Heineken European Cup Betting Preview Rd 5

By Wellsaint
January 7 2005

This weekend the Heineken Cup is back, and several of the qualification issues will be clearer come Sunday night. For Saints, there is a tricky trip to Llanelli in a must win game that is also being shown live on Sky Sports on Sunday lunchtime. Guess who's going out to lunch this week?...

Heineken Cup Pool Matches Round 5 Betting Preview

Twelve matches to look at. I will look at the games pool by pool. Two wealth warnings: be wary of betting on games where neither team has much to play for,
and with another belt of wind and rain due, keep an eye on the weather forecasts.

Pool One

Leicester take on Biarritz on Sunday in a game that, if they were to win, would give them the advantage in this tight group. Leicester have some injury concerns, but I take them to overcome Biarritz by seven. Wasps need a convincing win over Calvisano after losing to Leicester twice before Xmas and I think they will win by twenty points or more.

Pool Two

Bath are fighting for their lives in this competition and face one of only two unbeaten sides in the shape of Leinster. Bath have a lengthy injury list and although they have home advantage I take Leinster to win this game by ten. The other game in the group is between Treviso and Bourgoin. There are many reasons NOT to bet on this game - Treviso have a slight chance of qualification, Bourgoin must surely put some effort into the game (after being invited to explain the 92-17 loss in Dublin to the ERC) - my guess is Treviso by ten, my advice is, not even with stolen.

Pool Three

Glasgow take on Toulouse on a pitch that has been passed fit for play (if it's anything like it was when we played them, it could be a bit of a leveller!) I had Toulouse down to win this by 18. However, I think with the pitch factor, I would halve this margin to 9. In the other game in the group we travel to Llanelli for a must win game. Llanelli are not out of the competition, and if they beat Saints can set up a "winner takes all" at Stade Ernest Wallon next Friday. In what could well be the tightest game of the weekend, I take Saints to win by three.

Pool Four

Munster are at home to the Ospreys this weekend; the Ospreys are proving to be a bit of a surprise package this year, but I think Munster should prevail by around 12 points. In the other game in the group, Castres can keep their interests alive by doing something fairly nasty to Quins, who have other priorities. Castres should win by 20 points.

Pool Five

Perpignan v Newcastle is one of the matches of the weekend, featuring as it does the other team that currently have an unbeaten record in the competition. I can't see it lasting past this weekend however, and take Perpignan to win by nine. In the other game, Newport should beat Edinburgh by around 10 points.

Pool Six

Ulster host Gloucester tonight and for those of who that read this column regularly it will come as no surprise to know that I'm tipping Ulster to win this game by six, especially if the conditions at Ravenhill are wet and windy. In the other game in the group, I take Stade Francais to give Cardiff a hard game and to win by twenty-five points.