Out on the training field, everything is working well, but the results just aren’t coming. The OPTA statistics tell him about individual players, but shed no light on his team. He needs comparisons. He needs analysis.

He looks over to his pretty PA and mutters “Get me the forensic scientists!”

Forensic science fans love the game, but it’s the numbers that really turn them on. Deep within the results lie clues to where the season is going right or wrong.

Let’s take a look.

We’ll start by laying out the current table:

Home and Away

First, the Home Table:

Here’s a surprise. Sharks, who last year were proving to be the best travellers, are 100% after 7 games at home.

But the Away Table highlights the problem:

The Sharks don’t swim in distant waters. Nearly 80% of their points are earned at home. Falcons don’t fly. Just one miserable bonus point for Newcastle on their travels. And Quins have scored only 12% of their points away from home.

Contrast this with Bath, who have earned 50% of their points away from the Rec. Watch out when Northampton and Wasps come to your town. Both teams have prospered away from home.

Of course, in the long run, home advantage counts and those clubs who have played fewer home games can expect to enjoy a better second half of the season.

So beware of the future Sharks, Tykes, Falcons and Irish. And Quins, be very afraid. Of the eleven games you have played, only 4 have been away from The Stoop.

Bonus Points

Well, not too much, on the face of it. Here’s the current table with the bonus points stripped out:

Only one minor change in the positions, but it makes things a whole lot tighter at the top, with only 6 points covering the top 3 positions, compared with an actual 10 point spread.

But, in general, bonus points make scant difference. It’s wins that count.

Points Scored and Conceded

Full marks to Gloucester for a prolific attack whilst keeping the door securely bolted at the back.

If you want your moneys-worth, then follow Bristol or Saracens. So far you would have seen averages of 54 points scored at every game.

But claim a rebate on your season ticket at Northampton and London Irish – only 40 and 42 points get scored here.

And cure your insomnia at Leicester – you will see no more than 38 points per game.

Tries Scored and Conceded

There are some clear signposts for the Coaches here. Quins, Sarries and the Shoguns have few problems getting the ball over the line. But it’s time to get those tackle bags out in earnest, because you are leaking at the back! And the Saracens bucket has got a serious hole in it – there’s a real chance of a bonus point for the opposition every time they play.

Across the East Midlands, opposing offences come up against two astonishingly skinflint defences. Saints only yield a try per game. But neither Northampton nor Leicester can get the ball over the try line enough to prosper from this.

Now we know who the prolific try scorers are, we can take a look at each team to see what percentage of their total points scored come exclusively from tries.

As you might expect, the bottom of the table is dominated by teams with prolific kickers, but it’s a surprise to see Bath near the foot.

Leeds and London Irish will certainly be keeping a vigilant eye on the health of van Straaten and Everitt.

In total, there have been 296 tries scored so far in the ZP. Here’s how they have been shared out:

Carthorses and whippets; traditionally it was the forwards who grunted and grafted and the backs who ran in the sparkling tries. Is it still the backs that score most of the tries?

Yes, of course – the backs have scored 66% of the season’s tries and the forwards have scored 34% (there have been 8 penalty tries). Nevertheless, when we study the individual percentage splits, there are some big disparities:

It’s the teams with the flying three-quarters at the top of the list and the teams with the power packs at the bottom.

56% of all tries have been scored at home. 5 penalty tries out of 8 have been awarded to the away team. Saracens have scored 7 more away tries than home tries. London Irish forwards have scored 63% of their total home tries, but have only scored a single away try.

Kicks

No surprise about the top of the table, but kicking Coaches might want to note that despite the fact that Wasps, Saracens and Harlequins have jointly scored almost 30% of the Premiership’s total tries, their well under-average conversion rate has blunted the impact.

On the other hand, although Newcastle have only managed 15 tries, young Wilko has ensured they were almost all worth 7 points.

There have been 35 drop goals scored, with 7 coming from the Sharks. Only Bristol has failed to drop a goal.

There have been 429 penalties. Braam van Straaten is the undisputed champ, with 47 penalties scored (11% of the total). He is 8 penalties ahead of his nearest rival, Everitt

Give Them A Pay Rise!

First, the try scorers:

Now lets check out the players who make the biggest contribution to their clubs’ points scores, by percentage:

The Crowd

And the total crowds are:

Leicester represent 17.5% of the total attendance.

The Crowd Pullers

Halfway through the season, it is bound to be skewed by the venues visited. Those teams that have visited Welford Road, Franklin’s Gardens and Kingsholm will have the higher numbers. But later in the season, it will give a good indication of which teams can pull the home fans out of the pubs and away from the shopping.

Now there’s a surprise!

That’s it for now. Let’s meet again for some more Forensic Science!