Heineken Cup Betting Preview Round Two
By Wellsaint/Come In Number 10
December 12 2003
Another exciting weekend of European Cup rugby this weekend, as Saints host their first of three home games in the group stage against newcomers to the competition Agen. Elsewhere, there are some good games, with the match at Ravenhill standing out as the highlight for me.
Round 2 of the Group Stage could pan out like this:
Pool One
#9 Ulster v #25 Stade Francais
A big difference of opinion between Come in Number 10 (CinNo10) and I here; I feel that at Ravenhill Ulster are close to unbeatable. CinNo10 feels Stade came out of the Leicester game with a lot of positives (I thought it was a dire game, to be frank) and feels Stade could win this one by seven. As I have said elsewhere this week,
if we all agreed on everything it would be a dull, dull world. The bookies cannot agree either! Both sides can be backed with a three
point start if you shop around, though, looking at all the bookies' lines, Ulster are slight favourites.
#29 Leicester Tigers v #16 Gwent Dragons
We are in agreement that Leicester will win this. I think it will be a close game with Leicester coming through by five; CinNo10 says
by 18. The bookies fancy Leicester by 15-18, so I would be looking to back Gwent with the points; CinNo10 would leave well alone!!
Pool Two
#26 Neath-Swansea Ospreys v #11 Edinburgh
Possibly the hardest game of the weekend to call - Edinburgh pulled off the shock of the weekend beating Toulouse, Neath losing at Leeds. A
percentage call, this, at best - Neath by three or four points. The bookies mark is around the same, and I give this game the widest of wide
swerves.
#3 Toulouse v #23 Leeds Tykes
Neither of us expect Toulouse to lose (sorry!) this week - we fancy a victory margin of 17-20 points. Again the bookies are in the same area
opinionwise and I swerve this game also.
Pool Three
#32 Cardiff Blues v #4 Leinster
Cardiff played well in their loss to Sale whilst Leinster were too good for a poor Biarritz side. We both feel Leinster will make it two out of two - CinNo10 thinks by ten points, and I feel that is probably around the mark. The bookies have Leinster as 7 to 8 (one place only 5) point favourites, and I could back Leinster on that basis.
#24 Biarritz v #12 Sale Sharks
We both feel Biarritz should win, I by 4 in a tight game, CinNo10 by 10. The bookies agree with CinNo10, and he would, I guess, swerve the game; I would (as a percentage call only) back Sale with the start, although this is hardly
banker material.
Pool Four
#13 Northampton Saints v #18 S U Agen
The big 'un. Agen come to town bringing a big pack and attitude a plenty to the party. Agen played well in their defeat of Borders (the pack looked useful, to say the least); and the least said about our performance in Wales, the better, as far as I am concerned. What will happen on Saturday? Well, my views are already out in the open - I think we could end up being scrummaged
off the park - and it wouldn't be the biggest surprise, if, in a tight and possibly low scoring game, we came out on the wrong side. CinNo10 feels we can nick it. The predictions? I say we could lose this by four (I hope not); CinNo10 thinks we win by three. Either way, one thing's for sure: University Challenge rugby (i.e. giving starters for ten points!) is not an option tomorrow.
We are 9 or 10 point favourites with the bookies, and this is very much upper-quartile performance range for Saints (although I've been wrong on this before this season!) Agen with the points would appear the only sensible option. As ever, this does NOT mean I want Agen to win, but I think that the bookies have overestimated the
likely margin of a Saints victory.
#38 Borders v #14 Llanelli Scarlets
Llanelli will know too much for the Borders, and will win by between 10 to 14 points. The bookies have Llanelli as 15-18 point favourites. Could be a little mileage in siding with Borders and taking the points, but, once more, not banker
material.
Pool Five
#7 Gloucester v #10 Bourgoin
Gloucester secured a maximum point haul in Treviso whilst Bourgoin lost by a solitary point in the tightest game of the weekend (hey, that's one prediction I did get right!!) This weekend, home advantage is the key, so Gloucester should
edge this by six; CinNo10 is sweeter on Cherries than I and has them to win by...10 (how DID he come up with his username?!) The bookies have Gloucester to win by 12-14, so, once more, percentage call would be Bourgoin.
#9 Munster v #39 Benetton Treviso
Munster will win, the question is how far? CinNo10 says by in excess of 25 (he's getting riskier by the week!) - I'd say by forty, maybe more (although as ever, the weather could be a factor). Bookies have Munster as 30-36 favourites - strictly for those happy to give up large numbers of points (as I said, the weather could be more of a factor than the Italians - bear in mind the 5pm ko!!)
Pool Six
#41 Calvisano v #1 London Wasps
We both agree on the winners and the margin - Wasps by 30. Bookies have Wasps as low 20s favourites and I would be confident to back Wasps to beat the line.
#17 Perpignan v #22 Celtic Warriors
Similarly, we take Perpignan to win by a margin of 15-18. Bookies in the same area points-wise; no bet recommended.
BEST BETS
Tonight
Whoever you fancy out of Ulster - Stade (you know what I'm doing!!)
Leinster -7/-8 over Cardiff
Tomorrow
Wasps -23/-24 over Calvisano
Agen +10 over Saints
Bourgoin +14 over Gloucester
Riskier: Sale +10 over Biarritz
Sunday
Borders +15/16 over Llanelli
IF YOU HAVE ONLY ONE BET THIS WEEKEND, MAKE IT:
Ulster at levels (3 point start in one place) over Stade F.
Here's hoping it's a good weekend of rugby.
COME ON YOU SAINTS!!
Wellsaint and Come In Number 10