Tipsters Guide to the ZP -Week 4

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By WellSaint
September 20 2002

Not the best of weeks last week I have to say - the predictions on three of the games were correct, but unfortunately the other three games went against my predictions.

This means a 14.3 point loss on the recommended bets (and
add a further 5 points if you backed the horse!) But we are still in profit
over the season (albeit by 7 points or so.)

On to this week's games - please note I have no handicap lists to hand as
yet, and will post an update when the lists are available.

Friday: Leeds Tykes vs. Sale Sharks

The surprise package of the season so far come up against one of the more
unpredictable teams in the ZP. Both teams have beaten the PCP (maximum
respect due) and both by thirteen points (no consolation point for the
Posse, double maximum respect due!) This game is very hard to call - the
form lines are close - was the Sale performance at Gloucester a one-off?
Can Leeds continue their rapid progress? This game is definitely not a
betting proposition for me, but as you know, I never sit on the fence
(that's because I'd break it!) - and therefore my prediction is a narrow win
for Leeds, say three points.


Saturday: Gloucester vs. Bristol - live on Sty TV

Gloucester have now been promoted to favouritism for the title in some
bookmakers' lists - this game will give us a chance to see how well they've
progressed. Bristol are no back number, and although still winless, have
scored 28 points or more in all their games this season (and we all know who
restricted them to the 28....) That said I expect a Gloucester win at
Kingsholm, most probably by a double digit score in the region of ten to
twelve points.


Saturday: Saints vs. Bath

Saints come into this game in third place and face a Bath side who finally
realised the season had started at around 3.30 last Saturday afternoon
(around the time Wasps decided to do a passable imitation of waxwork figures
in defence.) Bath's injury list seems to be growing again, with South
Africa's finest, Mr Catt, now reportedly injured. With the squad list
looking thinner by the week, Mr Grewcock on an RFU sponsored break and the
Saints team at full strength, I confidently predict another double digit
victory at the Gardens this Saturday, say by 15 points.


Saturday: PCP vs. Newcastle Falcons

The good news for the PCP is they now have a song of their own; apparently
MeatLoaf is releasing one of his old tracks slightly renamed.... Yes, look
out for One out of three ain't bad at a record store near you soon!! I
would imagine that it would need renaming by 5.00 to Two out of Four Ain't
Bad, especially if Newcastle are as rudderless as they were against us. The
PCP may not be firing on all cylinders, but that shouldn't stop them posting
a convincing win - 15 points seems about right again.


Saturday: NEC Hardlywins vs. The Exiled Exiles

Harlequins are still looking for that elusive first win, whilst Irish downed
Saracens 32-10 at the Madstad last Sunday. I saw Quins play Gloucester in
the first week of the season, and thought they looked fair, if limited in
the way they play; but if Irish are back to anything like the form of last
season, I can only see one result, and that's Irish winning by around eight
points.


Sunday: High Wycombe Wasps vs. Saracens

Wasps managed to drag a draw out of the jaws of victory at the Rec last
Saturday; Saracens received a reality check at the Madstad where they were
beaten 32-10. I think that Wasps should win, but probably not by a great
margin, say five points.

FRIDAY UPDATE

Prices are now available from a selection of bookmakers (mostly net based) -
and I'm afraid that the handicaps are higher than I would have hoped.
However, there are possibilities.

Firstly, Saints are ten point favourites over Bath. This should be within
Saints compass and therefore I recommend a twenty-five point win single on
Saints - 10 to beat Bath at 5/6 (available from the Tote). Please note
other bookies have us as stronger favourites (up to 15 points) - so if you
find Ladbrokes or Hills have us as single digit favourites, fill your boots.

The handicaps on the games at Leeds, PCP and Wasps are too tight in my
opinion, and are given the swerve. I think the bookies may have overreacted
to the Gloucester-Sale game and given Gloucester a hefty handicap of 17
points. It is tempting to back Bristol to keep the winning margin below
this. The Tote have London Irish as three point favourites over Quins, and
Irish should cover that easily.
The weekend treble is therefore Saints -10, Bristol +17, Irish -3, all at
5/6 with the Tote in a five point treble.


WELLSAINT RECOMMENDS

Saints -10 vs. Bath - 25 pt win @ 5/6

Saints -10, Bristol +17, Irish -3 - 5 point treble @5/6 all three teams

30 pts staked

Good luck with your bets this weekend, and...

COME ON YOU SAINTS!!!

Wellsaint

PS See you all in Heroes on Saturday before the game.