Heineken Cup Betting Preview Round 2
By Wellsaint
October 28 2004
The second round of Heineken Cup pool matches takes place this coming weekend - here are my thoughts on the likely outcomes. With the weather still unsettled, giving up large numbers of points on the handicap will be strictly for the brave! Most of the games this weekend are likely to be close.
Heineken Cup Round 2 Betting Preview
Pool One
Last week: Leicester 37 Calvisano 6: Wasps 25 Biarritz 12
Calvisano v Wasps
Realistically anything other than an away win would be a major shock, although Calvisano are capable of running up a good score whilst losing. I take Wasps to win this by thirty.
Biarritz v Leicester
This is arguably the game of the weekend - and for me, will provide an indication of just how good Leicester are. If they manage to win this game, I think this will provide them with the platform to go on and win the group. Biarritz are no pushovers at home and this will provide a stern test for the Tigers. I take Biarritz to win by four.
Pool Two
Last week: Bath 22 Bourgoin 12: Treviso 9 Leinster 25
Bourgoin v Treviso
With the limited knowledge I have of these teams, this is not an easy game to assess that accurately, but I take Bourgoin to win - by around 15 points. Treviso are top of their league, and I think that Bourgoin would be the next weakest side in the group. The return leg could be an interesting call...
Leinster v Bath
Leinster were by all accounts not that impressive against Treviso and come up against a Bath side having a reasonable, if unspectacular thus far, season. I take Leinster to win by 9.
Pool Three:
Last week: Llanelli 6 Toulouse 9: Glasgow 9 NORTHAMPTON 13 (not a typo!)
Toulouse v Glasgow
Last week's games in this pool were both played in quagmire conditions and therefore may not represent the most reliable formguide. I know this, however: Toulouse are top of the French Top16, and Glasgow are struggling in the Celtic League. Toulouse to win, probably by as many as thirty points.
Northampton v Llanelli
Both sides are struggling formwise this season, but Saints possibly have the edge after a confidence boosting win last weekend. Llanelli, whilst losing to Toulouse, looked dangerous at times - Dwayne Peel in particular having an excellent game given the conditions. Making a prediction this early regarding the result is made more tricky by the fact I haven't at this time seen the Saints line-up (or the line-outs, come to that!) But this really is a must win, and let's face it, we owe them, don't we? Saints to win by five.
Pool Four
Last week: Castres 38 Neath-Swansea Ospreys 17: Munster 15 Harlequins 9
Harlequins v Castres
Quins, still winless (but at least achieving some consistency, losing both their last two games 15-9) face Castres at the Stoop this weekend. By all accounts, Quins are improving, and the last two narrow losses (against Leicester and against Munster in Limerick) indicate that they are a side that should be winning before long. Castres beat the Ospreys with something to spare, in a game that the bookmakers thought would be the closest of the weekend. I expect a very close game, with Quins getting their first win of the season by four points.
Neath-Swansea Ospreys v Munster
As I indicated last week, the Heineken Cup would indicate just how good the Ospreys were. So far, the signs are not good. However, they have the ideal chance to put things right when Munster come to town this weekend. Munster are, by their standards, having a poor season, and the Ospreys must fancy their chances of winning this game at home. When these teams met in the Celtic League at the start of the season, Ospreys won by 34-17 at home. Another tight call, but I'll give the Ospreys another chance at this level and take them to
win by five.
Pool Five
Last week: Perpignan 23 Edinburgh 0: Newport Gwent Dragons 6 Newcastle 10
Edinburgh v Newport Gwent Dragons
Last week's two losers in this pool meet in what might almost be considered an eliminator even at this early stage. Difficult to know what to make of Edinburgh's performance - I thought Perpignan were at times wasteful (and the kicking was from the Gregor Townsend school of penalty kicks!) Newport's game was affected badly by the weather, and their loss came down to one error that led to the Newcastle try. Newport's league form is better, although Edinburgh have only had two home games thus far. Another close one, Newport by six.
Newcastle v Perpignan
Newcastle take on Perpignan at Kingston Park looking to continue winning ways after last week's slog in the rain at Newport. Perpignan will not have the luxury of being able to be as wasteful as they were against Edinburgh, but will provide a stern test of the Falcons credentials in this competition. Another tight one to call (are there ANY easy games to predict this weekend?!) As I've said previously, I think Perpignan could well be the winners this year - and I take them to edge out the Falcons in a close game by two points.
Pool Six
Last week: Ulster 21 Cardiff 16: Stade Francais 39 Gloucester 31
Cardiff v Stade Francais
Stade Francais travel to Cardiff on the back of an at times quite breathtaking performance against Gloucester - what a contrast it was to the other games shown this weekend (although the weather was a large factor in this as well, there's no doubt of that). On paper, and looking at league positions, you would think this should be an easy win for Stade. However,Cardiff have only played two games at home, winning both. I take Stade to win, but probably only by six points. This could be a very interesting betting proposition if Cardiff are given a double-figure head start on the handicap.
Gloucester v Ulster
Ulster kicked their way to victory against Cardiff last week- that's no way to win a Heineken Cup, surely?! Gloucester just missed out on a bonus point against Stade, playing well for the first half and in the latter stages of the second but were blitzed away with four tries after half time. Ulster's track record away at Zurich Premiership sides is not good, having been on the end of some heavy defeats, and I expect Gloucester to win this with some ease - Gloucester by 18.