Heineken Cup Betting Preview Round Three
By Wellsaint
December 3 2004
Europe takes centre stage again for the next two weekends with the return of the Heineken Cup. So far Saints are two from two - but will we be three from three come 4.45 on Saturday? My pick on this game, plus the other 11 games analysed, below...
Fri night
Pool 4 - live on Sky - Castres v Munster
Likely to be a close game - Castres will be tough to beat at home. Munster are in and out this season, and Castres aren't the most consistent side - but I still take Castres to edge this, if only by three points. Handicap Line: Castres level start to minus three. Recommendation: At levels, Castres is the bet. Giving up one point is (just) acceptable.
Saturday's games
Pool Six - live on Sky, 1pm kick off - Stade Francais v Ulster
Stade are the only team in the competition on the maximum 10 points. They should make it 15 over a Ulster side that never seems to travel particularly well. Stade by 20, possibly a good deal more. No handicap line as yet.
Pool Two - Benetton Treviso v Bath Rugby
Treviso shocked us all by beating Bourgoin in France and can no longer be regarded as the group whipping boys. A hard, hard game to call, but Bath should edge it, if only by seven points or so. Handicap line: Treviso receive a eight or nine point start - too close to my call, recommendation: therefore swerved.
Pool Five - Dragons v Perpignan
Perpignan go into this game in joint 2nd place in the group and will be looking to do the double over the Dragons. I think that they will find it tough but may well come through and win narrowly - Perpignan by four. Handicap line: Dragons minus four to minus five - Recommendation - this makes PERPIGNAN +5 a good bet.
Pool Three - Saints v Toulouse - 3pm, yes you read that right, 3pm kick off!!
The match of the weekend (well I am going to say that, aren't I?!) Toulouse are currently third (from memory) in the France Top 16, and we're, well, on the way back up (please let it be so.) In this week's Midol reference is made to Toulouse's record playing ZP sides in England - played eight different teams, won three, lost five. Can it be nine teams, won three, lost six by 4.45 Saturday? It's a very, very tall ask for the new coaching team.
That said, there is a school of thought that says this is exactly the kind of game Saints would want at this stage - a game where we go in as definite underdogs, and then (hopefully) overperform (and that's not a word we've used a lot this season!) Toulouse certainly have injury problems, added to in France's heavy loss to New Zealand last Saturday. If Saints win this, it will be by two or three points - if Toulouse win, spin the roulette wheel. A difficult, difficult call. If the handicap betting gives Saints a start of over one try (i.e. eight or more) I could make a case for backing Northampton with the start - if the handicap were double figures, I would be extremely interested! Realistic call - Toulouse by six. Handicap line: Northampton recieve a seven to nine point start. Recommendation:
The only realistic call is Northampton with a nine point start, although it's hardly the bet of the season. If the weather were to be particularly foul, then my confidence in this bet would increase.
Pool Two - live on Sky, 5.15pm kick off - Is Heroes open? Bet it's not! -
Leinster v Bourgoin
Leinster tend to win their home games and should make no mistake against Bourgoin, who, despite going well in the French league, have yet to pick up a point in this competition. They won't start on Saturday. Leinster by fifteen. No handicap line as yet.
Pool One - Biarritz Olympique v Calvisano
Biarritz should be too good for Calvisano and I take them to win by twenty, maybe more. Handicap line: Calvisano receive a 34 to 35 point start and could be the call on that basis. Recommendation: Calvisano +35, if you think that they can defend this start.
Pool Six - live on Sky, 7.30pm - what's Domino's number again? - Gloucester v Cardiff
Order the pizza, chill the beer, Saturday night live rugby's here (hardly up to WMS's high standard, but there y'are). Gloucester should beat Cardiff with something to spare - Gloucester by fifteen. No handicap line as yet.
Sunday's games
Pool Three - live on Sky, 1pm - Glasgow v Llanelli
I hesistate to say that these two teams are out of the competition (these words could come back to haunt me) - but effectively this is something of an elimination game. Each side winning their home leg would probably mean neither team would progress. If either team is likely to win both games, I'd think it was more likely to be Llanelli. But I think that Glasgow may just hold them in a tight game. Glasgow by two. Handicap line: Glasgow by two to three. Recommendation: Swerve, big stylee.
Pool Five - Newcastle v Edinburgh
Newcastle are top of the group and I can see them going three for three in this game and beating Edinburgh - likely margin of victory? Eight points. Handicap line: Newcastle minus 13 to minus 14 - Recommendation - Edinburgh +14 is a fair bet.
Pool Six - live on Sky, 3pm - Wasps v Leicester
Well, if our game ain't top billing, this most certainly is. The two most successful English club sides of the last few years get it on in a double header over two successive weekends. Indeed, this weekend's fixture list will be reversed next weekend - that means we play Toulouse - in la ville rose - two weeks before Xmas - WHAHEY!! (I can't wait, does it show?!) Anyhow, I think both games will go with home advantage; indeed, it wouldn't surprise me if the aggregate scores over the two legs were the same. I take Wasps to win a close one by five. Handicap line: Wasps minus three to minus four - again, this is tight, so the Recommendation - no bet.
Pool Four - Ospreys v Harlequins
Harlequins are something of a relevation over the past few weeks and this week face an Ospreys side with only one point in the competition. Not an easy game to call, (again!), but I think Quins may continue their run and come back over the Severn Bridge with a victory by five points. Handicap line: Ospreys minus six to minus seven. Recommendation: Do the bookies ever look at recent form in rugby? It appears not - HARLEQUINS +7 the bet of the weekend.
Best bet of the weekend:
HARLEQUINS +7 over Ospreys
Next best bet of the weekend:
PERPIGNAN +5 over Dragons