Guinness Premiership Betting Preview week Three

By Well Saint
September 16 2005

I believe it was when Barnsley were in the football elite, and they were near the top, there was a little ditty sung to a vaguely familiar tune - along the lines of: The Premiership is upside down The Premiership is upside down We're going to Europe with the Wednesday And the Leeds are going down

Well, I don't know if the Leeds are going down (although they are bottom) but there is an element of surprise in finding out that Bristol are top after two weeks! (Then again, so were we last year.) Fair play to them - they've ground out their wins in two tight games. Elsewhere last week, Wasps and Leicester shared 58 points evenly, Gloucester won at the death against Sale, and we registered our first entry in the win column with a win in the monsoon-like conditions at the Rec.

So what have we got to look forward to this week?

Bristol v Gloucester

Well, who would have thought it? Two games and two wins for the new boys! Gloucester take the short trip down the M5 to the Mem this weekend having edged Sale out in somewhat contraversial circumstances last week. This game could well end up being the closest of the weekend - and with it being a local derby, anything could happen. Gloucester ground out a draw against Worcester on the opening weekend - and it wouldn't surprise me if the result was the same this weekend.

Prediction - a draw. Betting line: Bristol receive a start of +2 to +4 (depending on which bookie you use) - Bristol +4 worth a small bet.

Leeds v Wasps

Leeds are bottom after two games and face a Wasps side who rather gifted Leicester a share of the points at the Causeway last week. Leeds haven't had a home game as yet (unless you count Twickenham as home!) but I think Wasps will be too good for them. Prediction - Wasps by ten. Betting line: Wasps have to give up between six and eight points which they should be able to do - Wasps +6 worth a medium sized bet.

Leicester v Bath

Bath, after losing their opening two, face the trip to Welford Road this weekend to meet a Tigers side who, if they are supposed to be in transition, show worryingly few signs of it affecting their performances on the field. I can't really see any other result than a Tigers win by twelve points and possibly more. Betting line: exactly 12 point favourites (14 points in a place) - swerved for betting purposes.

Saints v Newcastle

Well, where did that come from?! I certainly wasn't expecting the result last week - here's hoping that the performance can give the lads some confidence and hopefully lead us to a similar result on Saturday. Damien Browne and John Rudd are both injured - Browne's place is taken by Academy player Mark Easter. For Newcastle, Sicknote is (unsurprisingly) off again with his place taken by Dave Walder. Former Saint Robbie Morris is in the starting XV for Newcastle. The result? I think this game even at this stage of the season is a MUST win. I don't think Newcastle are amongst the leading lights in this division, and we must look to our potentially easier (NOT the same as easy) home games to make sure we don't spend a long time at the wrong end of the table. One swallow does not a summer make. The other thing that must be rectified is the penalty count - we were committing three times as many penalties as Bath
last weekend. Assuming the penalty count can be kept down - and bear in mind the referee we have gave a penalty try last Saturday that was the decisive score - and that we aren't playing University Challenge rugby (giving up starters for ten points with the car park pass - assuming their team coaches' car park pass is more professionally organised
than the supporters' ones) I predict a Saints win by twelve points. Betting line: Saints are seven to nine point favourites and are therefore worth a medium bet to give up seven points to Falcons.

Sale v London Irish

- Sale and London Irish both lost last week in games where penalty tries were awarded. With home advantage, Sale are the more likely winners here, and I take them to do so by eight points. Betting line: Irish receive a ten to
twelve point start, and therefore the logical call is Irish receiving twelve points, but there are better bets to be had this weekend.

Worcester v Saracens

Both winners last week, Worcester and Sarries meet at Sixways in what I assess to be the second hardest game to call of the weekend. Both teams seem to be on an upward curve at present, and I take Worcester to continue their excellent start to the season and to win by four points. Betting line: interesting - the bookies rate Sarries three to four point favourites. On that basis, the best bet of the weekend is Worcester receiving a four point start at home against Sarries.

BEST BET

Worcester +4 vs Sarries

NEXT BEST BETS

Northampton -7 vs Falcons; Wasps -6 vs Leeds

If you are going to Franklin's this weekend, don't forget that it's the Annual COYSDC picnic, organised by Bob Stainsby, to be held in the car park on the back pitches prior to the game (which, don't forget, is a 2.45 kick off, so set off early!)
Bring some food and drink with you, and meet some of the board regulars - I will be putting in an appearance at some point during proceedings, no doubt. Also bring some spare money with you, as the picnic marks your first opportunity to buy a Saints with Hearts wristband (in gold, black and green, naturally) in order to raise funds for the British Heart Foundation.

The Saints with Heart Walk this year is being held on Saturday 15 October before the home game with London Irish - please see the SWH4 messageboard on comeonyousaints.com for more details of this event - which last year raised
in excess of £20,000 for the BHF.

It's almost here - the first home game - so COME ON YOU SAINTS!!!!!!!!