COYSDC's Heineken Preview
By Mark H
October 20 2004
The tenth season of the Heineken Cup starts on Friday night with games in Llanelli, Belfast and Perpignan, and looks to be one of the most open tournaments for years.
The matrix system of selecting the pools has thrown up its usual hotpotch of those that are difficult to call through either quality of side or apparent lack of strength, and those which have the potential to provide a shock or two. Who would have said that on the last weekend of pool action last season, Stade Francais, Wasps and Llanelli would go to Welford Road, Perpignan and the Gardens respectively and win away to win their groups? Who would have backed Wasps to overcome Munster in front of 48,000 screaming Munstermen at Lansdowne Road? And who'd be Clement Poitrenaud after last year's final? --------- Leicester (English Wildcard winners) Biarritz (best French quarter-finalist) Calvisano (Italian runners up) --------- Bourgoin (French semi-finalists) Leinster (Irish second seeds, 8th in Celtic League) Benetton Treviso (Italian champions) This is possibly the hardest group to call for a winner, simply because if both Leinster and Bath play to their potential, it’s a toss up as to who gets through. The Irishmen will be buoyed by the return of their internationals after missing the opening weeks of the Celtic League, but may find that the weight of expectation on them, especially after missing out on the quarter-finals last season after a last weekend collapse in Biarritz. It’s also questionable what effect playing at Lansdowne Road will have; Sale certainly rose to the occasion last season when they won there, and Bath will also fancy their chances, especially if they get a parity in the pack and nullify a backline that features O’Driscoll, D’Arcy, Horgan, Hickie, Dempsey and Contepomi. Bourgoin’s best player, Sebastien Chabal, is now at Sale, and they’ve never got out of the group before; indeed, two away wins out of twelve in their previous excursions suggests that they don’t travel well, whilst a home record of seven wins and five defeats is not that great either. Of the four English clubs to visit the Stade Pierre Rajon, only Sale have failed to win (the victors being Quins, Wasps and Glaws). Bath will fancy it - big time. Bourgoin do, however, feature ex-Saint Tevita Taumoepeau in their squad. Treviso have the same problem as Calvisano in Pool One; who do they beat? They only got one win on each of their last two trips into the competition (last year’s ironically being over Bourgoin). They have, however, beaten both Quins and Wasps in the competition, and with 19 internationals in their squad, have players used to playing at a high level. Outcome - Leinster to win the group, Bath to be challenging for a runners-up spot. --------- Toulouse (French semi-finalists) Llanelli Scarlets (Celtic League champions) Glasgow (Scottish second seeds, 11th in Celtic League) I can see I’m on a hiding to nothing here. If Saints play to their potential then there is a chance of qualification, either by winning the group or a runners up spot. If Saints play to current form, then all chance of qualifying will be gone by 3pm a week on Saturday. The facts are that Glasgow will be seen as the target in this group to try and get as near to maximum points from (although on current form, you could say that about either the Scarlets or Saints as well). I’ll expand more in the match preview this week, but Sunday is a must win for our boys, otherwise it’s a hard winter. Glasgow to me don’t have the consistency to qualify, but they can (and probably will) upset sides at Hughenden - witness their 37-6 loss in a Parker Pen first leg last year to Saracens that they almost turned around, winning 33-5 at home and going out by just three points. Kenny Logan has joined from Wasps, and he will no doubt get a big reception from Saints supporters on Sunday. We all know what the Scarlets did to us last season; wins in both games created a home quarter-final against Biarritz, in which they were blown away by the French forward power. It’s a different Llanelli side to last season; they’re losing games in the Celtic League at Stradey, and already looked pushed to retain their title. Europe brings out the best in them though, and hopefully the Gardens, players and supporters, will be ready for a game of international intensity next weekend. Stephen Jones has gone to Clermont Auvergne, but Scott Quinnell will no doubt be leading the charge to maintain a record that has seen them miss out on only two quarter-finals in eight previous attempts. And then we come to Toulouse. We’ve been there, we’ve been beaten there. Undoubted favourites for this pool, they played in the very first Heineken match back in 1995 in Romania, and will be looking good to play in the last game of the first ten years too. They haven’t lost at home in the competition since a 32-22 reverse to Saracens in 2000/01, and have won their last twelve home games. They’ve been in three finals, and only missed out on a fourth after drawing with Brive in 1997/98’s semi-final, subsequently losing on try count (even Munster haven’t managed to do that yet). The quality just drips off their squad, and it would be a major shock if they didn’t go through. Outcome - Toulouse all the way with at least five wins out of six. --------- Castres (French Cup winners) Munster (Irish top seeds, 7th in Celtic League) Neath-Swansea Ospreys (Welsh third seeds, 5th in Celtic League) This is another funny group. To me, Munster are favourites to go through, but on their form, there’s no guarantee of surviving. If we look at form, then the Ospreys look very good dark horses to not only win the group, but make damage later on in the competition. The Ospreys bring with them seasoned internationals who will be looking to improve the dismal record of last season, with only a win over Leeds in the Toulouse/Edinburgh group to shout about. Shane Williams, Stefan Terblanche and Sonny Parker bring the firepower; can the pack, including the ample-haired Jones brothers Adam and Duncan in the front row, give them the platform? Munster, perennial bridesmaids, must win this competition one day. In theory, that is. Jim Williams has come back for what is probably a final crack at the holy grail, and there is no reason, if the side keep their form and the Thomond Park factor on their side, that they shouldn’t replicate last season’s semi-final place. Having gone to Thomond in August for the Munster-Falcons friendly, there’s nothing special about the ground when empty or half-full that should cause it to be such a cauldron when full - proof, if any were needed, that the supporters do make a difference. It will take a good side to stop them progressing. Quins - bad so far, it will probably get worse before it gets better. Will Greenwood points out in this month’s Rugby World that it’s the same group as they got when last in the competition in 2001/02, and that they didn’t qualify. Same result, I’m afraid. Castres have recruited well, getting Mark Denney, Yanni Delaigue, Paul Volley and Glenn Metcalfe to join the Tarn side. Semi-finalists in 2001/02, they have an advantage of being unfancied and may be able to spring the sort of surprise that they did when winning the French Cup last season (they would have also qualified through league position). The unknown quantity will not finish bottom of the group, but may be too far away from the top. Outcome - Munster, just. --------- Perpignan (French runners up) Edinburgh (Scottish top seeds, 10th in Celtic League) Newport Gwent Dragons (Welsh second seeds, 3th in Celtic League) On paper, the weakest of the pools, or so I thought. Courtesy of that nice man at the Falcons SportNetwork site, this question was put to Joe Shaw in pre-season:- “…there’s absolutely no reason with the way we’re going to play and with the group of players we’ve got that we can’t win that group and do ourselves proud in Europe. You’d be a mug to go in in the first year in Europe and say “right, we’re going to clear up everything”, it’s going to be very hard, but why bet against us? We’ve got possibly the best player in the world and a strong squad as well, very strong squad, so watch this space I suppose really.” Add to this Falcons’ hooker Matt Thompson’s thoughts:- “…I don’t see where people can say it’s one of the weaker pools when you’ve got the cup winners in England, Perpignan were second, the second best team in the French league, Newport finished I think third in the Celtic League, and Edinburgh, very strong, the best team in Scotland I’d say. You can’t say that it’s a weak league, I feel that here we can beat anyone, any team in the world, but away - it all depends on our away form, how we perform, especially Perpignan and Edinburgh, those two games will be crucial to us away from home.” Guess it’s time for my thoughts. Falcons CAN win the group, but will have to win all three home games and the game in Edinburgh, as in my heart of hearts I cannot see success on Saturday in Newport nor in Perpignan in January. But then if that Wilkinson fellow can stay fit and kick all of the penalties they’ll no doubt get, who knows? Perpignan were swamped by Stade Francais in the French final last year, but are on top of Le Championnat this time around, and have only been beaten at home twice in the Heineken Cup; on both occasions the victors (Leicester and Wasps) went on to win the cup. Manny Edmonds will once again control things from fly half, All Black Scott Robertson controls the pack from number eight, and (whisper it quietly) Dan Luger is returning to the sort of form that made him a staple of Woodward’s England sides. The Dragons were by all accounts poor in pre-season at the Gardens, but now have all of their strength back. The half back pairing of Gareth Cooper and Ceri Sweeney are more than a handful, and the mercurial Percy Montgomery will once again be vital to their hopes. Teams will not fancy Rodney Parade, and there is pedigree there shown by the win over (an albeit 14 man) Stade Francais last season. And finally, Edinburgh. They’ll find it difficult to repeat their five victories from the pool stages that they achieved last season, especially with starting in Perpignan and having the Catalans visit Murrayfield in week six. They badly need their big players - Nathan Hines, Scott Murray, Simon Taylor and Brendan Laney - to be in top form early, otherwise the job could be too big. But then again, no-one expected them to go to the quarter-finals last year, did they? Outcome - Falcons to win the group. If I wish hard enough, that is. If I don’t, Perpignan. --------- Stade Francais (French champions) Ulster (Irish third seeds, 2th in Celtic League) Cardiff Blues (Welsh fourth seeds, 6th in Celtic League) And to the third group that on paper looks to be a group of death. We all know about Gloucester’s strengths and weaknesses, and they will have to be strong to come away from Paris with a positive result. Defeat is not the end, as I fully expect them to beat Ulster and Cardiff twice, but they may have to rely on their try scoring ability to go through. Stade won a second consecutive French title in June, and still have all of the qualities that won that, and knocked out Leicester last season, with one exception. The 96 year old Diego Dominguez retired after that title success, but they got a pretty decent replacement in the Argentinian kicking machine Gonzalo Quesada. Rodrigo Roncero will have the inside track on Gloucester, having been there for the last two seasons; on the other side of the scrum, Pablo Lemoine is as big as ever; and the centre pairing of Brian Leibenberg and Stephane Glas are more than useful. Ulster have only reached the quarter-finals once, and they went on to win the cup, beating Toulouse twice, Stade Francais and Colomiers in doing so. Since then, they haven’t really looked like getting their, seeming to concentrate more on maintaining a home record of not having lost a European game at Ravenhill in the last three seasons. Their talisman from 1999, Andy ward, is still there, as is David Humphreys, but any team that can win one week 33-0, then lose to the same opposition 49-7 six days later is too inconsistent to go further. Cardiff scraped into the competition as a result of the disbanding of the Celtic Warriors, but their recent record in the competition is shocking; only two wins in the last two seasons, and one of them a result of a missed conversion from in front of the posts at home to Biarritz last season. The players are there - Martyn Williams, Dan Baugh, Freddie Tuilagi, Robert Sidoli - but it looks too big a job to come through this group this time around. Outcome - Stade Francais to win the group, Gloucester to get a runners-up berth. --------- So all told, if the predictions work out right, then we should end up with:- 1 Toulouse v 8 Wasps 2 Perpignan v 7 Gloucester 3 Stade Francais v 6 Leinster 4 Munster v 5 Leicester From that little lot, I just have a feeling that we could see those pesky Tiggers and Toulouse battling it out at Murrayfield to become the first team to win the trophy three times. Or Saints could surprise me…
Sky continue their blanket coverage this season after the huge success of last year; it made a change to watch wall to wall rugby rather than the round ball game, and hopefully they will pick out the games of interest this year, rather than their own personal favourites.
As usual, I'm going to stick my head on the block and point you in the direction of the quarter-finalists. I didn't do too bad last year - 1 finalist and 1 beaten semi-finalist from my final prediction, and 6 of the 8 quarter-finalists (Leinster and Saints letting me down). Here we go then.
Pool One - Wasps (qualified as champions)
Victims of their own success? Wasps' victory in the final last year meant that a seventh English team qualified for this season's competition, which meant that Leicester were transplanted from Pool Six, allowing Gloucester in, and meaning that the Tigers would feature in the first ever Heineken Cup pool to feature two sides from the same country. Both of the English sides have ran into form at the right time to start the competition, although Leicester may be in better spirits simply through having a shorter injury list. Tigers have suffered a big loss in losing Martin Corry and George Chuter for week two's game in Biarritz, but have proved in the past that they can overcome such adversity. The injury list at the Causeway seems to be on a one out, one back basis at the moment, and they could regret (in the first two weeks at least) not having registered Edd Thrower, the try scorer against Saints, in their 34 man squad.
Biarritz finally put a run together last season, having threatened to twice previously, and were edged out in the white hot atmosphere of Bordeaux by their compatriots Toulouse. With a back row featuring old hands Serge Betsen and Thomas Lievremont, they hardly needed to strengthen, but that they have, bringing in Imanol Harinordoquy to provide extra power at the back. Yachvili will keep things dynamic at scrum half, and a back line featuring Damien Traille and Nicolas Brusque is not to be sniffed at.
Calvisano will once again be the whipping boys of the group, and must be looking forward to next season when the pool draw becomes open, in the hope that their squad featuring 12 Italian internationals, 1 Fijian and 1 Tongan can meet opposition that isn't the cream of England and France.
Key match - Wasps v Biarritz, week one. If the Waspies can win at home with an understrength team, then they're in a good position to qualify. If not, the Leicester double-header in December could be the end of their hopes.
Outcome - Leicester to win the group, Wasps may sneak one of the two runners-up spots available for the quarter-finals.
Pool Two - Bath (English runners-up)
Key match - Bourgoin v Bath, week six. If Bath win here, they should be in the quarters one way or another.
Pool Three - Saints (English semi-finalists)
Key match - Llanelli v Toulouse, week one. If the Scarlets win, then they post a warning to the pool; if they lose, they’re struggling and Les Toulousain have a big march on everyone. It would also mean that Saints would HAVE to win on Sunday if there are any real aspirations.
Pool Four - Harlequins (Parker Pen Challenge Cup winners)
Key match - Munster v Neath-Swansea Ospreys, week five. The biggest test of Munster’s Thomond record of one defeat in 27 games, and the game that will decide the group winners. Can the Ospreys keep their form?
Poor Five - Newcastle (Powergen Cup winners)
Key match - Edinburgh v Newcastle, week four. If Falcons are serious about qualifying, both Edinburgh games are vital. This one, at what will probably be Murrayfield’s biggest non-international, non-cup final crowd of the season, will hopefully give Falcons at least their third win.
Pool Six - Gloucester (English sixth seeds, 4th in ZP)
Key match - Stade Francais v Gloucester, week one. Gloucester win (which they’re capable of) and they’ll win the group. The main thing is to not be too damaged by the game or result.