ZP Betting Preview - Week One and Outright Markets
By Wellsaint
September 10 2003
He's back - the man the bookies love to hate - Wellsaint's here with a betting preview looking at the outright Premiership odds, relegation odds, and those all important week one matches.
ZURICH PREMIERSHIP OUTRIGHT BETTING AND WEEK ONE PREVIEW
Hello again folks! I hope you all had a good summer and are ready for action.
Let's start with a look at the best prices for the Zurich Premiership -
Outright
Gloucester 5/2 (Tote)
Wasps 3/1 (Lad)
Leicester 5/1 (Hills, Chandler)
Saints 11/2 (Chandler)
Sale 6/1 (Hills, Lad)
Leeds 40/1 (Tote)
Newcastle 40/1 (Lad)
Saracens 40/1 (Sporting Odds)
Bath 100/1 (Sporting Odds)
Harlequins 100/1 (Hills)
Rotherham 125/1 (Hills)
London Irish 200/1 (Sporting Odds)
Gloucester: the moral if not actual champions. Can be expected to go well again this season, if the end of last season and off-season departures don't affect them too much. Getting Simpson- Daniel back from World Cup duty was an unexpected boost.Prediction: third
Wasps: the champions (well that's what the history book says): a strong team, and I think that they will take all the beating again. One thing that could affect them is the number of players they lose to the World Cup, but that goes for most teams. Prediction: Champions
Leicester: gained most out of the last discards before the World Cup 30 was confirmed getting Rowntree, Smith and Healey back. A week ago, I was writing them off: now, I'm not sure - a lot will depend on how the team gel. Prediction: fourth
Saints: a lot has been said elsewhere. I suspect one team at least will be too good. Let us hope I am wrong. Prediction: second
Sale: not sure what to make of them - could be good. An additional factor is how well they adjust to their new home. Prediction: fifth
Harlequins: I expect a steady season of improvement, building on last year.
Prediction: sixth
Leeds: Can't be as good as last year. A season of mixed fortunes I feel.
Prediction: seventh.
Saracens: A long way to go, but they could be taking steps in the right direction. Prediction: eighth
Newcastle: Not convinced. I thought they were poor last year, and whilst they'll do OK at home they'll struggle on the road. Prediction: ninth
Bath: It can't get any worse. Can it? Prediction: tenth
London Irish: A hard season ahead. Prediction: eleventh
Rotherham: Sorry, someone has to be last. Prediction: Relegated
Which leads on to another interesting market from Sporting Odds:
Who will finish bottom of the ZP? (Sporting Odds)
5/4 London Irish
10/3 Rotherham
4/1 Quins
8/1 Bath
8/1 Newcastle
10/1 Sarries
33/1 Leeds
Rotherham have been backed but 10/3 is still far, far too large.
Recommended bets:
Very little value in the outrights: Saints e/w at 11/2 means that if they finish in the front 3 you will make a small profit (or a large one
if they win.) Wasps at 3/1 the best of an uninspiring bunch.
I would suggest that the 10/3 Rotherham, if it is still available, is a massive punt. Quins will not be going down, and Irish 5/4 is no
value whatsoever.
All prices were correct as of 1600 hours, Tue 9 Sept.
Finally, there is also a market on top try scorer. Good luck!
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Week One Matches
Sale v Saints - Friday night
Another Friday night opener - my views on which are well known. This is always one of the hardest games for Saints, and resulted in a narrow loss last year. I fear the same result again as it will take the side a game or two to gel. Sale to edge this by four.
Quins v Wasps - Sat - live on Sky
I expect a good showing from Quins this year, but the first home game couldn't be much harder. Don't expect a rout, but Wasps to win this
by ten.
Leicester v London Irish - Sat
Leicester to win - start the bidding at 20 points plus
Gloucester v Rotherham - Sat
Gloucester to win - start the bidding at 30 points plus
Leeds v Bath - Sun
Leeds had a memorable season last year, and I'll be surprised if they do as well. That said, they will be hard to beat at Headlingley as Bath
will find out. Leeds by ten.
Newcastle v Saracens - Sun
The most difficult one of the weekend to predict. Sarries may take time to gel, and home advantage swings it for me. Newcastle by five.
The handicap odds for these games should be available Friday morning, when I will update with Week One's bets.
Enjoy.... and COME ON YOU SAINTS!!
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