News: Leicester Tigers vs Northampton Saints - Match Preview
By Ballagher
January 5 2011
In terms of the Aviva Premiership there are no bigger matches for Northampton Saints - away to their East Midlands rivals, Leicester Tigers. Should your appetite need further whetting, the home side sit top of the pile with the visitors just two points behind but with two games in hand. What more could you ask for? Ballagher looks ahead to an eagerly awaited contest...
LEICESTER TIGERS vs. NORTHAMPTON SAINTS
Saturday, 8th January 2011 - 5pm
A ROUNDABOUT IN LEICESTER
MATCH PREVIEW
According to the AA Milne character, what do Tiggers do best? Well actually it's Northampton Saints who will be hoping to bounce, and bounce right back to winning ways, when they face Leicester Tigers on Saturday.
As recent readers of the message board will know, I've only seen Saints play in person once so far this season and ... (well let's say no more). But most readers will have a better-informed opinion of what Saints are capable of and where they need to go next. So this preview, which is an unapologetically personal one, will focus more on the stuff that can be gleaned from elsewhere. For more insight into the current player form guide, you could do worse than look at the excellent preview already posted on the Tigers site.
Tigers and Saints. For me, this is the domestic rugby equivalent of the Ashes; but Saints are the (often inferior) England to Leicester's (usually dominant) Oz. And that's often been reflected in the reaction of the supporters. As some of you know, I live in bandit country so I come into contact with more than my fair share of their numerous followers. When Leicester win, whilst they will enjoy a bit of a gloat (all in good humour of course), it's not that big a deal for them. Whereas I've noticed that when Saints beat Tigers (especially on the very rare occasions it happens at Welford Road) we have been, in the past, in danger of seeing it as the be all and end all. I like to think this is not so much the case at the moment which, if true, is a sign of our growing maturity.
And if the local derby isn't enough to whet yours and the TV company's appetite, it's also 1st v 2nd in the premiership table. And not so much Tigers, but the Lions share of the England first XV will no doubt be on show at the weekend.
This season so far, Saints and Tigers have been the best teams in the competition. But whereas Saints have only lost once away and once at home (as well as two matches postponed), Leicester's form is far more pronounced. They have been less than their Tigerish-best on the road; winning only two of their six matches so far. But at home they have taken all before them. The fact that they have a 100% record should not surprise anyone (especially as they have yet to play Sarries or, well, us). But what is of concern is that they have been piling on the points. On four occasions - OK, so the opposition has been, respectively; Exeter, Leeds, Newcastle and Sale - but the points amassed have been 37, 48, 44 and 54. The only opponents who have restricted them at all (and gained a losing bonus point) were Bath (21-15; when for some reason they decided to play at the International Pool up the road in Loughborough) and Quins (18-13) when they won it with penalties*. Be in no doubt, this lot can play.
(* - Just dropped that in for those that wanted to see it.)
Over recent years, Saints have probably faired better (or perhaps that should be least worst) than most when visiting Welford Road. However, based on recent premiership encounters, another home win would be on the cards. Since our return to the top flight, the home team has dominated.
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Saints – Tigers |
Tigers - Saints |
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2008/09 |
17-13 |
29-19 |
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2009/10 |
19-3 |
29-15 |
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2010/11 |
27-19 |
|
If Tigers get 29 again, then we'll need to reproduce the Wasps away performance and we'll win with something to spare (37). I suspect you'd get good odds on the Saints' props repeating their first game of this season performance with three tries.
The referee for this encounter is Dave Pearson and, in case your reading this Sir, may I say how delighted I am that it is you that will be officiating. Never before has Sir been more appropriate. You are, without doubt, a man without peers.
By convention, I understand that the match previewer is supposed to give their best guess of the two teams. Well frankly I don't have a clue. Maybe the Saints management will heed the advice of some and ring the changes. I've checked the excellently compiled (thanks St Tim) weekly man of the match awards and there are a clutch of players that nearly always play and never get enough votes. So this may be the “night of the long knives” where Jim, Dorian and Grayson relegate Tiny, Dowson, Downey, Wood and Clarke (see what I mean about clueless). Personally I doubt it; barring injuries I would expect to see the same starting XV as last week (possibly Reihana back on the bench and maybe Ansbro will start). So my guess, for what it's worth:
Northampton: Foden; Ashton, Ansbro, Downey, Diggin; Myler, Dickson; Tonga'uiha, Hartley (capt), Mujati; Lawes, Day; Dowson, Wood, Wilson.
Leicester: Murphy (capt); Smith, M Tuilagi, Allen, A Tuilagi; Flood, Youngs; Ayerza, Chuter, Cole; Deacon, Slater; Mafi, Newby, Crane.
And apparently I'm also supposed to provide a score prediction. I have been known to dabble with the spread betting in the past and my advice to anyone with this one is “don't go there with a bargepole”. Genuinely, the only final score that would surprise me is if either side won by more than 14.
Maybe the question is what would be a good result for Saints? A win, however ugly (and there are many who would argue – given the opponents - the uglier the better) would put Saints back in the box seat they had before Christmas (but several weeks nearer the end of the season – we're back to Europe and =LV starting next week). A narrow defeat is far from a disaster either. And whatever the result I fancy that, as last year, you'll be watching the two home semi-finalists come April.
So, what the heck, I'll go for a draw.
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I actually don't give us a hope of a win. There I've said it. But with man city hot on Utd's heels; go on boys prove me wrong.....please.
Saint til I die
*I could agree with you - but then we'd both be wrong...*
Is Paul playing on Saturday?
No alcohol for January. I'm a dryathlete in aid of cancer research.
Dryathlon