsholm.  Indeed, even six points from their two games may be enough to sneak them through as runner up with 21 points, and their reward would be…you’ve guessed it, a trip to Kingsholm!

 

Just to prove that I didn’t call this pool completely correctly, I also said “I fancy them (Toulon) as outsiders to make the quarter-finals as a best runner up.”  Their one points scoring foray so far was a 20-16 win in Bucharest, in a game that by all reports the Romanians were unfortunate not to win.

 

Pool 5 – Amatori Catania, Connacht (seeds), Montpellier, Worcester

 

I said “If they want to, the Warriors can come through this pool, possibly even as winners…” – well, with two games to go, they lead Connacht by one point and (which may be even more important with the role of bonus points) have a better record against the Irishmen over the two matches.  Should the teams be level at the end of the pool, Worcester will come top by the virtue of their 30-20 win at Sixways back on 10th December.  Connacht’s path looks slightly easier, with a home game against Montpellier and a trip to Catania, whilst the Warriors have to go to France in the last match – albeit against a Montpellier side just one place above the relegation line, and who lost in Catania last time out.

 

I think Worcester will belie my original prediction and win the pool – just – but they need to win both matches to do so.  The pool winners here should come out as fifth seeds and have an away quarter final, whilst the runners up should be the highest placed runners up and will therefore travel to the third seeds.  This is a pool to watch carefully if you’re a Falcon, I think.

 

Pool 4 – Borders (seeds), Brive, L’Aquila, Newcastle

 

Show off time now.  I said “Whisper it quietly, but I fancy Borders to beat Brive at Netherdale in round three…” – Borders 25 Brive 22.  I also said “…the trip to Kingston Park, as a win on day one will instantly make the winners favourites to go through the pool…” – Falcons 51 Brive 19.  It now all rests on these last two pool games.  Falcons should beat Borders, but realistically require a bonus point as well to send them on the trip to France with 24 points.  25 points will guarantee at least third seeding, 28 – by virtue of Falcons having scored 17 more tries than London Irish – should get at least second seeding.  To get to 28 points, Falcons need to win in France.  To get to 29 – and have a hope of the top seeding – there needs to be a bonus point as well. 

 

Brive, however, are unbeaten in their nine home games this season, including a win over Toulouse.  A lot will depend on how much emphasis Brive are putting on this tournament now; they are ninth in Top 14, with no danger of going down, but no realistic chance of qualifying for the Heineken Cup through their league position.  They may consider this their one chance of getting to the top table next season, and with the likely reward for two wins being a trip either back to Kingston Park or to the Madejski for the quarter-final, they may fancy their chances.  It’s important to remember that if the seventh seeds (which is where I fancy Brive may end up) win their away quarter-final, they will get a home semi-final against the winners of 3rd versus 6th.  It may be in Falcons’ interests further down the line to knock Brive out a week on Saturday…

 

So what did I predict for the quarter-finals originally?  Well…

 

(1)   Gloucester v Toulon (8)

(2)   Northampton v Worcester or Montpellier (7)

(3)   Agen v Brive (6)

(4)   Newcastle v Connacht (5)

 

Now, and with the huge benefit of hindsight, I see the line-up as

 

(1)   Gloucester v Bristol or Northampton (8)

(2)   London Irish v Brive (7)

(3)   Newcastle v Connacht (6)

(4)   Bristol or Northampton v Worcester (5)

 

For the Falcons therefore, should the potential quarter-final of Connacht be overcome, then it would mean a trip to Reading or back to France against a team that in my model, we would have already lost against.  How important does that second seeding look now?

 

(And finally, I also predicted that Northampton would be one of the finalists.  I was hoping to keep that quiet, but I guarantee that someone would call me on it!)