Heineken Cup Pool Betting Preview

By WellSaint
October 19 2005

Eagerly awaited, Wellsaint's Betting Preview for the Heineken Pool stage will have all punters reaching for the phone. See if you agree with his picks!

Heineken Cup Pool Preview 

Pool One

 

Castres, Newport Dragons, Munster, Sale

One of the more difficult pools to predict, where no-one can be totally ruled out, but jusged on their performances to date, the weakest team in the pool is most probably going to be the Dragons.  Castres will provide their usual stern test in France, but there is still a niggling doubt as to how well they will travel (and Stockport and Limerick will not be easy tests.)  Munster at Thomand Park is also never an easy task - but I think if any side can do it, it may well be Sale.  Top of the Premiership at present, and having recruited a group of forwards to match their impressive back line,

I just tip this pool to go Sale's way.

 

Pool One Winner: Sale

 

 

Pool Two

 

Calvisano, Cardiff, Leeds Tykes, Perpignan

Surely the easiest pool of the sis, with an Italian side and a winless Leeds side in the pool.  Perpignan should win this with something to spare - at least five wins out of six I'd say if not all six.  Cardiff may edge out Leeds for runners-up unless Calvisano can pull something out of the bag - not totally out of the question in this sub-par grouping.

 

Pool Two winner: Perpignan

 

 

Pool Three

 

Clermont, Leicester, Ospreys, Stade Francais

Again, the weakest side in the group will probably be the the Welsh team in the shape of the Ospreys, though it could be interesting to see who they manage to beat at home - that could go some way to deciding the final make-up of this group.  Of the two French sides, Stade Francais would appear to have the edge, although Clermont certainly won't be a pushover.  Leicester's progress would appear to depend on whether they can achieve a 100% home record - and with their home record against French clubs being somewhat patchy, that may be a big ask.

 

Pool Three winner: Stade Francais

 

 

Pool Four

 

Treviso, Biarritz, Saracens, Ulster

Possibly the second weakest pool, and I take Biarritz to win it - their sternest test will come at Ravenhill against Ulster.  It's difficult to see Ulster winning much on the road though, except perhaps in Italy, and four wins is unlikely to see them through to the next round.  Saracens will I suspect struggle against Biarritz and in Ulster. 

Pool Four winner: Biarritz

 

 

Pool Five

 

Bath, Bourgoin, Glasgow, Leinster

This is likely to be a three-way fight - Glasgow are likely to be well out of their depth, although they may well surprise someone at home.  Bath have had a couple of confidence boosting wins recently, but I think this group may well come down to the results between Bourgoin and Leinster.  Bourgoin look to be on an upward curve and are doing well in the Top 14, and I take them to just edge this pool.

 Pool Five winner: Bourgoin

 

Pool Six

 

Edinburgh, Llanelli, Wasps, Toulouse

 

With all due respect to both Edinburgh and Llanelli, this is likely to boil down to a straight fight between Wasps and Toulouse.  The game in Toulouse has been switched to the Stade de Toulouse (I believe the first time Toulouse have switched a pool game?) A very difficult call - but I think Toulouse just have the edge over Wasps. 

Pool Six winner: Toulouse

 

Two best runners up:

 

Even more difficult to predict than usual.  Pool Six could give us one of the two, on the basis that I can't see either Llanelli or Edinburgh winning much against Wasps or Toulouse.  Pool Five - I think will be winner only; pool four, a similar situation.Pool Three could give us a strong runner up but only if Leicester or Clermont really struggle.  More likely, the other best runner up could come from Pool One or Pool Two: Pool One, because Munster or Castres may well sweep their home games and be able to get enough results on the road; or Pool Two, because Perpignan win easily and either Leeds or Cardiff get enough results against the others to take the (in all probability) 8th place in the quarters.  My predictions are that the best runners up will be Wasps and ... no, too tight even for me to call!

 

Betting: There's no news on the Pool betting as yet; something of a surprise, with a little over 48 hours till the start of the tournament.  So the only betting we can look at is the Outright betting to win the Cup.  Best odds as at 10.30am Wednesday 19th October: 

4/1 joint-favourites Biarritz, Toulouse

15/2 Wasps

8/1 Stade Francais

10/1 Leicester

12/1 Perpignan

16/1 Sale, Munster

20/1 Leinster

40/1 and above all others

 

My first observation is that the price for Leicester is ridiculously low, and probably reflects past glories more than the likely possibility of winning - indeed, they will do well to get out of their group.  In a similar vein Munster's quote appears to have more than a touch of previous form as opposed to likely outcomes.  One price for me stands out and that is the 12/1 on offer for Perpignan (yes I know I tipped them last year, but...) Here's the rationale: Perpignan are in the weakest group.  Even for a team that doesn't travel particularly well, visits to Calvisano, Leeds and Cardiff are hardly the most taxing that could be on offer.  Realistically, if they can win five games out of six, with the other groups looking tighter than ever, they should get a home draw in the quarter finals.  The bet I would strike is Perpignan each-way for the Cup at 12/1 - because at one-half the odds a place to reach the final, provided they get to the semis intact, you would effectively have 6/1 to half your stake (or 5/2 to your whole stake) about them winning the semi final.  

I can't see the winners of the Cup being anything other than a French team - not just because of the salary cap, but because the teams representing England are not the best six teams in the Premiership (compare that to France, where the teams currently lying one to seven in the Top 14 are the French teams in the Heineken Cup.)  I expect Leeds, Bath and Saracens to struggle, whilst Leicester are in a difficult group, Wasps have been paired with Toulouse, and even Sale, the only English team I have predicted to win a group, have Castres and Munster in their group.  It's not going to be an easy task for the English clubs this year.  Should Stade Francais get through their group, 8/1 would represent fair value.  Biarritz and Toulouse are worthy favourites but 4/1 is very short - at three times the price, provided you back them each-way and my theory holds up (and they win through to the final, of course!) Perpignan are the play of the tournament.