Conor's Premiership Roadmap 2012/13
By poorfour
September 20 2012
So the new season is underway, but it doesn’t feel complete without a Premiership Roadmap by which we can measure our progress. I can’t hope to match Quaking Quin’s erudition on the subject, but by shamelessly studying the tables he’s done in previous years I’ve come up with something that feels about right and is at least a starting point for debate.
You know the drill by now, but just in case, here’s how it works. While we would all like to see Quins beat all comers, home and away, the reality is that no team can realistically maintain that level of performance over the whole season. In practice, a DoR has to target certain games in terms of intensity of preparation and squad selection. Trying to target every game, fielding your first team players when they’re only 95%, is a recipe for injury, burnout and long term problems as the junior players don’t get the experience they will need to step up. So a canny DoR has the season mapped out. They will have certain games on the “must win” list, others (typically away games against the Top 6) they know they can afford to lose. They will think of the season in blocks of games, and will adjust their strategy based on how each block has gone.
And as we know, Quins have one of the canniest DoRs around. With hindsight, it seems pretty clear that Conor played the roadmap like a maestro last season. Having overseen an opening 10 games that must have exceeded his wildest expectations (if not his KPIs for the team), I am pretty sure that he managed the rest of the season to deliver his team into the playoffs in the best shape possible. The most obvious examples were the Amlin QF against Toulon, where he didn’t risk anyone who was less than 100%, including NEv and Robshaw, and the home defeat to Tigers, where he was all smiles in the interview room, despite the failure to secure even a bonus point.
But Quins arrived at the final able to field their first-choice starting XV for the first and only time that season, and a bench where 6 of the players had seen regular first team action. Compare and contrast with Leicester who, after a dire start to the season, had had to target pretty much every game from the end of the RWC onwards. The freshness of the Quins squad was typified for me by the final scrum, where Marler and JJ saw off Tigers’ second complete international class front row of the day.
One of the things that surprised me in preparing the table is how little things change from year to year. The points required for the key positions were slightly lower than normal, but not so much as to change the targets for this year. 40 points would have seen you safe (and was chosen to be higher than Quins’ total of 38 in 2005, the highest points total by a relegated team), 54 would have been enough for 6th (but not 5th), 62 would have been enough for 4th and 76 was one more than Quins’ 1st place total.
The teams you have to beat remain remarkably consistent, too. Obviously, London Welsh have replaced Newcastle this year, and Wasps and Irish look slightly softer targets than in years past, but the groups of teams you have to beat to achieve each step on the table remain much the same. The one thing that has changed is Quins’ own position. My assumption for the start of the season was that, as reigning champions, other DoRs would target us as the team to beat, but now I am not so sure. DoRs accept that they will lose some games, and target the ones that they are best placed to win. For instance, even to top the table we would only have to take 14 points out of a possible 30 from last year’s other Top 4 teams. Players will target Quins, especially when we visit their grounds. But I am not sure that DoRs will choose to throw all their resources at Quins when there are other, more winnable games to target.
As the season develops, we shall see. The good news is that Quins are by my reckoning already 1 point ahead of the roadmap for first place. And while defeat at Welford Road will always be hard to swallow, the roadmap doesn’t require us to take anything from that visit. Far more important will be beating Saracens at the Stoop the week after.
Anyway, as I said at the top of the article, I’m open to suggestion as to how to improve the roadmap. Have I taken enough account of the International windows, when Quins will be without more players than usual? Have I allowed enough for our traditional January and February hibernation? Would Conor be more likely to target Sale away on 22 Feb than Tigers at home on 16th? Let me know what you think.
| Target Points | 11th | 6th | 4th | 1st | Actual | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Opponent | Where? | Points | Total | Points | Total | Points | Total | Points | Total | Points | Total |
| 01-Sep | Wasps | Away | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
| 07-Sep | London Welsh | Home | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 10 |
| 15-Sep | Sale Sharks | Home | 4 | 9 | 4 | 10 | 5 | 11 | 5 | 14 | 5 | 15 |
| 22-Sep | Leicester Tigers | Away | 0 | 9 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 14 | ||
| 30-Sep | Saracens | Home | 0 | 9 | 1 | 11 | 4 | 15 | 4 | 18 | ||
| 06-Oct | Exeter Chiefs | Away | 1 | 10 | 1 | 12 | 1 | 16 | 1 | 19 | ||
| 28-Oct | London Irish | Away | 1 | 11 | 1 | 13 | 4 | 20 | 4 | 23 | ||
| 03-Nov | Gloucester | Home | 1 | 12 | 4 | 17 | 4 | 24 | 4 | 27 | ||
| 24-Nov | Bath | Away | 1 | 13 | 1 | 18 | 1 | 25 | 1 | 28 | ||
| 30-Nov | Worcester | Home | 4 | 17 | 5 | 23 | 5 | 30 | 5 | 33 | ||
| 22-Dec | Northampton Saints | Away | 0 | 17 | 0 | 23 | 0 | 30 | 1 | 34 | ||
| 29-Dec | London Irish | Home | 4 | 21 | 5 | 28 | 5 | 35 | 5 | 38 | ||
| 06-Jan | London Welsh | Away | 4 | 25 | 4 | 32 | 4 | 39 | 5 | 43 | ||
| 09-Feb | Wasps | Home | 4 | 29 | 4 | 36 | 4 | 43 | 5 | 48 | ||
| 16-Feb | Leicester Tigers | Home | 0 | 29 | 0 | 36 | 0 | 43 | 4 | 52 | ||
| 22-Feb | Sale Sharks | Away | 1 | 30 | 1 | 37 | 1 | 44 | 1 | 53 | ||
| 02-Mar | Exeter Chiefs | Home | 4 | 34 | 4 | 41 | 5 | 49 | 5 | 58 | ||
| 24-Mar | Saracens | Away | 0 | 34 | 0 | 41 | 0 | 49 | 1 | 59 | ||
| 30-Mar | Gloucester | Away | 0 | 34 | 1 | 42 | 1 | 50 | 4 | 63 | ||
| 13-Apr | Bath | Home | 4 | 38 | 4 | 46 | 4 | 54 | 4 | 67 | ||
| 20-Apr | Worcester | Away | 1 | 39 | 4 | 50 | 4 | 58 | 5 | 72 | ||
| 04-May | Northampton Saints | Home | 1 | 40 | 4 | 54 | 4 | 62 | 4 | 76 | ||
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I'm hoping that Quins may turnover Exeter at Sandy Park this year but it will be a tight call. I agree that a losing bonus at the Rec is on the cards as it falls within the AIs. If we were at full strength, I'd expect Conor to target that as a must win, it will certainly be good experience for Lambert, Chisholm, Buchanan et al.
The only slight changes I would make is that I think at the beginning of the season, we might have expected a bonus point win over LI at BG5 as more likely that with Sale at home. Also maybe a normal win against Exeter away would be more likely than a bonus point win at home during the six nations.
I think we may well be up 2 points already!
I have one comment. For the London Irish home game, you have us down to need 5 points to finish 6th and 4th, but only 4 points to finish 1st. I suspect this may be an error, or am I missing something?
Quote:The Quarter Supporter
Excellent!
I have one comment. For the London Irish home game, you have us down to need 5 points to finish 6th and 4th, but only 4 points to finish 1st. I suspect this may be an error, or am I missing something?
Yep - someone else spotted that and I have PM'd Prof to fix it. If you look at the totals, it should read 5 rather than 4, but otherwise everything kind of works.
I agree with QK that the team can go into every match with confidence of taking something from it. The real test is this weekend. I can't see Tigers being as subdued as they were against Sarries, especially not at Welford Road. A good showing is a strong message to the rest of the AP. A good shoe-ing would be, too, but not in such a good way.
Quote:Quinky Kin
Indeed, we could suffer a backlash from last Saturday's game
I'd be surprised if we didn't... but that doesn't mean that we can't handle it!
Nunquam Dormio
Next week will be interesting to see where we really are. 15 of our 20 points have come from (current) bottom 4 teams... Not played any of the (current) middle 4, so this should hopefully give a hint.
If only we could string 80 minutes together...
The Top 2 are both on 28 points and 24 is enough for Top 4 - but that doesn't tell the full story at this stage of the season.
What's remarkable is that there's a very clear Top v Bottom divide. Only one point separates 5th from 4th, and only 1 point separates the three teams scrapping for 6th. Matches between any teams in the Top 8 could drive big swings in the table. It looks like being one of the closest seasons for quite a while, and that Quins have been winning without playing well (and have put in two of their better performances against Leicester and - place kicking aside - Sarries) is relatively encouraging.
Below that there's a drop to 9th. Interestingly, the table suggests that while many pundits are still predicting the demise of London Welsh they are actually holding up pretty well. I would be happy to see them stay up, based on the level of ambition in their play.
That run of four wins to finish the season on top looks quite daunting. What do people think?
Either way, the next two games are very important. The Sarries game will be the first one in which both teams have their England (and other 6N) contingent back - it may come down to how well they can re-integrate the returning players, and how many walking wounded each team is carrying.
It's frustrating that we lost those 2 games against sarries and wasps. I know we've probably won games where we didn't necessarily deserve to, or didn't expect to, and other teams have lost games they should have won, but we really should have won both of those games which would have given up a bit more breathing room.