Heineken Cup Betting Preview Round 1 and Outrights
By Wellsaint/Come In Number 10
December 5 2003
Time to pack the cases and dust off those passports, it's time for the annual rugbyfest that is the Heineken European Cup. 24 sides start here on the road to Twickenham on 23 May 2004 - what odds new email addresses featuring the numbers 23504? 16/1, actually..
HEINEKEN CUP ROUND ONE AND OUTRIGHT BETTING PREVIEW
Wellsaint and Come In Number 10
12 games and recommendations for outright, groups etc.
Pool One
#25 Stade Francais v #26 Leicester
Who would have thought that the 2002 finalists would be 25th and 26th rated in Europe (Euro Table Rugby Rankings) at the start of this 2003/4
competition? Leicester, having contributed so much to the England Rugby World Cup success, are struggling with results this season; Stade Francais are bottom of their pool in France. Home advantage steers me to predict that Stade will win, by around 7 points (CinNo10 says by 10)
Bookies line has Stade Francais as 9-11 point favourites; it will be a close call, but the percentage call for me would be Leicester (CinNo10 would, on the basis of his prediction, probably give the game a swerve)
#18 Gwent Dragons v #4 Ulster
Both teams are going well in the Celtic League where it is third v first. CinNo10 fancies the Dragons by 7 but I disagree and would go for Ulster to win a tight game by four points. The bookmakers have Ulster as four point favourites, so I swerve this game - CinNo10 is probably in the bookies as we speak....
Pool One outright betting (best odds) - Stade F 11/10, Leicester 11/4, Ulster 4/1, Gwent 25/1: - I'd be speculative here, and say that the 4/1
about Ulster represents value; Stade and Leicester aren't firing on all cylinders, and you'll see worse 4/1 shots this year.
Pool Two
#15 Edinburgh v #3 Toulouse
Edinburgh are mid table in the Celtic League whilst Toulouse are up with the pace in Pool 2 of the French league. CinNo10 fancies Toulouse to be
far too strong for Edinburgh and to win by 18 points; whilst they will win, I think this could be a little rich, and would suggest a margin
around 12 to 14 points. The bookies make Toulouse 9 to 12 point favs., and the percentage call is Toulouse to just beat the line.
#23 Leeds v #24 Neath-Swansea Ospreys
Both are ninth of twelve in their respective leagues and I think that home advantage will be the clincher. CinNo10 goes for Leeds by 13, but
again I think he may have overestimated slightly -I would go for by Leeds by 9 (which is the bookies' line, so I'm swerving).
Pool Two outrights (best odds): Toulouse 1/5, Neath-Swansea 14/1, Leeds 14/1, Edinburgh 18/1. No arguments - Toulouse all the way.
Pool Three
#8 Leinster Lions v #19 Biarritz
This could be a real crackerjack of a game, and Come In Number 10 and I both agree that Donnybrook presents a real test to any visiting team. I can't see Biarritz getting anything from this game (they are mid to low table in their pool in the French league, Leinster 4th in the Celtic League). CinNo10 says Leinster by 12 and I would say this is probably around the mark (I would say a few more - maybe by 15?) Bookies have
Leinster as 8 to 9 point favourites and I take them to readily beat the line.
#13 Sale Sharks v #30 Cardiff Blues
Sale are 5th in ther ZP, Cardiff 10th in the Celtic; CinNo10 says easy for Sale (by 16) - why stop there? Sale to cut away and win by in excess
of 20 points. Handicap line is Sale giving up 15, which should be well within their compass.
Pool Three outrights (best odds): evens Leinster, 7/2 Biarritz, 4/1 Sale, 25/1 Cardiff. Leinster at evens the logical selection.
Pool Four
#16 Llanelli Scarlets vs #10 Northampton Saints
Not an easy start to the 2003/4 campaign for Saints (plus ca change) as they travel to Stradey Park looking for a win. Only Ben Cohen of the
four England World Cup stars starts, although Wally and Larry should get some game time. Llanelli are 2nd in the Celtic League, and Stradey is never an easy away game. Come In Number 10 think Llanelli will prevail by nine; I hope he is wrong, but I fear the best we will get from this game is a bonus point for losing by less than seven (which could be crucial in this potentially tight group.) The betting line is Llanelli are 5 to 7 point favourites. Too close to recommend placing a bet.
#17 Agen v #38 Borders
Agen are fifth in their pool in the French league whilst Borders are second last in the Celtic League. I can't see anything other than Agen
steamrollering Borders, possibly by as much as thirty points - CinNo10 says by twenty. Bookies lines are either side of 30 points; get as low
as you can, and get ready to collect.
Pool Four Outrights (best prices): 6/4 Llanelli, 6/4 Saints, 5/1 Agen, 80/1 Borders. Tells you all you need to know about the Borders (I will
be proved right.) Now, as I've said before, this will come down to bonus points as I expect Borders to get nothing home or away, and the
other three sides in the group to win their home games. On that basis, 5/1 Agen is overpriced, if nothing else.
Pool Five
#39 Benetton Treviso v #6 Gloucester
Treviso are top of the Italian league whilst Gloucester are in mid table in the ZP. Come in Number 10 thinks Gloucester by a "cricket score" -over 35 points. I'm not so sure - Gloucester will win, but the bookies only have them as 15 point favourites. This is nearer the mark - I'd be prepared to bet Gloucester, as I think a 20 point winning margin is likely.
#9 Bourgoin v #11 Munster
Bourgoin are second in their pool of the French league whilst Munster are around mid table in the Celtic. CinNo10 says that whilst Munster are
aging they can still mix it in the forwards whereas Bourgoin are relatively new to this level. He fancies Muinster by five. I would
have to disagree; I think that Bourgoin will be able to edge this at home, but probably in the tightest game of the weekend. Bourgoin by
3. Munster are 3 point favourites and therefore I'll be betting Bourgoin (whilst CinNo10 will be playing Munster...)
Pool Five Outrights (best prices): evens Munster, 2/1 Gloucester, 9/2 Bourgoin, 1000/1 Treviso. Depends on the Gloucester - Bourgoin games I feel - this could end up as another group where three teams win four games and Treviso get their bus fare home. So on that basis the value once more lies with the French at Bourgoin at 9/2.
Pool Six
#21 Celtic Warriors v #40 Ghial Amatori and Calvisano
I thought Amatori was something I drank after dinner (that's Amaretto, you doofus! - Ed). Warriors are eighth in the Celtic League and
Calvisano are 2nd in the Italian league. I can't see Calvisano troubling the Warriors and would expect a home win by around 30 points (CinNo10
says by 25+). The Warriors are up to 38 point favourites, and it could be worth siding with Calvisano with the start, although you could be in
for a hairy last quarter seeing if they can keep the loss margin down!!
#1 Wasps v #12 Perpignan
In the words of the song, "save the best for last". Well, probably. Wasps have been strong recently but face a Perpignan side boosted by
familiar faces such as Dan Luger and Tim Stimpson. The return of Wasps England stars will be a boost to a side going well, and I can see Wasps winning this by twelve points - Come in Number 10 fancies Wasps by a more conservative six. The betting line is Wasps as 8 to 10 point favs., and, whilst this is tight, I'd be happy to side with Wasps.
Pool Six Outrights (best prices): 5/6 Wasps, 5/2 Perpignan, 5/1 Celtic Warriors, 5000/1 (yes five thousand!) Calvisano - Wasps should win this
group with something to spare.
Outright betting (best odds)
9/2 Toulouse, 8/1 Wasps, 10/1 Munster, Stade Francais; 11/1 Leinster,14/1 Gloucester, 16/1 Northampton, Leicester, Llanelli, Perpignan;
28/1 Biarritz, 33/1 Sale; 40/1 Agen, Bourgoin; 50/1 Ulster; 66/1 and above other teams - normal e/w terms 1/2 odds 1 and 2 (i.e. Saints to
reach the final effective odds 8/1)
Recommendation: Toulouse will be hard to beat and should have an easy run to the quarters; 9/2 is fair value. My fancy is that an English
side may win this year, and my fancy would be Wasps, primarily because I think that they should be able to qualify from their group and secure
a home quarter final draw, which they would be favourites to win. This being the case, effectively, if you were to back them each way, if they were to win the semi final you would have a 4/1 winner with a chance of picking up on the win part of the bet in what would, effectively, be
a "home" game. Munster I fancy will find one too good, as ever; Gloucester could be dangerous, but aren't in the easiest group; Saints I fear could struggle (the problem being, if we qualify, we are likely to be away from home in the quarters.) Leinster represent a reasonable
punt at 11/1 as I feel they will also reach the quarters easily, and, again, provided they could win through the quarters, would effectively
be able to get 11/2 about a final appearance. Leicester are underpriced based on this season's performances; I feel the bookies have built in a
protection factor in case they suddenly become good (no evidence yet, it must be said - although give it two weeks... - hopefully NOT...) I
suppose a case could be made, say, if you were backing Wasps, to have a saver bet on Perpignan, so you have the pool six winner (and likely
first or second seed, bearing in mind Calvisano are in the pool, and what do tries make? Bonus points!!)
So... I think it's Wasps at 8/1 for the main bet; Leinster at 11/1 as a more moderate bet; and a Rod Laver on Perpignan at 16/1.
I think that covers it.... I'm outta here.
COME ON YOU SAINTS!!