Round six match preview: Ulster vs Saints
By Rich
January 19 2003
After two damp squib's of seasons in the European Rugby Cup, Saints have done well to top pool six going into this weekend's final round. The champions of 2000 have an excellent chance of qualifying for the knock out stages. In their way stand 1999 champions Ulster. It should be a cracking game.
Ulster v Northampton Saints
Friday 17th January 2002
Ravenhill
Heineken Cup
Action from Saints 32-9 win over Ulster at Franklin's Gardens
Friday 17th January 2002
Ravenhill
Heineken Cup
Action from Saints 32-9 win over Ulster at Franklin's Gardens
If last week was a defining match in Saints season then
heaven knows how the Northampton PR men are describing the game against Ulster
on Friday. The Green, Black and Golds are 80 minutes from qualifying for
the knockout stages of the Northern hemisphere's premier club competition
for the first time since the heady days of 2000. Whisper this quietly but
all they need is a 0-0 draw!
Saints form of late has been up and down to say the least. After an impressive win at Welford road and then back to back against Cardiff things looked to have recovered after the Autumn internationals. Then came the narrow escape at Orrell, the very next week, despite a close game the forwards got annihilated by Gloucester and finally the capitulation to ZP strugglers London Irish. As we say in these parts 'the wheels had come off the hats'. So it was a great relief that the Saints showed true fighting spirit to beat Biarritz and top pool six in the Heineken cup at a loud and appreciative Franklin's Gardens. Nearly there then but....how hard is it to win a match in Ulster? Head coach Wayne Smith said on Northampton Saints official web site: “We are treating this game in the same way we treated our league game against Leicester at Welford Road. Ulster have never lost a European cup game at Ravenhill, so we have to go out there with the aim to win.” Oh dear, it's not going to be pretty!
Right so what can the Saints get away with on a freezing January evening at Ravenhill. For anyone with less than a Masters Degree in Applied Mathematics the European qualification conundrum is a tad taxing on the grey matter. With only one pool round left to play there are still places up for grabs in the final eight for the knockout stages with only Toulouse, Leinster and Leicester already guaranteed to qualify. In Pool six, the so called 'pool of death' any one from Saints, Biarritz and Ulster could top the group and progress and to be fair it's all a bit much for my scrape in C at O'level maths brain to comprehend so we've enlisted the help of an expert to explain the ins and outs of Euro qualification. Over to you Mark H.......
Marvellous Mathematical Magician Mark
HEALTH WARNING - PLEASE LIE DOWN IN A DARK ROOM AFTER READING THE FOLLOWING EXPLANATION
Right, let's start with the easy bit. If Saints
win or draw, then the group is ours and we will, at worst, be seeded sixth
in the quarter-finals. Any higher seeding will depend on other results
going our way, and the number of tries that Saints score on Friday night
- but that's another story, and the possibilities at the moment are infinitesimal.
Suffice to say that if Saints score at least four tries, the potential is
there to be number two seeds (we would have to score at least 15(!) tries
to overtake Toulouse, and as much as I'd like it, it's not going to happen).
If Saints lose, however, then it's calculators out time. The scenarios are (and these are all based on a Biarritz win against Cardiff):-
1) If Saints score a try, then Biarritz cannot win the group irrespective of the match result.
2) If Ulster fail to score 3 tries, and win by less than 23 points, Saints will go through by virtue of having scored more tries in the matches against Biarritz and Ulster.
3) If Ulster fail to score 3 tries, and win by 23 points or more, then Biarritz will win the group by virtue of having scored more tries than Ulster, and by having a better points difference than Saints.
4) If Ulster score 3 tries, Saints score none, and Ulster win by less than 23 points, Saints will go through by virtue of having scored more tries than Biarritz, and having a better points difference than Ulster in the matches between the two sides.
5) If Ulster score 3 tries, Saints score none, and win by 23 or 24 points, Biarritz will progress by virtue of having a better points difference in the games between the three sides.
6) If Ulster score 3 tries, Saints score none, and win by 25 points or more, Ulster will progress by virtue of having a better points difference in the games between the three sides.
7) If Ulster score 3 tries more than Saints (4-1, 5-2 etc.), then Ulster will need to win by 24 points or more to qualify by virtue of having a better points difference than Saints in the two matches.
8) If Ulster score 4 tries more than Saints, Ulster will progress by virtue of having scored more tries than either Biarritz or Saints in the matches between the sides.
Basically, the premise is that for every Saints try scored, Ulster have to score at least three more and win by a margin that we haven't lost by all season. The perfect way to relieve a lot of the tension would be for Archie Brooks or Kingsthorpe's Finest to go over in the corner in the first minute to eliminate Biarritz. That way, Ulster will have to throw the ball about to try and get the tries and winning margin that they need.
As for the quarter final seeding, watch the results come in on Saturday and Sunday. There are two key matches.
Munster v Gloucester. A Saints-Munster double would mean at least the fifth spot, and probable avoidance of another trip to our fortress at Welford Road.
Glasgow v Llanelli (Friday night). Again, a Saints-Glasgow double would again mean at least fifth spot. Alternatively, if both Saints and the Scarlets win, four more tries than Llanelli score for Saints will also raise us above the Welsh.
If there's a Saints-Munster-Glasgow treble, then Saints will be fourth seeds with a home draw, probably against Gloucester. It would be asking way too much for Neath to win at Leicester - wouldn't it?
Right then is everyone clear about all of that? Ok we're all still lost so the arrangement is this: Mark is taking two large pieces of card to Ravenhill, one has a tick and one has a cross on it. He will hold up the appropriate piece of card at no-side on Friday night.
THE TEAMS
Northampton Saints
15 NICK BEAL
14 James Brooks
13 PETER JORGENSEN
12 JOHN LESLIE (capt)
11 BEN COHEN
10 PAUL GRAYSON
9 MATT DAWSON
1 TOM SMITH
2 STEVE THOMPSON
3 MATT STEWART
4 STEVE WILLIAMS
5 Rob Hunter
6 Grant Seely
7 Mark Soden
8 MARK CONNORS
Replacements:
16 Dan Richmond
17 Chris Budgen
18 Robbie Morris
19 Jon Phillips
20 Ian Vass
21 Mark Tucker
22 JON SLEIGHTHOLME
Ulster
B Cunningham, Topping, Constable, Stewart, Coulter, Humphreys, Doak; Kempson, Sexton, Best, Longwell, Davidson, Ward, McMilan, McWhirter.
Replacements: Fitzpatrick, Shields, Blair, Nelson, Campbell, J Cunningham, Young.
History
To my knowledge Northampton have never played Ulster before this season, so with a 32-9 win Saints already have the 1-0 upper hand in that particular mini series. Click the link for the COYSDC Saints V Ulster Match report
If You're Going to the Game
You lucky people I'm sure you'll have a whale of a time but wrap up warm as the weather report isn't nice. For the rest of us stuck at home the game is live on the television (kick off 7.05pm) on both British Eurosport and BBC 2 NI (sky digibox channel 962). If you can't get those channel's the dynamic duo of Adam Blackmore and James Knight are covering the game on BBC Radio Northampton or if you can't get any of those try the live web cast from the Saints official site.
Here are the rest of the round 6 games:
HEINEKEN CUP – ROUND 6
(All kick-offs LOCAL time)
Pool 6: Ulster v Northampton Saints (BBC NI / B Euro) 1905 Joel Dume (F)
Beziers v Amatori & Calvisano 1800 Donal Courtney (I)
Pool 2: Viadana v Perpignan (Tele +) 1500 Roy Maybank (E)
Munster v Gloucester (RTE / BBC) 1445 Joel Jutge (F)
Pool 3: Bourgoin v Sale Sharks 1500 Alan Lewis (I)
Pool 4: Swansea v Montferrand 1500 Gregg Davies (S)
Pool 5: Newport v Edinburgh Rugby 1430 Christophe Berdos (F)
Pool 6: Biarritz Olympique v Cardiff (FR2) 1500 Giulio De Santis (It)
Pool 5: London Irish v Toulouse 1345 Iain Ramage (S)
If Saints lose, however, then it's calculators out time. The scenarios are (and these are all based on a Biarritz win against Cardiff):-
1) If Saints score a try, then Biarritz cannot win the group irrespective of the match result.
2) If Ulster fail to score 3 tries, and win by less than 23 points, Saints will go through by virtue of having scored more tries in the matches against Biarritz and Ulster.
3) If Ulster fail to score 3 tries, and win by 23 points or more, then Biarritz will win the group by virtue of having scored more tries than Ulster, and by having a better points difference than Saints.
4) If Ulster score 3 tries, Saints score none, and Ulster win by less than 23 points, Saints will go through by virtue of having scored more tries than Biarritz, and having a better points difference than Ulster in the matches between the two sides.
5) If Ulster score 3 tries, Saints score none, and win by 23 or 24 points, Biarritz will progress by virtue of having a better points difference in the games between the three sides.
6) If Ulster score 3 tries, Saints score none, and win by 25 points or more, Ulster will progress by virtue of having a better points difference in the games between the three sides.
7) If Ulster score 3 tries more than Saints (4-1, 5-2 etc.), then Ulster will need to win by 24 points or more to qualify by virtue of having a better points difference than Saints in the two matches.
8) If Ulster score 4 tries more than Saints, Ulster will progress by virtue of having scored more tries than either Biarritz or Saints in the matches between the sides.
Basically, the premise is that for every Saints try scored, Ulster have to score at least three more and win by a margin that we haven't lost by all season. The perfect way to relieve a lot of the tension would be for Archie Brooks or Kingsthorpe's Finest to go over in the corner in the first minute to eliminate Biarritz. That way, Ulster will have to throw the ball about to try and get the tries and winning margin that they need.
As for the quarter final seeding, watch the results come in on Saturday and Sunday. There are two key matches.
Munster v Gloucester. A Saints-Munster double would mean at least the fifth spot, and probable avoidance of another trip to our fortress at Welford Road.
Glasgow v Llanelli (Friday night). Again, a Saints-Glasgow double would again mean at least fifth spot. Alternatively, if both Saints and the Scarlets win, four more tries than Llanelli score for Saints will also raise us above the Welsh.
If there's a Saints-Munster-Glasgow treble, then Saints will be fourth seeds with a home draw, probably against Gloucester. It would be asking way too much for Neath to win at Leicester - wouldn't it?
Right then is everyone clear about all of that? Ok we're all still lost so the arrangement is this: Mark is taking two large pieces of card to Ravenhill, one has a tick and one has a cross on it. He will hold up the appropriate piece of card at no-side on Friday night.
THE TEAMS
Northampton Saints
15 NICK BEAL
14 James Brooks
13 PETER JORGENSEN
12 JOHN LESLIE (capt)
11 BEN COHEN
10 PAUL GRAYSON
9 MATT DAWSON
1 TOM SMITH
2 STEVE THOMPSON
3 MATT STEWART
4 STEVE WILLIAMS
5 Rob Hunter
6 Grant Seely
7 Mark Soden
8 MARK CONNORS
Replacements:
16 Dan Richmond
17 Chris Budgen
18 Robbie Morris
19 Jon Phillips
20 Ian Vass
21 Mark Tucker
22 JON SLEIGHTHOLME
Ulster
B Cunningham, Topping, Constable, Stewart, Coulter, Humphreys, Doak; Kempson, Sexton, Best, Longwell, Davidson, Ward, McMilan, McWhirter.
Replacements: Fitzpatrick, Shields, Blair, Nelson, Campbell, J Cunningham, Young.
History
To my knowledge Northampton have never played Ulster before this season, so with a 32-9 win Saints already have the 1-0 upper hand in that particular mini series. Click the link for the COYSDC Saints V Ulster Match report
If You're Going to the Game
You lucky people I'm sure you'll have a whale of a time but wrap up warm as the weather report isn't nice. For the rest of us stuck at home the game is live on the television (kick off 7.05pm) on both British Eurosport and BBC 2 NI (sky digibox channel 962). If you can't get those channel's the dynamic duo of Adam Blackmore and James Knight are covering the game on BBC Radio Northampton or if you can't get any of those try the live web cast from the Saints official site.
Here are the rest of the round 6 games:
HEINEKEN CUP – ROUND 6
(All kick-offs LOCAL time)
FRIDAY, 17 JANUARY
Pool 3: Glasgow Rugby v Llanelli (BBC Wales)
1930
Tony Spreadbury (E)Pool 6: Ulster v Northampton Saints (BBC NI / B Euro) 1905 Joel Dume (F)
SATURDAY, 18 JANUARY
Pool 1: Leicester Tigers v Neath
1500 Alain Rolland (I)Beziers v Amatori & Calvisano 1800 Donal Courtney (I)
Pool 2: Viadana v Perpignan (Tele +) 1500 Roy Maybank (E)
Munster v Gloucester (RTE / BBC) 1445 Joel Jutge (F)
Pool 3: Bourgoin v Sale Sharks 1500 Alan Lewis (I)
Pool 4: Swansea v Montferrand 1500 Gregg Davies (S)
Pool 5: Newport v Edinburgh Rugby 1430 Christophe Berdos (F)
Pool 6: Biarritz Olympique v Cardiff (FR2) 1500 Giulio De Santis (It)
SUNDAY, 19 JANUARY
Pool 4: Bristol Shoguns v Leinster Lions (B Euro/RTE)
1345 Nigel Owens (W)Pool 5: London Irish v Toulouse 1345 Iain Ramage (S)